Four years ago (June 2010), I was pointing out how Agorocracy vs. Democracy were fighting it out in EUrope and the world. How the financial system had gone out of bounds compared to other aspects of our lives. Since then, 44 months have passed. The speaker has slimmed down (see video) and so have the budgets of Greece, Spain and other troubled Euro member states.
Cyprus banks got a haircut last year.
But what is the state of the competition between Agorocracy and Democracy today, February 2014?
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Friday, November 30, 2012
Should all economists live in Greece of 2012?
My first two university degrees were focused on decision sciences as applied to transport(ation) systems: traffic, public transportation, trains, corporate logistics and of course, at least in my case, airports and airlines. I have not really practiced the trade, except for policy analysis of EU transport policy. I used to say and I believed it that any transportation analyst/planner should spend some time working as a taxi driver. I have always been inspired by international (long haul) tracking as well. Maybe I should have practiced one of these two professions anyway. Maybe.
But my point, by some analogy, is that any economist should spent significant time living the life of "people in the streets" of economies such as the Greek economy in 2012 (the econ stats of which are, they say, comparable to the ones in the US during the great crash 80 years ago). How long for? I would say at least 4 months, maybe 6. Maybe even a year.
But my point, by some analogy, is that any economist should spent significant time living the life of "people in the streets" of economies such as the Greek economy in 2012 (the econ stats of which are, they say, comparable to the ones in the US during the great crash 80 years ago). How long for? I would say at least 4 months, maybe 6. Maybe even a year.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Dynamics (Europe): Only Greece is Greece!
In the aftermath of Monday night's Eurogroup decision on Greece (a very complicated package/deal the elements of which and their between the lines not clear to the writer, still, 24++ hrs later, but my MBA does help, to a certain extent, to begin to try to understand this complex financial deal), some in Ireland (and I am sure in Portugal too) are wondering "what does Greece have" that they do not have (implicit in that is the working assumption that the deal Greece got was, after all is said (and analysed) a good one).
Well, for one, with all due respect, Greece did not have politicians arguing that their country is NOT Greece. That is if I recall well the case for Ireland and Portugal, at least. I only call it as I remember it, vividly with we "are not Greece" political chants of sorts still in my ears from many many months ago).
Yes, Ireland does not have sunshine. I love Ireland and I wish it did. Not a fan of humidity. Greece never had or claimed to have a Tiger, either. Nor does it benefit from a corporate tax regime that via transfer pricing seems to suck corporate taxable income from other national tax systems, in the EU, Eurozone and beyond (in a very "our taxpayers" age, eg in Germany, The Netherlands, Finland, UK even USA - see other blog posts for the folly of that "out taxpayers" argument though, at least inside the EU and Eurozone).
What Ireland and Portugal do not have, either, is a huge pile of mud that has been thrown at them in the last three years, in the form of "lazy" and other epithets.
It was almost clear to most from the start that the first deal Greece got ("Memorandum 1") was meant to be punitive and, what is more, discourage Ireland, Portugal and other Euro members from ever asking for one.
It also seems clear to at least some commentators of the Eurogroup decision that Greece got a good enough deal considering the potential events re Spain, Italy, increasingly (?), France. And the German political timing/scene (elections next autumn). One that may be revised when the time (in Euro and German politics) is "right". At least that is one way to look at things. There are others.
Well, for one, with all due respect, Greece did not have politicians arguing that their country is NOT Greece. That is if I recall well the case for Ireland and Portugal, at least. I only call it as I remember it, vividly with we "are not Greece" political chants of sorts still in my ears from many many months ago).
Yes, Ireland does not have sunshine. I love Ireland and I wish it did. Not a fan of humidity. Greece never had or claimed to have a Tiger, either. Nor does it benefit from a corporate tax regime that via transfer pricing seems to suck corporate taxable income from other national tax systems, in the EU, Eurozone and beyond (in a very "our taxpayers" age, eg in Germany, The Netherlands, Finland, UK even USA - see other blog posts for the folly of that "out taxpayers" argument though, at least inside the EU and Eurozone).
What Ireland and Portugal do not have, either, is a huge pile of mud that has been thrown at them in the last three years, in the form of "lazy" and other epithets.
It was almost clear to most from the start that the first deal Greece got ("Memorandum 1") was meant to be punitive and, what is more, discourage Ireland, Portugal and other Euro members from ever asking for one.
It also seems clear to at least some commentators of the Eurogroup decision that Greece got a good enough deal considering the potential events re Spain, Italy, increasingly (?), France. And the German political timing/scene (elections next autumn). One that may be revised when the time (in Euro and German politics) is "right". At least that is one way to look at things. There are others.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
12 points on Greece, crisis, austerity, growth, new national sport, etc
These are some thoughts I tweeted last night before and after the Eurogroup decision on Greece:
1) What is the elephant in the Eurogroup presser room? GDP growth!
2) Reminder: The best way to bring down any debt/GDP ratio is GDP growth. Not rocket science, is it, except for the Euro austerians!
3) The Euro crisis is now in its 4th season! So is Fringe, but it's its final season (for Fringe).
4) If Greece had 1 cent (Ok, maybe 1 euro) for every time int'l media have mentioned Greece in connection to crisis 3 yrs now, it would have no debt by now!
5) In 2004, I wrote an article "after 2004, what?". Tonight I ask, after tonight, what? Greece always needs a real growth model, above all. As again I wrote before, in 2004, Greece needs to make exporting its new national sport.
6) Greece has been extremely loyal to the EU Single Market and the WTO. But alas mostly on the imports side! Needs growth and exports.
7) Greece has a great econ model. It's called Tourism. And assets such a climate. No sense being "Wall St yuppie" in "Jamaica" imho
8) Whether with euro or drachma, Greek economy has to grow. And that means more industry and much much more tourism revenues! And exports.
9) It also needs to develop the companies that will produce products that will replace imports, trade balance is one of the keys to GR growth.
10) Now, and always, Greece needs a growth model that fits it, not imports of models or parts of models from Ireland, Finland, Germany etc! The same applies to every country/economy imho.
11) For Greece, PIIGS and others to achieve growth, a key issue is: What will the Euro exchange rate v-a-v USD, Yuan etc be like 2012-2020/22
12) Romney-Ryan lost and now there seems to be accord on Greece. Seems the world moves in right direction after all!
1) What is the elephant in the Eurogroup presser room? GDP growth!
2) Reminder: The best way to bring down any debt/GDP ratio is GDP growth. Not rocket science, is it, except for the Euro austerians!
3) The Euro crisis is now in its 4th season! So is Fringe, but it's its final season (for Fringe).
4) If Greece had 1 cent (Ok, maybe 1 euro) for every time int'l media have mentioned Greece in connection to crisis 3 yrs now, it would have no debt by now!
5) In 2004, I wrote an article "after 2004, what?". Tonight I ask, after tonight, what? Greece always needs a real growth model, above all. As again I wrote before, in 2004, Greece needs to make exporting its new national sport.
6) Greece has been extremely loyal to the EU Single Market and the WTO. But alas mostly on the imports side! Needs growth and exports.
7) Greece has a great econ model. It's called Tourism. And assets such a climate. No sense being "Wall St yuppie" in "Jamaica" imho
8) Whether with euro or drachma, Greek economy has to grow. And that means more industry and much much more tourism revenues! And exports.
9) It also needs to develop the companies that will produce products that will replace imports, trade balance is one of the keys to GR growth.
10) Now, and always, Greece needs a growth model that fits it, not imports of models or parts of models from Ireland, Finland, Germany etc! The same applies to every country/economy imho.
11) For Greece, PIIGS and others to achieve growth, a key issue is: What will the Euro exchange rate v-a-v USD, Yuan etc be like 2012-2020/22
12) Romney-Ryan lost and now there seems to be accord on Greece. Seems the world moves in right direction after all!
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
So, Greece, Spain and other PIGS, do not lose your humanism!
When you use the same taxi company for years the drivers know you and are even nicer. Today one got meds from pharmacy after the dentist! That is merely an example. The systemic: I didn't come to Greece because I have many more friends than in other places, I came because here I can feel the humanism of strangers compared to... (you know).
So, Greece and other PIGS, do not lose your humanism on account of Merkel etc. It's the biggest competitive advantage/asset you have!
Strangers in Greece ,Greek and foreign, generally give a sh*t that I have a problem with my neck. Very few in other countries I visited those 11 weeks, did.
PS. Do humanism things like that happen in NW Europe, in your experience/POV? If they do, feel free to tweet it. If they do not, ....
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Systemics and Dynamics Live NP Blog, October 31, 2012
Read bottom up to follow the flow:
Evening:
Euro crisis/Troika:
I thought memorandums were supposed to be brief, not as brief as executive summaries, but brief.
There seem to be 2 divergent views re the effect of Sandy on US economy: a) disruption of the recovery b) growth stimulus effect by money spend on the damages, multiplied by a greater than 1.0 factor. As per electoral effects, some think it may prove beneficial for Obama and Dems if seems presidential in his dealing with Sandy effects is deemed effective. Or could backfire. Will it also restore some faith of people in "government" and make collective esprit (eg health care) more popular. Guess we shall see.
Early morning:
EU/Euro/econ/fin crises:
Many admire the Iceland "model" of dealing with it. But they should recall it has a population of 320,000, a total area of 103,000 km2 out there in the Atlantic and a volcano!
More philosophical:
The problem with parents raising their kids with prince/princess aka noble values is that unless they also give them a Principauté, they are in for a rough ride in the "streets" of life.
Philosophical:
Hard times for "princes" and "princesses" (not the real ones, the other ones). Also hard for vagabonds, though. Unless in warmer climates.
Jobs/Career:
For decades now, searching for a job had become a job. In recent years, it has become a career.
Evening:
Euro crisis/Troika:
I thought memorandums were supposed to be brief, not as brief as executive summaries, but brief.
There seem to be 2 divergent views re the effect of Sandy on US economy: a) disruption of the recovery b) growth stimulus effect by money spend on the damages, multiplied by a greater than 1.0 factor. As per electoral effects, some think it may prove beneficial for Obama and Dems if seems presidential in his dealing with Sandy effects is deemed effective. Or could backfire. Will it also restore some faith of people in "government" and make collective esprit (eg health care) more popular. Guess we shall see.
Early morning:
EU/Euro/econ/fin crises:
Many admire the Iceland "model" of dealing with it. But they should recall it has a population of 320,000, a total area of 103,000 km2 out there in the Atlantic and a volcano!
More philosophical:
The problem with parents raising their kids with prince/princess aka noble values is that unless they also give them a Principauté, they are in for a rough ride in the "streets" of life.
Philosophical:
Hard times for "princes" and "princesses" (not the real ones, the other ones). Also hard for vagabonds, though. Unless in warmer climates.
Jobs/Career:
For decades now, searching for a job had become a job. In recent years, it has become a career.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
European myths and real fears: Time to face the truth
Applying logic consistently can lead to some very hardcore argumentation in European Affairs. Especially when coupled with humanism.
Here we go (based on thoughts originally posted via my Twitter account, today):
Xenophobia and "paymasterism" are evidence of insecurity due to policy failures by mostly national policy-makers.
E.g. Angela Merkel and Co. blamed Greeks and other South Europeans to cover up for her own policy failures in 2005-2012. Except for very recently.
Plus, the EU has always been used by national politicians as a scapegoat for their failures but not their successes.
So who should be in more fear of losing their jobs and who should lose them? People or policy makers. Desperate policy makers produce even more desperate policies. Not to mention desperate (for ratings hence ad revenue) media.
So, for voters, focusing at national and local level is in a way a natural reaction, whereas the wise reaction is to focus at Euro, EU level and beyond.
Instead of helping the man/woman in streets feel a tad of stability via their policies, policy makers have been doing the opposite.
Note also that 2 months of somewhat positive propaganda by Merkel and friends re Greece seems (see polls in Germany) to have managed to partly counter 2+ years of negative propaganda. Is that scary or good? Or both?
That is the real state of the EU in 2012. It is time we start discussing those things, not only the agenda the mainstream traditional media and social media set.
Example:
People in NW and North Europe are panicking and blaming foreigners because, imho, they know their national exceptionalisms are a hot air result of propaganda - narratives. They are in real fear. Because they feel/know that their economies are way more un-competitive and cruel than anyone would admit. They are scared of losing their accumulated privileges and fear more than South Europeans, because they know their societies are more cruel than in South Europe.
Yes what I am proposing, after roaming around the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands (NL) in the past 5 weeks and lots of talking with people from all walks of life, observing systemics and dynamics and lots of thinking, is that the real reason Dutch, Finns, Germans, Belgians, Brits are reacting the way they are is: they are scared. Even more scared than South Europeans.
Take a good look for example at the "streets" of any UK, NL or Belgian city. People are "bowling alone" (much more than Greeks or Spaniard are "bowling alone") and they know it.
That is I propose the main way to interpret eg the local results in Antwerp.
So whereas Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy need real policies badly, the NL, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Finland need real policies even more badly. And more humanism (and that is a matter/task for society and thought/opinion leaders, not policy makers per se).
On the other hand, imo what Greeks and Spaniards should really worry about is not labour market reforms but of having lost part of their traditional humanism. Because once that is lost, no laws or rules can after all restore that. And liberalism needs humanism in order to work. Every system does, but liberalism (in the European not US sense of the term) does even more (that is of course why Romney and Ryan should not win the elections in the US, the country where the term "bowling alone" was invented).
The Greek and Spanish labour markets are already a "Kaiadas" (see Ancient Sparta) even without labour market reforms, so what worse can reforms do than admit that reality?
Plus Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese, Italians should look at their national and local "champions" and elites and ask them: What have you done for me lately? In a way they are. In a way.
Being pro-EU doesn't mean being pro European Commission, pro EU Council, etc. It means being pro the common interests of 500,000,000. Because in the world systemics and dynamics of the epoch, mainly at continental and world level can effective solutions be formulated and implemented. But with a systems analysis approach that looks at the forest and at the trees at the same time. These are indeed testing times for policy makers.
The European media and social media should not focus on the symptoms (they do make for good copy, true) but at the diseases. I know it's hard.
Even more analysis on this complex topic and implications for policy makers, the civil society and economic operators at EU, Euro, national and local levels, is available upon request.
Here we go (based on thoughts originally posted via my Twitter account, today):
Xenophobia and "paymasterism" are evidence of insecurity due to policy failures by mostly national policy-makers.
E.g. Angela Merkel and Co. blamed Greeks and other South Europeans to cover up for her own policy failures in 2005-2012. Except for very recently.
Plus, the EU has always been used by national politicians as a scapegoat for their failures but not their successes.
So who should be in more fear of losing their jobs and who should lose them? People or policy makers. Desperate policy makers produce even more desperate policies. Not to mention desperate (for ratings hence ad revenue) media.
So, for voters, focusing at national and local level is in a way a natural reaction, whereas the wise reaction is to focus at Euro, EU level and beyond.
Instead of helping the man/woman in streets feel a tad of stability via their policies, policy makers have been doing the opposite.
Note also that 2 months of somewhat positive propaganda by Merkel and friends re Greece seems (see polls in Germany) to have managed to partly counter 2+ years of negative propaganda. Is that scary or good? Or both?
That is the real state of the EU in 2012. It is time we start discussing those things, not only the agenda the mainstream traditional media and social media set.
Example:
People in NW and North Europe are panicking and blaming foreigners because, imho, they know their national exceptionalisms are a hot air result of propaganda - narratives. They are in real fear. Because they feel/know that their economies are way more un-competitive and cruel than anyone would admit. They are scared of losing their accumulated privileges and fear more than South Europeans, because they know their societies are more cruel than in South Europe.
Yes what I am proposing, after roaming around the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands (NL) in the past 5 weeks and lots of talking with people from all walks of life, observing systemics and dynamics and lots of thinking, is that the real reason Dutch, Finns, Germans, Belgians, Brits are reacting the way they are is: they are scared. Even more scared than South Europeans.
Take a good look for example at the "streets" of any UK, NL or Belgian city. People are "bowling alone" (much more than Greeks or Spaniard are "bowling alone") and they know it.
That is I propose the main way to interpret eg the local results in Antwerp.
So whereas Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy need real policies badly, the NL, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Finland need real policies even more badly. And more humanism (and that is a matter/task for society and thought/opinion leaders, not policy makers per se).
On the other hand, imo what Greeks and Spaniards should really worry about is not labour market reforms but of having lost part of their traditional humanism. Because once that is lost, no laws or rules can after all restore that. And liberalism needs humanism in order to work. Every system does, but liberalism (in the European not US sense of the term) does even more (that is of course why Romney and Ryan should not win the elections in the US, the country where the term "bowling alone" was invented).
The Greek and Spanish labour markets are already a "Kaiadas" (see Ancient Sparta) even without labour market reforms, so what worse can reforms do than admit that reality?
Plus Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese, Italians should look at their national and local "champions" and elites and ask them: What have you done for me lately? In a way they are. In a way.
Being pro-EU doesn't mean being pro European Commission, pro EU Council, etc. It means being pro the common interests of 500,000,000. Because in the world systemics and dynamics of the epoch, mainly at continental and world level can effective solutions be formulated and implemented. But with a systems analysis approach that looks at the forest and at the trees at the same time. These are indeed testing times for policy makers.
The European media and social media should not focus on the symptoms (they do make for good copy, true) but at the diseases. I know it's hard.
Even more analysis on this complex topic and implications for policy makers, the civil society and economic operators at EU, Euro, national and local levels, is available upon request.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Europe's social volcano: NW Europe compared to Athens
Until when are NW Europeans going to continue living their lives in quiet desperation? Policies must alleviate pressures now! Imho that is.
Greeks and Spaniards are more extrovert, but if an already active social volcano erupts in NW Europe, I am afraid that Athens will seem a paradise by comparison.
Europe: In the old days there was America and its Ellis Island. In 2012, Mars? This time Europe must solve its problems w/o emigration to America, America or (intra-European or another Europe caused World) war.
PS. To what extent has war been replaced by trade and finance? Food for thought.
More analysis on this topic and implications for policy are available upon request. Contact me.
Greeks and Spaniards are more extrovert, but if an already active social volcano erupts in NW Europe, I am afraid that Athens will seem a paradise by comparison.
Europe: In the old days there was America and its Ellis Island. In 2012, Mars? This time Europe must solve its problems w/o emigration to America, America or (intra-European or another Europe caused World) war.
PS. To what extent has war been replaced by trade and finance? Food for thought.
More analysis on this topic and implications for policy are available upon request. Contact me.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
7 points in defense of Greece
1) Greece does not use nuclear for energy thus does not risk the safety of others, as many other EU/Eurozone states (and others) do.
2) Greece does not use ultra low corporate taxation, thus does not take taxable income away from other EU/Eurozone and other countries/states.
3) Due to geo position (and lack of a US of E), Greece has to spend for defense per capita more than anyone in the EU. EU/Eurozone "paymasters" Germany, France, NL are among the main sellers of arms.
4) Greece has been too loyal a believer in the EU Single Market concept (but alas only on the imports side)
5) Greece joined the EEC and then the EMU/Euro primarily not for economic but other (especially security) reasons (many others did too).
7) Greece's geo morphology (islands etc) breaks its internal market into many local ones thus hindering economies of scale and competition.
2) Greece does not use ultra low corporate taxation, thus does not take taxable income away from other EU/Eurozone and other countries/states.
3) Due to geo position (and lack of a US of E), Greece has to spend for defense per capita more than anyone in the EU. EU/Eurozone "paymasters" Germany, France, NL are among the main sellers of arms.
4) Greece has been too loyal a believer in the EU Single Market concept (but alas only on the imports side)
5) Greece joined the EEC and then the EMU/Euro primarily not for economic but other (especially security) reasons (many others did too).
6) Greece's geo location (no land borders with the rest of the EU until 2007 and none with the rest of the Eurozone even today) affects the competitiveness of its exports (existing and potential).
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Austerity, marathons and high jumping
German and other commentators are now arguing that Greece has not shown enough progress.
On the other hand, stats from Jan-July 2012 have shown that the Greek budget has performed better than targets/expectations.
So is the claim of the commentators valid for the pre-2012 period?
Well, my view is the following:
Austerity is like (I usually don't like to treat for analysis purposes states or economies etc as persons but making an exception only for the purpose of demonstration of a point via an eloquent metaphor) starving someone, then making him/her run a marathon and accuse him/her when he/she faints at the 5th km from starvation and fatigue!
In my opinion, the goals set by the two Greek MoUs (MoU = Memorandum of Understanding) were too high/unrealistic/punitive. When this happens then even the achievement of lesser goals is hampered. To use another metaphor, from track and field. when the bar is set too high, this causes counter-productive "stress" to the athlete, thus can lead to very poor results! More realistic bailout terms/goals would have caused less "stress" thus could be reached if not at 100% at least near that.
On the other hand, stats from Jan-July 2012 have shown that the Greek budget has performed better than targets/expectations.
So is the claim of the commentators valid for the pre-2012 period?
Well, my view is the following:
Austerity is like (I usually don't like to treat for analysis purposes states or economies etc as persons but making an exception only for the purpose of demonstration of a point via an eloquent metaphor) starving someone, then making him/her run a marathon and accuse him/her when he/she faints at the 5th km from starvation and fatigue!
In my opinion, the goals set by the two Greek MoUs (MoU = Memorandum of Understanding) were too high/unrealistic/punitive. When this happens then even the achievement of lesser goals is hampered. To use another metaphor, from track and field. when the bar is set too high, this causes counter-productive "stress" to the athlete, thus can lead to very poor results! More realistic bailout terms/goals would have caused less "stress" thus could be reached if not at 100% at least near that.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Spot the faults in the Merkelian logic
According to BBC News, after the results of the elections in France and Greece on May 6, Angela Merkel argumented as follows:
""It is a matter of principle in Europe that following elections, be they in small or large countries, we do not renegotiate what's already been agreed," she said. "Otherwise we could not work together in Europe."
Spot the faults in the above logic-argumentation.
""It is a matter of principle in Europe that following elections, be they in small or large countries, we do not renegotiate what's already been agreed," she said. "Otherwise we could not work together in Europe."
Spot the faults in the above logic-argumentation.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Searching for the centre
Both Britain and Greece (as well as other countries, including the US) urgently need a genuine centrist political party that can address the policy challenges of the era without ideological sclerosis, using right of centre and left of centre and other policy tools to solve real problems of real people, in the real economy, the real society, in an ever complicated EU and world (WTO, UN, etc).
Can the LibDems be that centrist party in Britain? They can, but they are not and do they want to?
Can the LibDems be that centrist party in Britain? They can, but they are not and do they want to?
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Europe Day 2012: May 6 instead of May 9?
Europe (EU) Day is on May 9 every year. But this year it seems that Europe (EU) day is May 6:
Why?
Because of the elections in France, Greece as well as Schleswig-Holstein; all there crucial not only for a national point of view but an EU (and Euroland) POV as well.
And if one takes account of the UK local elections, including London, of May 3, and other events of the week (see my European Calendar) then one could argue that this week Monday April 30th to May 6 is "Europe Week 2012".
PS. Of course, like other days, such a Valentine's Day, one could argue that in essence days like Europe (EU) Day are or they should be every day of the year!
PS2. Add to them the local elections in some 900 towns in Italy on Sunday and Monday.
Why?
Because of the elections in France, Greece as well as Schleswig-Holstein; all there crucial not only for a national point of view but an EU (and Euroland) POV as well.
And if one takes account of the UK local elections, including London, of May 3, and other events of the week (see my European Calendar) then one could argue that this week Monday April 30th to May 6 is "Europe Week 2012".
PS. Of course, like other days, such a Valentine's Day, one could argue that in essence days like Europe (EU) Day are or they should be every day of the year!
PS2. Add to them the local elections in some 900 towns in Italy on Sunday and Monday.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
For the past 2+ years Europe & the world have been analysing Greece. It's time they start analysing Germany too.
The following thoughts were promoted, partly, by my post yesterday on Ordo-Liberalism and the question of its influence in modern (2012) Germany (NPthinking, March 3, 2012, "Is Ordoliberalism the key to understanding a) the German or b) the Merkel way in Euro-economics"), but the issue has been lingering in my mind for quite some time.
Since the beginning of the so called Greek crisis, more than 2 years ago, economists, financial analysts, journalists of various specialisations and commentators of all kinds in Europe, the US and the rest of the world have been analysing Greece. Its economic, political, policy, social and other systemics and dynamics, some in a systemic, some in even anecdotal ways.
In addition, the economic, political, policy, social, pop cultural and other systemics and dynamics of the US, the UK and maybe a small number of other countries/economies are also a popular subject of scrutiny by economists, financial analysts, journalists of various specialisations and commentators of all kinds. France is one of them. China is another. Russia, in mostly political matters (not too much economic analysis, IME at least in the non-specialised media). Maybe the rest of the BRICS. The rest of the "PIIGS", ie Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy as well.
Of course the "lights" of publicity and the ensuing commentary focus on most countries periodically, in other words, for a day or at most a few days, depending on other news/current affairs.
So, other than Greece in the last 2+ years, the US and the UK are the perennial "champions" of world attention. Their political, economic, social, pop cultural and other dimensions are always in the news, someway, somehow. Part of the reason is that English (be it US, mostly, or UK) is the lingua franca and in spite of the rise of English speaking media in all countries around the world in recent years, plus blogging, tweeting, etc, most of the most read media in Europe and the world remain American and British at least in terms of HQs. Plus the US and English speaking ads are still dominant as markets in the world. These and many other parameters have led to a situation where the "global community" has or thinks it has a pretty good idea - knowledge of the US and the UK.
Recently, Germany has been an often mentioned word in the world media and public opinion agendas, but to a large extent the topics are IMO narrow. Too narrow and not enlightening enough for a country of 82 million, ie 16% of the EU population and 25% of the Eurozone population and about 20% of the EU's GDP (adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity).
The culture of Speaking, Thinking, Discussing, Conversing, Synthesising:
"Suddenly Europe is speaking German" argued Volker Kauder, conservative parliamentary group leader, at the CDU's annual party conference in Leipzig last November (see eg coverage by Spiegel Online). Although it seems that his comment refrreed specifically to the adoption of "budget discipline" as a policy philosophy by other member states, his statement, as can be expected with such remarks, was more widely interpreted,, as Germany wanting to have its Euro and EU partners adopt its "language" (actually thinking) in most/all matters Euro and EU!
For Germany to wish to be heard in all matters Euro and EU, that is a fully valid wish that should be the right and reality for every member state, large or medium or small!
That is though quite different than expecting Germany or any member state to have its way on all or any issue courtesy of mere "size", be it population, GDP or contribution to the EU budget (the "paymaster" rhetorical premise or the "our taxpayers one").
So I think that Germany has to up its efforts in presenting, explaining, discussing with an open mind (in human relations terms as they used to call it in team dynamics and HR) its ideas, its thoughts, its concerns. In other words, an extroverted approach to EU affairs. Capitalising on the art and science of synthesis too. There is after all decades of experience by now in the meetings of the Council of the EU (Ministers) as well as their working groups, staffed by national admin officials mostly posted at the country's Permanent Delegation to the EU, just to mention a few "forums" of discussion, synthesis, and co-decision in the EU and EZ.
But I argue, there is one more thing that needs to be done not only in reference to Germany but all the 27 of the EU. It is even more imperative in Germany's case because of its weight in population and GDP in the EU and the Eurozone or the Europlus: The rest of Europe (and the rest of the world) must start investing more time and effort in analysing - understanding Germany, economically, sociologically, politically, philosophically, etc. Language is an issue, compared to the cases of analysing the US, the UK, Ireland, Australia, Canada, New Zeeland, but not one that cannot be bypassed.
The other issue is that Germany and all Germans, much like the Greeks in that respect, must get used to the idea of being the subject of monitoring, examination, analysis by other Europeans and other humans. In the way that Britons are, to some extent, and some of the Americans. To get used to having their personal views and thoughts asked by media, researchers, analysts, bloggers, tweeters, et al. Like the Greeks these past 2+ years!
But there are 27 different countries in the EU, soon 28! Well it could be harder, the US has 50! The language issue? It exists and can be bypassed and after all, IME, the best kept secret is that most Germans speak English quite well. Maybe more programmes in VO on TV and cinema would help!
Can Germans expect other Europeans to learn German? Well, after English, maybe. Maybe more cultural products like music can help the average European get acquainted with the German language.
PS. As I have tweeted in the past, US and UK business school rank mostly at the world top but it is German businesses that are masters at exporting. By the way, one of the issues that I wish to research more and in detail (after all I am a geek) is that SME manufacturing exporting model. Germany does have enough interesting things that are worth the analysis of other Europeans as well as the rest of the world, including German rock!
Since the beginning of the so called Greek crisis, more than 2 years ago, economists, financial analysts, journalists of various specialisations and commentators of all kinds in Europe, the US and the rest of the world have been analysing Greece. Its economic, political, policy, social and other systemics and dynamics, some in a systemic, some in even anecdotal ways.
In addition, the economic, political, policy, social, pop cultural and other systemics and dynamics of the US, the UK and maybe a small number of other countries/economies are also a popular subject of scrutiny by economists, financial analysts, journalists of various specialisations and commentators of all kinds. France is one of them. China is another. Russia, in mostly political matters (not too much economic analysis, IME at least in the non-specialised media). Maybe the rest of the BRICS. The rest of the "PIIGS", ie Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy as well.
Of course the "lights" of publicity and the ensuing commentary focus on most countries periodically, in other words, for a day or at most a few days, depending on other news/current affairs.
So, other than Greece in the last 2+ years, the US and the UK are the perennial "champions" of world attention. Their political, economic, social, pop cultural and other dimensions are always in the news, someway, somehow. Part of the reason is that English (be it US, mostly, or UK) is the lingua franca and in spite of the rise of English speaking media in all countries around the world in recent years, plus blogging, tweeting, etc, most of the most read media in Europe and the world remain American and British at least in terms of HQs. Plus the US and English speaking ads are still dominant as markets in the world. These and many other parameters have led to a situation where the "global community" has or thinks it has a pretty good idea - knowledge of the US and the UK.
Recently, Germany has been an often mentioned word in the world media and public opinion agendas, but to a large extent the topics are IMO narrow. Too narrow and not enlightening enough for a country of 82 million, ie 16% of the EU population and 25% of the Eurozone population and about 20% of the EU's GDP (adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity).
The culture of Speaking, Thinking, Discussing, Conversing, Synthesising:
"Suddenly Europe is speaking German" argued Volker Kauder, conservative parliamentary group leader, at the CDU's annual party conference in Leipzig last November (see eg coverage by Spiegel Online). Although it seems that his comment refrreed specifically to the adoption of "budget discipline" as a policy philosophy by other member states, his statement, as can be expected with such remarks, was more widely interpreted,, as Germany wanting to have its Euro and EU partners adopt its "language" (actually thinking) in most/all matters Euro and EU!
For Germany to wish to be heard in all matters Euro and EU, that is a fully valid wish that should be the right and reality for every member state, large or medium or small!
That is though quite different than expecting Germany or any member state to have its way on all or any issue courtesy of mere "size", be it population, GDP or contribution to the EU budget (the "paymaster" rhetorical premise or the "our taxpayers one").
So I think that Germany has to up its efforts in presenting, explaining, discussing with an open mind (in human relations terms as they used to call it in team dynamics and HR) its ideas, its thoughts, its concerns. In other words, an extroverted approach to EU affairs. Capitalising on the art and science of synthesis too. There is after all decades of experience by now in the meetings of the Council of the EU (Ministers) as well as their working groups, staffed by national admin officials mostly posted at the country's Permanent Delegation to the EU, just to mention a few "forums" of discussion, synthesis, and co-decision in the EU and EZ.
But I argue, there is one more thing that needs to be done not only in reference to Germany but all the 27 of the EU. It is even more imperative in Germany's case because of its weight in population and GDP in the EU and the Eurozone or the Europlus: The rest of Europe (and the rest of the world) must start investing more time and effort in analysing - understanding Germany, economically, sociologically, politically, philosophically, etc. Language is an issue, compared to the cases of analysing the US, the UK, Ireland, Australia, Canada, New Zeeland, but not one that cannot be bypassed.
The other issue is that Germany and all Germans, much like the Greeks in that respect, must get used to the idea of being the subject of monitoring, examination, analysis by other Europeans and other humans. In the way that Britons are, to some extent, and some of the Americans. To get used to having their personal views and thoughts asked by media, researchers, analysts, bloggers, tweeters, et al. Like the Greeks these past 2+ years!
But there are 27 different countries in the EU, soon 28! Well it could be harder, the US has 50! The language issue? It exists and can be bypassed and after all, IME, the best kept secret is that most Germans speak English quite well. Maybe more programmes in VO on TV and cinema would help!
Can Germans expect other Europeans to learn German? Well, after English, maybe. Maybe more cultural products like music can help the average European get acquainted with the German language.
PS. As I have tweeted in the past, US and UK business school rank mostly at the world top but it is German businesses that are masters at exporting. By the way, one of the issues that I wish to research more and in detail (after all I am a geek) is that SME manufacturing exporting model. Germany does have enough interesting things that are worth the analysis of other Europeans as well as the rest of the world, including German rock!
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
What Greece really needed was ...
What Greece really needed was an econ "Gregory House" and his team to get the diagnosis & treatment right (instead of the Troika and the tsunami of world analysts and commentators)
Monday, October 10, 2011
The "Vikings Invasion" model for SME led exports!
1. Intro:
Who in Europe has really cared to examine "sur-le-terrain" the real problems of SMEs and micro firms in the EU's or Euroland's periphery and find real solutions to them?
2. Business as a revolution:
October 9, 2011: 44 years without Che!
Che, an Argentinian of Spanish and Irish descend, had concluded that Latin America's ingrained economic inequalities were an intrinsic result of capitalism, monopolism,neocolonialism & imperialism.
Because I ask you, what is more revolutionary and heroic than starting an exporting SME in the Euroland of 2011, especially its periphery?
Plus: Not tolerating monopolies, oligopolies, monopsonies and oligopsonies is not a Leninist monopoly! Real free market fans share this POV!
3. Scope
Who in Europe has really cared to examine "sur-le-terrain" the real problems of SMEs and micro firms in the EU's or Euroland's periphery and find real solutions to them?
Greece's rebound in growth and jobs can come from a mass/pack of new exporting micros & SMEs that will "invade" with their products and in some cases services, the Euroland, the EU Single Market and world markets as the Vikings ships invaded Europe 1000 yrs ago.
Not via large corporations or large private investors.
2. Business as a revolution:
October 9, 2011: 44 years without Che!
Che, an Argentinian of Spanish and Irish descend, had concluded that Latin America's ingrained economic inequalities were an intrinsic result of capitalism, monopolism,neocolonialism & imperialism.
Which of these variables apply in Europe today?
What would a European Che do today? IMO go to Greece or Ireland or Portugal or the Baltics, the EU's periphery, and start an exporting SME. To the Eurozone/Euroland, to the EU Single Market or even to the global one!
Because I ask you, what is more revolutionary and heroic than starting an exporting SME in the Euroland of 2011, especially its periphery?
Plus: Not tolerating monopolies, oligopolies, monopsonies and oligopsonies is not a Leninist monopoly! Real free market fans share this POV!
3. Scope
It is true that most SMEs are occupied with local and national regulatory, redtape and other issues.
That is precisely the main problem of SMEs. Their local "worldview". That is why I call the model I propose "Vikings invasion"!
The EU27 even EZ17 spaces are alas a bureaucratic swamp where mainly large companies and corporations can "work"/operate! The swamp is created mostly by local/national regulations/polynomy and resulting red tape.
The EU27 even EZ17 spaces are alas a bureaucratic swamp where mainly large companies and corporations can "work"/operate! The swamp is created mostly by local/national regulations/polynomy and resulting red tape.
Almost 18 years of BS re the EU Single Market is enough!
4. The "Vikings Invasion" model for SME led exports (and growth and jobs creation)
Look into history texts on how (method) the Vikings invaded and dominated Europe for 3 centuries! The key success factor was the independence of each vessel. Yet these vessels formed a "loose" pack that because of its non-coordinated nature it made it difficult for others to defend against! Viking "SME" vessels, due to their size, used Europe's inland waterways to reach all parts of Europe.
SMEs need a REAL Single Market now!
The Europlus Six-Pack is no solution to Europe's growth and job creation problems.
The "Vikings Invasion" SME pack-exporting model is!
4. The "Vikings Invasion" model for SME led exports (and growth and jobs creation)
Look into history texts on how (method) the Vikings invaded and dominated Europe for 3 centuries! The key success factor was the independence of each vessel. Yet these vessels formed a "loose" pack that because of its non-coordinated nature it made it difficult for others to defend against! Viking "SME" vessels, due to their size, used Europe's inland waterways to reach all parts of Europe.
This model is what Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese SMEs and their economies need today!
The "Vikings invasion" model for exporting micros & SMEs can be a solution not only for Greece and Ireland & but other EU/Eurozone economies too!
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
The real Greek tragedy of Europe
In the last few months, the word Tragedy or Greek Tragedy has been used a lot by international media.
Yet the real Ancient Greek tragedy was that Greek city-states did not unite into one federal state (back in the 5th century BC). If they had, 400 BC - 2011 AD history would have been quite different.
Europe's real modern tragedy is the same, ie the absence of political union among Europe's states.
And the Greek crisis is one of the in-your-face reminders of that.
Reminders of the absence of political union, military union (Greece No. 1 defense spender per capita in the EU, 22 in the world, 2006 (CIA World Factbook), fiscal union (federal tax and federal budget and of course federal European "IRS"), economic union, etc. No EU-wide "NHS", no EU-wide car registration/plates, no EU-wide job market, no EU-wide online systems in banks (how many banks operate throughout the EU the same way they operate throughout eg a federal country like Germany), etc.
Yet the real Ancient Greek tragedy was that Greek city-states did not unite into one federal state (back in the 5th century BC). If they had, 400 BC - 2011 AD history would have been quite different.
Europe's real modern tragedy is the same, ie the absence of political union among Europe's states.
And the Greek crisis is one of the in-your-face reminders of that.
Reminders of the absence of political union, military union (Greece No. 1 defense spender per capita in the EU, 22 in the world, 2006 (CIA World Factbook), fiscal union (federal tax and federal budget and of course federal European "IRS"), economic union, etc. No EU-wide "NHS", no EU-wide car registration/plates, no EU-wide job market, no EU-wide online systems in banks (how many banks operate throughout the EU the same way they operate throughout eg a federal country like Germany), etc.
The real Greek tragedy of Europe
In the last few months, the word Tragedy or Greek Tragedy has been used a lot by international media.
Yet the real Ancient Greek tragedy was that Greek city-states did not unite into one federal state (back in the 5th century BC). If they had, 400 BC - 2011 AD history would have been quite different.
Europe's real modern tragedy is the same, ie the absence of political union among Europe's states.
And the Greek crisis is one of the in-your-face reminders of that.
Reminders of the absence of political union, military union (Greece No. 1 defense spender per capita in the EU, 22 in the world, 2006 (CIA World Factbook), fiscal union (federal tax and federal budget and of course federal European "IRS"), economic union, etc. No EU-wide "NHS", no EU-wide car registration/plates, no EU-wide job market, no EU-wide online systems in banks (how many banks operate throughout the EU the same way they operate throughout eg a federal country like Germany), etc.
Yet the real Ancient Greek tragedy was that Greek city-states did not unite into one federal state (back in the 5th century BC). If they had, 400 BC - 2011 AD history would have been quite different.
Europe's real modern tragedy is the same, ie the absence of political union among Europe's states.
And the Greek crisis is one of the in-your-face reminders of that.
Reminders of the absence of political union, military union (Greece No. 1 defense spender per capita in the EU, 22 in the world, 2006 (CIA World Factbook), fiscal union (federal tax and federal budget and of course federal European "IRS"), economic union, etc. No EU-wide "NHS", no EU-wide car registration/plates, no EU-wide job market, no EU-wide online systems in banks (how many banks operate throughout the EU the same way they operate throughout eg a federal country like Germany), etc.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Eurozone & global systemics: Lessons from Greece's case
The following are excerpts from my 2 sets of comments/replies made to the blog post titled "Which straitjacket and life jacket for Eurozone Greece?" of May 21st in the Grahnlaw blog of my esteemed fellow EU tweeter & blogger Ralf Grahn.
I. Excerpt of my Comments to the original post in Grahnlaw:
2)Which brings me to my main point, from a Eurozone, EU and global analysis perspective:
Greece's case (*) is a very valuable lesson regarding the shortcomings and downright faults of the dominant dogmae in Finance, Economics, Policy, etc especially of the so called "West". And a rare opportunity to overhaul these dogmae in favour of ones that are closer to reality and human needs.
I could elaborate further here, but it could evolve into a proper book.
Let me mention 1 or 2 examples:
Reliance on stats: It has become an obsession in a world/universe which by its very nature is unpredictable and uncertain. Our "Western" craving for stats, technical analysis, and certainties in general has been leading Europe and North America down a dangerous path. Greece's case is a wake up call. But not many seem to have grasped that, at least yet.
Another example: Some seem to treat countries or economies as football teams or pions in a "fantasy Euro or global economic league" not only using parameters that are by their very nature at best incomplete but also faulty in philosophy. This has, inter alia, an effect on not focusing on the real economy but an economic/financial "video game" that has little to do with reality, ie what is experienced daily by real people and real companies, esp. SMEs, in Greece, Eurozone, EU, USA, the OECD etc.
Free market capitalism is failing and is highly unpopular even in the US and UK (see relevant BBC World surveys) because it is based on the faulty Economic, Financial, Policy and other dogmae I referred to above.
...
(*) All one has to do is spend even 1 hour facing the Acropolis in order to appreciate how the West's thinking in Economics, Finance, Policy, etc has swayed away from its roots into uncharted waters.
II. Excerpts from my reply to Ralf Grahn's comments on my comments to the original post in Grahnlaw:
... as an EU/European/global affairs analyst, it is not my job to analyse Greece per se. My job is to look at EU and Eurozone systemics thus my tweets and blog posts have not focused on Greece's or Portugal's or Ire;and's policy faults but rather the systemic faults at EZ & EU level, eg the effects of the uber hard Euro on most Eurozone products and services, be they Greek or even German!
What I stated in my initial comments is that "Greece's case is a very valuable lesson regarding the shortcomings and downright faults of the dominant dogmae in Finance, Economics, Policy, etc especially of the so called "West".". Elements of Greece's case are to be found IMO in the other PIIGS as well, as well as most other Eurozone & EU members. But they are compounded in Greece's case, thus being more evident. That is not a defense of Greece but rather severe criticism, from my EU/Eurozone/systemics POV re the dominant Economic, Financial and Policy dogmae in the "West". Greece's problems are merely the most severe ones. And my concern is that the EU, Eurozone and global lessons are not missed.
.......
.... It seems that the world nowadays is full of experts on what Greece should do. Thus I opt to focus on what, systemically, the Eurozone should do. 1) Adopt a more "moderate Euro" policy 2) consider the exit WTO option 3) move immediately to a political union. (1) and (3) are IMO absolute "musts".
Greece's debt is merely 4% of all Eurozone debt. Unless it learns the lessons from Greece, the EU or EZ or Europlus may "save" the Greek economy but lose the "European" one. I would think the objective should include both. But so far it seems that the lessons from Greece's problems have not be learned by the other 16. The recent report by DW "Red lights aflame as European students opt for sex work" for example shows how fragile are the systemics at the core of the core of the Eurozone, ie in Berlin!
Thus high time to rethink the Economic, Financial, Policy dogmae that the EU (and the US, ie the West) has been operating on, IMHO as an EU and global policy analyst!
I. Excerpt of my Comments to the original post in Grahnlaw:
2)Which brings me to my main point, from a Eurozone, EU and global analysis perspective:
Greece's case (*) is a very valuable lesson regarding the shortcomings and downright faults of the dominant dogmae in Finance, Economics, Policy, etc especially of the so called "West". And a rare opportunity to overhaul these dogmae in favour of ones that are closer to reality and human needs.
I could elaborate further here, but it could evolve into a proper book.
Let me mention 1 or 2 examples:
Reliance on stats: It has become an obsession in a world/universe which by its very nature is unpredictable and uncertain. Our "Western" craving for stats, technical analysis, and certainties in general has been leading Europe and North America down a dangerous path. Greece's case is a wake up call. But not many seem to have grasped that, at least yet.
Another example: Some seem to treat countries or economies as football teams or pions in a "fantasy Euro or global economic league" not only using parameters that are by their very nature at best incomplete but also faulty in philosophy. This has, inter alia, an effect on not focusing on the real economy but an economic/financial "video game" that has little to do with reality, ie what is experienced daily by real people and real companies, esp. SMEs, in Greece, Eurozone, EU, USA, the OECD etc.
Free market capitalism is failing and is highly unpopular even in the US and UK (see relevant BBC World surveys) because it is based on the faulty Economic, Financial, Policy and other dogmae I referred to above.
...
(*) All one has to do is spend even 1 hour facing the Acropolis in order to appreciate how the West's thinking in Economics, Finance, Policy, etc has swayed away from its roots into uncharted waters.
II. Excerpts from my reply to Ralf Grahn's comments on my comments to the original post in Grahnlaw:
... as an EU/European/global affairs analyst, it is not my job to analyse Greece per se. My job is to look at EU and Eurozone systemics thus my tweets and blog posts have not focused on Greece's or Portugal's or Ire;and's policy faults but rather the systemic faults at EZ & EU level, eg the effects of the uber hard Euro on most Eurozone products and services, be they Greek or even German!
What I stated in my initial comments is that "Greece's case is a very valuable lesson regarding the shortcomings and downright faults of the dominant dogmae in Finance, Economics, Policy, etc especially of the so called "West".". Elements of Greece's case are to be found IMO in the other PIIGS as well, as well as most other Eurozone & EU members. But they are compounded in Greece's case, thus being more evident. That is not a defense of Greece but rather severe criticism, from my EU/Eurozone/systemics POV re the dominant Economic, Financial and Policy dogmae in the "West". Greece's problems are merely the most severe ones. And my concern is that the EU, Eurozone and global lessons are not missed.
.......
.... It seems that the world nowadays is full of experts on what Greece should do. Thus I opt to focus on what, systemically, the Eurozone should do. 1) Adopt a more "moderate Euro" policy 2) consider the exit WTO option 3) move immediately to a political union. (1) and (3) are IMO absolute "musts".
Greece's debt is merely 4% of all Eurozone debt. Unless it learns the lessons from Greece, the EU or EZ or Europlus may "save" the Greek economy but lose the "European" one. I would think the objective should include both. But so far it seems that the lessons from Greece's problems have not be learned by the other 16. The recent report by DW "Red lights aflame as European students opt for sex work" for example shows how fragile are the systemics at the core of the core of the Eurozone, ie in Berlin!
Thus high time to rethink the Economic, Financial, Policy dogmae that the EU (and the US, ie the West) has been operating on, IMHO as an EU and global policy analyst!
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Systemics: If Greece, Portugal and Ireland formed a political union
Food for thought:
If Greece, Portugal and Ireland formed a Political Union, the resulting polity would have a combined population (1/1/2009 Eurostat data) of
26.4 million
making it the 7th largest member of the EU (see here)
the 5th in the Eurozone and the 6th in the Europlus.
Its nominal GDP (2009 World Bank data) would be 784,884 million USD ie 6.3% of Eurozone nominal GDP (2009).
Hence:
5) Spain 45.8
6) Poland 38.1
7) Romania 21.5
8) Netherlands 16.5
Would become:
5) Spain 45.8
6) Poland 38.1
7) Greece + Portugal + Ireland 26.4
8) Romania 21.5
9) Netherlands 16.5
Here is a rough comparison with the NL:
Netherlands
Pop (2009) 16.5 million
GDP (2009) 792,128 million USD
GDP per capita 48007
Greece+Portugal+Ireland
Pop (2009) 26.4 million
GDP (2009) 784,884 million USD
GDP per capita (USD, 2009) 29730
Based on the 2009 World Bank nominal GDP data the G+P+I would have the 6th highest GDP (size of economy) in the Eurozone (after Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands).
Onviously, a theoretically "exercise", but IMO "systemically" insightful.
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