The morning after April 22: EU27 politics: If, then, else!

Monday morning, after the first round of the French Presidential elections.

Does Le Pen showing decrease the probability of Hollande success in Round 2, on May 6? The polls I have read seem to suggest yes, but only by a little. But let's try an if, then, else exercise.

If Hollande wins the Presidency, then he will dispute the Fiscal Compact and the German social democrats (SPD), will have political impetus to decide whether to defeat the ratification of the Fiscal Compact by Germany (since 2/3rds are needed in both houses of the German federal parliament).

If Hollande loses on May 6, Sarkozy is re-elected, then the Merkozy pair remains (almost, see eg Sarkozy's pre-election views on immigration as opposed to the German - Merkel's stance on the subject) and it is strictly up to the SPD, still trailing the CDU/CSU in the polls, to decide whether to bring down the Fiscal Compact and face the positive and negative effects of such decision in the German political arena and public opinion, else negotiate some growth spending in return for voting for the Fiscal Compact.

Is the Dutch situation, the inability of austerity and Fiscal Compact most "hardcore" supporter next to Merkozy, the current Dutch government, to meet fiscal objectives this year and next, an ace in the hands of the German SPD or the socio-political forces in the EU that are against the super austerity of the Fiscal Compact? Could be, especially if there is a new election that yields a new government that includes the Dutch Labour party (and D66).

EU27 politics are complicated, huh? Imagine if the EU had 50 states as the US does. But the US has political union, the EU?

Good houskeeping, the European social democratic way

Good "housekeeping" in the EU member states is always a must but Sarkozy, the current Dutch government, Merkel and others must be sacked for obsessing about it!

For setting targets that are too unrealistic, in terms of the actual numbers as well as the whole philosophy of setting strict targets and obsessing about reaching them. That is also a problem with inflation (the 2% "magic" target), even the targets of the Europe 2020 "growth Strategy". Economics, including fiscal and budgetary ones, are not like Physics or Chemistry, they are part of social sciences and as such they must be treated with a grain of salt. People are not robots, neither are their economic, social, political and policy  actions.

Some politicians are willing to bend to the demands of financial markets.

Since many years ago I have written about the demands placed on listed companies by the financial market. The pressure to meet specific targets on a quarterly basis. And the negative impact that this has on the medium term performance of the corporation.

In recent years, the same pressure is being put on countries, their economies.

Time for that to stop! That should be one of the philosophies of the social democrats in the EU27.

Of course states, as companies do, need to improve their accounting procedures, know what they are spending and why (the why part is management accounting as opposed to financial accounting). To keep their finances solid but without "human sacrifices" of the obsession austerity kind. The preservation of the European Social Model and the need for the recognition of the positive role economic immigrants can play in the funding of the social model of an ageing EU27 (instead of scapegoating them).

To make a humanist EU the beacon for others in the world, since the American beacon has been dying out in recent decades (see also the resistance to not only HillaryCare of the Bill Clinton 1st term but also of Obamacare, especially the public option).

In a secular Europe, economic religions such as growth via austerity, classic, neo ir ordo liberalism and of course neo-Marxism have no place! Policy must provide solutions for real problems of real people.

Whatever happens on May 6, they will always have Greece

According to Wikipedia, a "work spouse" is a co-worker, usually of the opposite sex,[1] with whom one shares a special relationship, having bonds similar to those of a marriage (but platonic).

By analogy, the relationship between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy could be called "political spouses" or "Euro-spouses".

And if Sarkozy emerges non-victorious on May 6 at the sec9nd round of the French Presidency elections, the two will always have Greece (not sure what Greece thinks of that though).

Yet for those who monitor European, EU and world affairs (what a choice of terminology!!) this Euro  political love affair and "marriage" seemed as plausible as Greek growing by 20% next year, only a few years ago. I can still recall the press reports on how Angela Merkel, always wanted to be prepared at meetings etc, could not tolerate Nicolas' brainstorming style, and neither did her "court".

So many press reports on how much they could not stand each other. And then, political Eros (aka Cupid) striked! Maybe it was Greece that brought them together. Frankly, I cannot recall when the thin line into love was crossed.

They do not call it EU Affairs for nothing. But one of the morals of the story, IMO, is that EU affairs, like romantic affairs, can be unstable.

Nick and Angie will always have Greece. Hope that Greece will not always have austerity though.