NP Live Blog - November 6: Omabaland

To follow the flow, start from the bottom and read up:

Afternoon:

Obama-Romney:
What happens if there is a tie? Extra time or penalties?
Nothing to fear but Romney being President.
America will come "roaring back"? With a Chinese engine?


Morning: EU: The euro's credibility was built on an in-credible inflation minimization dogma that pushed the euro skyhigh. Hence the resulting vertigo.

Governing Dynamics: Capital is vagabond and homeless, so are companies, services and products. Can humans do it, though?

Governing Dynamics - Competitiveness: Only the homeless will survive?

Systemics and Dynamics Live NP Blog, October 29, 2012

Please read from the bottom up to follow the flow:

Schauble says EU needs the UK at Oxford:
Or Schauble simply playing "good cop" on the UK to Merkel's "bad cop" on the UK? The reverse roles compared to Greece, that is! lol
Maybe Schauble's call on the UK to stay in EU = sign EU getting unstuck between German exceptionalism and UK Euroscepticism?
So Schauble is playing "bad cop" on Greece and "good cop" on the UK? lol Oct 29, 2012
In reference to Schauble's EU call to the UK today, read my 2005 analysis: Britain and the heart of Europe http://t.co/P4jge3ty
Re UK in Eu read "The EU and the UK in a prisoner's dilemma!" in my: How many countries committed "economic suicide" http://t.co/5ycd7VxB
Or a desperate call for help on how to deal with a feasibly emerging ESP+ITA plus FRA (?) "alliance" in EU/Euro matters? #SchaubleNeedsUK
An admission EU doesnt speak Cauder's German? RT @ReutersWorld Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq
Seems to me GER needs UK to debate FRA ideas RT @ReutersWorld: Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq

Italy and EU:
When Italy became a country in the 1870s, the North imposed its laws + policies on the South. The effects linger. Lessons for EU - Eurozone?

Capitalism:
Matthew 19:24 and related passages directly contradict Calvinist predeternination. Imho.

On direct vs rep democracy:
So you think the concept of elected reps of the ppl and civil soc orgs with time and staff to KNOW the draft laws can be replaced? By what?
U think direct democracy, IRL or on the Net, is easy? Was it not for slaves work, u think Ancient Athenians wld have enuff time 4 politics?

Greece:
My main "take" on Greece is that no one's take, including mine, is accurate. That's Greece. Un-takeable. That's my main take on Greece.

Centrism:
When will the main parties in the US, UK, etc converge to the center in ideas + policies and compete in their ability to implement them?

On humanity in 2012:
The main disease that is turning so many of us into real zombies is greed. Oct 29, 2012
Does it take Natural disasters or will it take a comet from outer space threat for ppl to realise we all humans and shld stick together?

Why so difficult?
Why is it so difficult for so many to realise the difference between speculative and entrepreneurial risk? Even Sarkozy did!
People in at least The West know the ratrace is ravaging them. Instead of calling it off they want everyone in to suffer like they do? Why
Why is it so difficult for so many Europeans to realise that austerity and crash of GDP does not foster growth?
Why is it so difficult for so many American voters to realise the need for a public option in health insurance?
Why so difficult for many to realise a balance of individualism + collectivism, instead of 1 of the 2, is best? Not simplistic enuff 4 them?
It's ideologies tht focus on the individual or collective instead of balance of the 2 that unbalance the world
I guess Nature is reminding American voters who's the real boss and why allegiance between humans a good thing! Will they get the msg? And vote for the Dems?

Greece:
What is the worse that can happen Nov 16?

Mantra:
Rationalize, Simplify, Economize. A good mantra for 2012?

Sandy:
Who names storms and hurricanes? After ex-GFs? For revenge?

Merkel:
Merkel has been conducting Ein Experiment on 330 million. She leads the way. But remember Das Experiment movie? Did she ever watch it? Oct 29, 2012

Pop Cult:
Walking Nationless: A new TV series coming soon to a European TV station near you! 500,000,000 wandering aimlessly.
Walking Jobless. A horror drama series coming soon! Oh my, the jobless disease that taken over their minds! #media

Centrism:
I am a geek and my audience is people and decision makers (biz, pol) of moderate but progressive/innovative mentality in Europe. US, world.

Libertarianism:
Other than than, no one really bothers me, even libertarians or nationalist or anti-EUers. as long as they are not in my T/L.
Libertarianism is as unrealistic as communism. Only works when one alone on an island. Liberal Democrat: is another thing.
In short: Rand is as irrelevant as Marx. Had enough of libertarians when I ran with a libdem (I thought) party in Euro-1999.

US of E:
My support for a US of Europe is not ideological, it is practical (and constructively critical). Why? I lived in a US (of A) for 5.5 yrs! Oct 29, 2012

EU and the SMEs:
A real EU single market would have led to pan-EU niche markets for SMEs. But not a real single mkt yet, is it? #Marketing

PIGS and EU Animal Farm:
Are we on the verge of experiencing a rise of the PIGS (+FRA) in EU/Euro politics/decision making? Just askin. Reading signs?

Mark his words or not?
Rajoy: Spain, Italy Back Greece Remaining In Euro "one down will be all down.

Systemics:
The biggest "fights" people have are not with other ppl but group-think as well as systemics and dynamics. Much harder than person-on-person. And karate won't do.

From USSR to the EU to ....:
From good bye Lenin to good bye Merkel?

EU:
Athens in the Delos Allaince, Germany in the Eurozone or EU. Compare and contrast!

Memories:
Memories were meant to fade for a reason (from one of my poems)

If the world wants to maintain freedoms in trade and capital

Systemically speaking, if the world wants to maintain freedoms in the trade of goods  and the movement of capital, it must liberate movement of labour & services too.

Otherwise, look at the global, EU, EZ other systemic crises driven by uneven freedoms and the systemic instability they cause. 

Eg see what Achilles Heel for the EU Single Market and Single Currency low intra-EU labour mobility is.

The value of primary education in life and career

Newsweek recently had 2 very interesting articles on (the US) higher education.

1) "How the Economy is Killing the Liberal Arts"
2) College: Making The Case For Useless Degrees


IMO, when one analyses the value or usefulness of a college degree and a college" major"/content, one has to factor in the very high cost of 4 yrs college.

In addition, it is primary rather than higher education that makes the difference in career and life. IMO everyone needs quantitative & qualitative analysis tools and IME/IMO these tools are best taught at the primary education level.

On economic and political governance

Re all the economic governance "fashion" of recent months and weeks:

All policy issues have an economic dimension but no policy even econ has only an econ dimension 25 minutes ago via we

IMO economic policy decisions cannot be left to the "market" or supply and demand, they should not replace elected political governance.

For a market to be truly free it must also be "democratic" and rule of law does not mean rule of market rules or #economic theories.

Even common markets and free trade areas need political governance, IMO. Hence EEC Common Market naturally led towards EU Political Union.

IMO, we see the same thing happening with world free trade, ie for political governance to balance multilateral economic activity.

IMO all policy decisions must be approved by the people or their elected reps and economic, monetary and fiscal policies are no exception.

NPWorldview, March 10-16, 2010

The US Commerce Department announced (March 11) that the US trade deficit fell (unexpectedly) to a seasonally adjusted $37.3bn, in January 2010 due to lower imports as well as exports. Thus it was 6.6% below the revised December deficit figure of $39.9bn. It had increased by nearly 10% between November and December 2009. Imports dropped 1.7%, driven by a big fall in imports of oil and foreign cars. Imports of crude oil imports were at the lowest level in almost 11 years!

The US dollar fell against both the yen and the euro after the news were announced, thus helping US exports and making imports more expensive.

On the next day, March 12, the US Commerce Department also announced that in the next month, February, US retail sales showed a surprise rise (in spite of the bad weather)! Retail sales rose 0.3%, the biggest rise since November (December had proved disappointing for retail sales), thus pumping up hopes that economic recovery is gaining momentum and helped to boost Wall Street! Down and up, like a yoyo, economics these days require a strong stomach to deter “sea sickness”!

What made the February US retail sales stats even more impressive was that when one excludes a 2% fall in car sales that reflect, in part, it seems, the recall problems of a certain company,

US retail sales rose 0.8% (on the other hand, in the UK, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, car sales in February were up by 26.4% compared with February 2009).

Now let's back up one day, to March 11, when it was announced that a rise in imports reduced China's trade surplus to a one-year low of $7.6bn for February. China's exports jumped by 46% in February 2010 compared with February 2009, thus raising hopes of a strong recovery in world trade. China's imports also rose strongly, increasing by 44.7%.

The news that the US' trade deficit with China widened to $18.3bn in January, from $18.1bn in December prompted, on March 11 (ie the same day) the US President Barack Obama to urge China to move to a "more market-based exchange rate" so that US exporters are not disadvantaged and to help re-balance the global economy.

Can the WTO do something about that? No, because whereas the TO rules do not permit “dumping” of products in world markets (at prices lower than costs), they do not include exchange rate policies. An argument for more world economic governance (or at least among WTO members)? It seems that intellectual property is another areas that the WTO has difficulty in incorporating into its rules (one of the so called “Singapore” issues in WTO-speak if memory serves me right) thus leading to a group of countries trying to reach their own agreement outside the WTO (ACTA). Plus a great number of bilateral and regional trade agreements that have sprung in recent years, especially since the failed WTO Ministerial meeting in Cancun. Mexico, in September 2003. And a potential new generation of regional agreements that go beyond trade issues (see the Trans Pacific Partnership below).

Whereas China did surpass Germany in 2009 to become the world No. 1 exporter, a day earlier (March 10) the German Federal Statistics Office had announced that in January 2010 German exports fell (against market expectations) 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with December 2009. Imports increased by 6%. As a result, the German trade surplus went down to 8.7bn euros.

It is worth mentioning that reports and analyses this week noted the adverse effect of bad weather (potential but not realised in the US retail sales case in February) on economic growth in the US, Germany and elsewhere. Philosophically speaking, there are two types of “climate” that affect the economy, the “climate” that results from social, political and other human powered factors and the actual climate (which, according to many scientists, is affected by human actions too, see “global warming” etc)!

Less than 3 days after Barack Obama's criticism of China's exchange rate policy, on March 14 the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rejected criticism that China is keeping its currency undervalued in order to boost exports arguing that keeping the yuan stable was an important contribution to global recovery (Note: On March 12 the International Energy Agency said that oil demand in China had risen by a whopping 28% in January 2010 compared to January 2009).

He went on to claim that that recent strains in ties with the US were Washington's fault, citing arms sales to Taiwan and a White House visit by the Dalai Lama as “violating” his country's sovereignty!

In the meantime, on March 12, India and Russia signed a series of agreements on nuclear, space and military issues after a visit to India by Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Russia is to build 12 nuclear reactors in India. Which pop the question whether nuclear is a wise alternative to CO2 and whether solar and wind and other alternative sources can suffice to create a world free of global warming and with minimum nuclear “concerns”.

The talks re the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is potentially the biggest world trade systemics development since the entry into force of the China RTA with many of the ASEAN member countries on January 1 this year. Even more so, because it may wind up going well beyond a mere regional free trade agreement into (even some basic) economic "governance" territory. President Obama was not enthusiastic about the US joining in this partnership but has changed his mind of late. It is not clear to me whether US participation in the formulation of this partnership will help or hurt it, given the mixed feelings (and views and philosophies) in the US at the moment in terms of trade as well as complications in the balance of political power and the melting pot of policies at stake in the US and the stances of many of the sides (GOP, trade unions, GOP in the Senate, etc etc etc).

An example of the current US “policy melting pot”: A new bill (aka draft legislation) to tighten regulation of US banks was unveiled on Monday by Senator Christopher Dodd (Democrat), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee., but it is unclear whether it will succeed in gaining support in (you guessed it) the Senate! More on the details of the bill next or in coming weeks.

Last (but not least among the US, China, India, Russia, etc?), the European Union (and its much disscussed and debated, recently, in Europe, the US, etc, Eurozone). On March 15 the Eurostat announced that the number of persons at work in the Eurozone declined 2.7 million in 2009 compared with 2008 (thus over-compensating (negatively) for the +1.7 million in 2008 compared with 2007). The EU as a whole, the decline in 2009 over 2008 was 4 million (thus wiping out the 2.6 million gain in 2008 over 2007).

Three days earlier, Eurostat had announced that industrial production in the Eurozone in January increased much more than expected, 1.7%, the largest monthly jump since Eurostat started producing these stats in 1990! The January 2010 figure, when compared with January 2009 was 1.4% higher, which is the first gain since April 2008 (compared with April 2007). Also, December's industrial production was revised, upwards, substantially, now showing a gain of 0.6% over November instead of a drop of 1.7%.

By the way, the European Commission's latest forecast is for the Eurozone economy to expand by 0.7% during 2010 after contracting by 4% in 2009. The Eurozone economy grew by a mere 0.1% in the last three months of 2010 (Q4), it may be revised up in later releases of stats.

Bordeaux, China: Finally, this news from France is indicative of the complexities in trying to use simple model or analysis in today's dynamics and systemics: According to Alain Vironneau, president of Bordeaux's wine trade body (CIVB), March 12, China has become Bordeaux wines' best client (in terms of volume of exports) excluding the European Union (note: yet the US remains No.1 non-EU client in value of exports).