Applying logic consistently can lead to some very hardcore argumentation in European Affairs. Especially when coupled with humanism.
Here we go (based on thoughts originally posted via my Twitter account, today):
Xenophobia and "paymasterism" are evidence of insecurity due to policy failures by mostly national policy-makers.
E.g. Angela Merkel and Co. blamed Greeks and other South Europeans to cover up for her own policy failures in 2005-2012. Except for very recently.
Plus, the EU has always been used by national politicians as a scapegoat for their failures but not their successes.
So who should be in more fear of losing their jobs and who should lose them? People or policy makers. Desperate policy makers produce even more desperate policies. Not to mention desperate (for ratings hence ad revenue) media.
So, for voters, focusing at national and local level is in a way a natural reaction, whereas the wise reaction is to focus at Euro, EU level and beyond.
Instead of helping the man/woman in streets feel a tad of stability via their policies, policy makers have been doing the opposite.
Note also that 2 months of somewhat positive propaganda by Merkel and friends re Greece seems (see polls in Germany) to have managed to partly counter 2+ years of negative propaganda. Is that scary or good? Or both?
That is the real state of the EU in 2012. It is time we start discussing those things, not only the agenda the mainstream traditional media and social media set.
Example:
People in NW and North Europe are panicking and blaming foreigners because, imho, they know their national exceptionalisms are a hot air result of propaganda - narratives. They are in real fear. Because they feel/know that their economies are way more un-competitive and cruel than anyone would admit. They are scared of losing their accumulated privileges and fear more than South Europeans, because they know their societies are more cruel than in South Europe.
Yes what I am proposing, after roaming around the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands (NL) in the past 5 weeks and lots of talking with people from all walks of life, observing systemics and dynamics and lots of thinking, is that the real reason Dutch, Finns, Germans, Belgians, Brits are reacting the way they are is: they are scared. Even more scared than South Europeans.
Take a good look for example at the "streets" of any UK, NL or Belgian city. People are "bowling alone" (much more than Greeks or Spaniard are "bowling alone") and they know it.
That is I propose the main way to interpret eg the local results in Antwerp.
So whereas Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy need real policies badly, the NL, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Finland need real policies even more badly. And more humanism (and that is a matter/task for society and thought/opinion leaders, not policy makers per se).
On the other hand, imo what Greeks and Spaniards should really worry about is not labour market reforms but of having lost part of their traditional humanism. Because once that is lost, no laws or rules can after all restore that. And liberalism needs humanism in order to work. Every system does, but liberalism (in the European not US sense of the term) does even more (that is of course why Romney and Ryan should not win the elections in the US, the country where the term "bowling alone" was invented).
The Greek and Spanish labour markets are already a "Kaiadas" (see Ancient Sparta) even without labour market reforms, so what worse can reforms do than admit that reality?
Plus Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese, Italians should look at their national and local "champions" and elites and ask them: What have you done for me lately? In a way they are. In a way.
Being pro-EU doesn't mean being pro European Commission, pro EU Council, etc. It means being pro the common interests of 500,000,000. Because in the world systemics and dynamics of the epoch, mainly at continental and world level can effective solutions be formulated and implemented. But with a systems analysis approach that looks at the forest and at the trees at the same time. These are indeed testing times for policy makers.
The European media and social media should not focus on the symptoms (they do make for good copy, true) but at the diseases. I know it's hard.
Even more analysis on this complex topic and implications for policy makers, the civil society and economic operators at EU, Euro, national and local levels, is available upon request.
Showing posts with label Belgium. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Belgium. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
More on separatist dynamics in Europe - a case inside Barcelona!
To some extent it's natural that paymasters at national (eg Flanders in Belgium) and local (eg Sarrià, part of Barcelona) level are sort of echoing the EU/Euro rationales of GER, NL and FIN. The EU's and Eurozone's bailouts' "paymasters" have opened Pandora's Box!
Example: Read from 20minutos.es the news story 'Sarrià is not Barcelona': la misiva de vecinos del barrio rico de la Ciudad Condal. By analogy, in this case, Barcelona is rhe EU/Eurozone and Sarrià, part of Barcelona, is Germany or maybe NL or Finland!
This post is a follow-up to my post Is more Europe the answer to separatist dynamics in Flanders, Catalonia, Scotland?
More analysis of this topic is available to clients and close friends.
Example: Read from 20minutos.es the news story 'Sarrià is not Barcelona': la misiva de vecinos del barrio rico de la Ciudad Condal. By analogy, in this case, Barcelona is rhe EU/Eurozone and Sarrià, part of Barcelona, is Germany or maybe NL or Finland!
This post is a follow-up to my post Is more Europe the answer to separatist dynamics in Flanders, Catalonia, Scotland?
More analysis of this topic is available to clients and close friends.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
What are the high Industrial Producer Prices in April (EU, Eurozone) a sign of?
This is a follow up to my post of May 4: "Updated! Industrial Producer prices hikes among Eurozone members: Cause for concerns"
According to Eurostat (June 6)
April 2011 Industrial producer prices when compared with March 2011 are up by 0.9% in Eurozone and up by 1.0% in EU27.
But the worrying picture becomes more clear when one looks at the April 2011 figures compared with 1 year ago, ie April 2010:
In April 2011 compared with April 2010, industrial producer prices gained 6.7% in Eurozone and 7.8% in the EU!
Eurozone (April 2011 compared with April 2010):
Total industry excluding construction +6.7%
Total industry excluding construction and energy +4.4%
Intermediate goods +7.3%
Energy +13.3% (yes 13.3%!!!!)
Capital goods +1.3%
Durable consumer goods +2.0%
Non-durable consumer goods +3.4%
Industrial producer (or wholesale) prices are a sign of upcoming inflation (consume price index) trends (a few months later).
Let's look at the figures for some EU member states (April 2011 compared with April 2010):
No 1 (highest in the EU): UK +13.1% in April, vs +8.1% in December 2010 (compared with Dec 2009) and only +5.1% in November 2010 (compared with November 2009).
No 2 (and No 1 in the Eurozone): NL +11.7
No 3: Bulgaria +10.7%
No 4 (and No 2 in the Eurozone): Belgium +10.6%
No 5: Lithuania +10.5%
No 6: Denmark +9.9%
No 7: Poland and Latvia with 9.4%
No 9: Romania +8.8%
No 10 (and No 3 in the Eurozone): Finland +8.5%
Germany's and France's are both +6.4%! How about that!
See full Eurostat figures by country
Note that the Eurozone17 average in 110 basis points below the EU27 average!
Whereas international energy (oil) prices and the prices of some staple foods are said to be pushning industrial production costs up (and thus leading to higher wholesale prices) these high numbers seem to indicate that industries in the EU and the Eurozone seem to think that they can afford to pass these prices on down to the intermediaries and the final consumer (whether consumers (b2c) or other companies (b2b). Of course, some of the sales will be made inside the EU some outside.
But with the Euro being at a relatively high price vis-avis the USD, the Yuan etc, one wonders what makes those industries think they can afford not to absorb more of the extra costs of the ebergy and other inputs.
a) Are their products that unique, in the EU, EUrozone and global markets?
b) Is competition not working well in certain sectors and/or member states or the EU Single Market?
or
c) Are they merely desperate (cannot internalise more of the extra input costs, pass them on and prey)?
I have no clue as to whether it is one of the above or something else. But I am wondering.
But I cannot help wonder, more generally, whether the way to best curb inflation in the Eurozone that the ECB is gung-ho for (2% target) is via "tightening" (ie raising interest rates) or by removing barriers to more competition intra-EZ or intra-EU or both! Any views?
According to Eurostat (June 6)
April 2011 Industrial producer prices when compared with March 2011 are up by 0.9% in Eurozone and up by 1.0% in EU27.
But the worrying picture becomes more clear when one looks at the April 2011 figures compared with 1 year ago, ie April 2010:
In April 2011 compared with April 2010, industrial producer prices gained 6.7% in Eurozone and 7.8% in the EU!
Eurozone (April 2011 compared with April 2010):
Total industry excluding construction +6.7%
Total industry excluding construction and energy +4.4%
Intermediate goods +7.3%
Energy +13.3% (yes 13.3%!!!!)
Capital goods +1.3%
Durable consumer goods +2.0%
Non-durable consumer goods +3.4%
Industrial producer (or wholesale) prices are a sign of upcoming inflation (consume price index) trends (a few months later).
Let's look at the figures for some EU member states (April 2011 compared with April 2010):
No 1 (highest in the EU): UK +13.1% in April, vs +8.1% in December 2010 (compared with Dec 2009) and only +5.1% in November 2010 (compared with November 2009).
No 2 (and No 1 in the Eurozone): NL +11.7
No 3: Bulgaria +10.7%
No 4 (and No 2 in the Eurozone): Belgium +10.6%
No 5: Lithuania +10.5%
No 6: Denmark +9.9%
No 7: Poland and Latvia with 9.4%
No 9: Romania +8.8%
No 10 (and No 3 in the Eurozone): Finland +8.5%
Germany's and France's are both +6.4%! How about that!
See full Eurostat figures by country
Note that the Eurozone17 average in 110 basis points below the EU27 average!
Whereas international energy (oil) prices and the prices of some staple foods are said to be pushning industrial production costs up (and thus leading to higher wholesale prices) these high numbers seem to indicate that industries in the EU and the Eurozone seem to think that they can afford to pass these prices on down to the intermediaries and the final consumer (whether consumers (b2c) or other companies (b2b). Of course, some of the sales will be made inside the EU some outside.
But with the Euro being at a relatively high price vis-avis the USD, the Yuan etc, one wonders what makes those industries think they can afford not to absorb more of the extra costs of the ebergy and other inputs.
a) Are their products that unique, in the EU, EUrozone and global markets?
b) Is competition not working well in certain sectors and/or member states or the EU Single Market?
or
c) Are they merely desperate (cannot internalise more of the extra input costs, pass them on and prey)?
I have no clue as to whether it is one of the above or something else. But I am wondering.
But I cannot help wonder, more generally, whether the way to best curb inflation in the Eurozone that the ECB is gung-ho for (2% target) is via "tightening" (ie raising interest rates) or by removing barriers to more competition intra-EZ or intra-EU or both! Any views?
Monday, March 7, 2011
Eurozone systemics: GIIPSB 44% of pop 39% of GDP!
Recent ECB Pres & some BoD members' comments re rate hike potential raise IMO the issue of what kind of economic governance the EA17 need & by whom!
Country ... % pop .... % GDP (1) ...... Q4 growth (2) .. Inflation (3)
Eg. see "ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo: April rate hike possible" and note the argumentation:
"... Asked about the impact of a rate hike for Spain, whose economy is recovering at a slower pace than others in the euro zone, Gonzalez-Paramo said the ECB must think about the euro zone as a whole rather than individual countries. ..."
The Eurozone as a whole? This prompted me to table some insightful Eurozone statistics & systemics.
Today, I present the first part, that covers Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal as well as Belgium:
Country ... % pop .... % GDP (1) ...... Q4 growth (2) .. Inflation (3)
Italy ......... 18.21% .... 16.94% .......... +1.3% ............... 1.9%
Spain ...... 14.25% ..... 11.71% ......... +0.6% ............. 3.0%
Spain ...... 14.25% ..... 11.71% ......... +0.6% ............. 3.0%
Greece .... 3.41% ........ 2.64% ......... -6.6% ............... 4.9%
Portugal ..3.22% ....... 1.83% .......... +1.2% ............... 3.6%Ireland .... 1.37% ........ 1.82% ........... N/A ................. 0.2%
Sum
% of Eurozone population: 40.46%
% of Eurozone GDP: 34.84%
plus:
Belgium .... 3.25% .......... 3,76% ................. +1.8% ............... 3.7%
So BPIIGS
% of Eurozone population: 43.71%
% of Eurozone GDP: 38.60%
So PIIGS + BEL: 43.71% of the Eurozone population, 38.6% of nominal 2009 GDP! Quite larger than most would expect or think off hand!
Thus the strategic policy question: Do economic conditions in Spain + Portugal + Italy + Greece + Ireland + Belgium (6 Euro members, 43.71% of the Eurozone population and 38.6% of Eurozone's nominal 2009 GDP) justify Euro rate hike "thoughts" recently expressed by some central bankers in the EZ?
3 of the PIIGS plus Belgium have a January inflation rate above the 2% ECB target: Greece 4.9%, Belgium 3.7%, Portugal 3.6% and Spain 3%. The Greek rate that comes in spite a 6.6% reduction in nominal GDP in Q4 of 2010, is probably driven by new taxes (raises in VAT, etc) part of its budget consolidation effort.
Tomorrow: The full picture of the Eurozone 17 and more insightful data and syllogisms!
Footnotes
(1) Nominal GDP (2009), Source World Bank
(2) Q4 2010 GDP compared to Q4 GDP 2009. Source: Eurostat. Estonia and NL based on not seasonally adjusted data
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