Showing posts with label South Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Europe. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Is Germany a bull in the Eurozone's China Store?
Some thoughts of mine on PressEurop's very interesting report: Berlin still selling too much (14/8/2012)
1) The FAZ comments IMO, at best, show (let's call it) "non-systemic thinking".
2) Is Germany exporting too much or importing and in general consuming too little? Too little from the Eurozone?
3) In terms of trade surplus, Germany is a bull in a China Store. Funny thing is, Germany's inflation phobia makes China another bull in the Eurozone and EU's "stores"/mkts for goods.
4) Germany saves "a lot" which means it has to find outlets for its investments. No wonder Germany had invested "a lot" in the PIIGS (while selling "a lot" to them too). The rest is not "rocket science"!
5) But the strategic/systemic question is: Is Germany too big to be part of the EU/EZ but too small to be a power on its own? And if Germany is too small to be a world power on its own, what do that say for eg UK's ambitions? France, sometimes arrogant, nevertheless knows it needs "Europe". UK and Germany (and others) act as if they do not.
6) Marketing: What exactly is Germany exporting that the Eurozone (40%), EU (60%), the world, a) cannot substitute or b) always need/want?
7) So with Germany having cornered the high quality market, China the low price one & US the new tech one, what's left for (most of) the rest?
8) Problem not only that Berlin still selling too much but its policy/philosophy not selling (in many parts of Europe/EU/Eurozone)
Saturday, August 11, 2012
The number one impairment towards competitiveness for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece is
Neither Austerity not Keynes is what South Europe needs the most, It's radical curbing of "polynomia" (over-legislation).
To put it differently, the number one impairment towards competitiveness for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece (and others) is a culture of over-legislation that suffocates people and small and medium size business.
Living in most societies today is like living in a condo with 100000 pages worth of rules or using a TV with a 100000 pages manual.
I am not sure whether it's bureaucracy that creates over-legislation or vice-versa, but the solution starts with curbing the latter first.
Products are tested for side-effects etc before they are released. But legislation is not.
Of course over-legislation is a global problem (even in the UK) but it suffocates Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece the most.
The raison d'etre of politics is to produce public policy, not public relations. Political parties need to become policy making "factories"
But it should be noted that a fewer and better laws philosophy does not mean no laws, ie it's not a libertarian's wet dream.
To put it differently, the number one impairment towards competitiveness for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece (and others) is a culture of over-legislation that suffocates people and small and medium size business.
Living in most societies today is like living in a condo with 100000 pages worth of rules or using a TV with a 100000 pages manual.
I am not sure whether it's bureaucracy that creates over-legislation or vice-versa, but the solution starts with curbing the latter first.
Products are tested for side-effects etc before they are released. But legislation is not.
The raison d'etre of politics is to produce public policy, not public relations. Political parties need to become policy making "factories"
But it should be noted that a fewer and better laws philosophy does not mean no laws, ie it's not a libertarian's wet dream.
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