And the winner of last week's EUCO is ....

I have been silent (in terms of blog posts, not in terms of tweets) for the last 2+ weeks, watching developments in the EU and the Eurozone, observing, thinking, pondering, on the road to last Thursday's and Friday's session of the European Council (EUCO).

Those included ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings, comments from many of the capitals of the member states of the EU and the Eurozone (btw CDU MPs do need to learn how to make much more proper comments re other member states etc), the Rome meeting of Merkel, Rajoy, Hollande and Monti, the football externalities of EU and Eurozone affairs etc.

Some claim Europe won, because Merkel bowed (they think) to pressure from Italy and Spain (Hollande adopted a middle ground approach for which I hear that he was criticised at home (France, see also the drop in his approval ratings). She is said to have been criticised at home for giving up too much at the EUCO. She passed the Fiscal Compact in the first vote but CDU and FDP MPs broke ranks. And the ESM vote.

Some even claim that she "won" at the EUCO.

Some claim that "Europe" won, because Merkel bowed to other leaders' views "for once", and the decisions are a step forward for Europe.

In my opinion, Spain and Italy may have won, but maybe not as convincingly as it appears. Merkel did back a bit, but that is compared to her initial negotiating stance.


So, I insist. The last EUCO may have been a victory for Spain+Italy but not for the whole EU or the anti-Merkel/anti-austerity camp as a whole.

For Europe (EU), the gain was better than nothing but maybe too little compared to the task, late if not too late. A leap forward or sideways maybe be necessary soon. How soon? In EU years, not soon enough.

Spot the faults in the Merkelian logic

According to BBC News, after the results of the elections in France and Greece on May 6, Angela Merkel argumented as follows:


""It is a matter of principle in Europe that following elections, be they in small or large countries, we do not renegotiate what's already been agreed," she said. "Otherwise we could not work together in Europe."


Spot the faults in the above logic-argumentation.

Which is more important for Europe's anti-austerity dynamics?

Both are important factors, but which is more important for Europe's anti-austerity dynamcs?

a) Hoillande win on May 6
or
b) Obama re-election?

The morning after April 22: EU27 politics: If, then, else!

Monday morning, after the first round of the French Presidential elections.

Does Le Pen showing decrease the probability of Hollande success in Round 2, on May 6? The polls I have read seem to suggest yes, but only by a little. But let's try an if, then, else exercise.

If Hollande wins the Presidency, then he will dispute the Fiscal Compact and the German social democrats (SPD), will have political impetus to decide whether to defeat the ratification of the Fiscal Compact by Germany (since 2/3rds are needed in both houses of the German federal parliament).

If Hollande loses on May 6, Sarkozy is re-elected, then the Merkozy pair remains (almost, see eg Sarkozy's pre-election views on immigration as opposed to the German - Merkel's stance on the subject) and it is strictly up to the SPD, still trailing the CDU/CSU in the polls, to decide whether to bring down the Fiscal Compact and face the positive and negative effects of such decision in the German political arena and public opinion, else negotiate some growth spending in return for voting for the Fiscal Compact.

Is the Dutch situation, the inability of austerity and Fiscal Compact most "hardcore" supporter next to Merkozy, the current Dutch government, to meet fiscal objectives this year and next, an ace in the hands of the German SPD or the socio-political forces in the EU that are against the super austerity of the Fiscal Compact? Could be, especially if there is a new election that yields a new government that includes the Dutch Labour party (and D66).

EU27 politics are complicated, huh? Imagine if the EU had 50 states as the US does. But the US has political union, the EU?