It is now some time since the hawks beat Obamacare in the US and then launched a full throttle attack on Europe's social model(s). And society has started its comeback, mostly in Europe and somewhat in the US. The growth of hawkish parties in Germany, the NL and elsewhere has been causing a variety of side effects such as Greece's golden dawn party. Some are in the progressive direction (PODEMOS, SYRIZA, etc).
What will come out of 2015's other elections in the UK, Spain, etc? The upcoming US elections? In any case, fasten your seat belts and hold your passports tight in your hands.
Showing posts with label usa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label usa. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Friday, December 21, 2012
2012 Review: US vs EU models (dreams vs quality of life)
Even in 2012, US and EU systemics point to:
US best to pursue your dreams, EU best for quality of life.
In 2012, quality of life in the EU27 took a further beating and the European Social Model (with its variations) is under threat, with the "excuse" of austerity. As I have pointed out before, various private sector interests are eyeing the "filet" and other parts of the EU27 health "market"/pie, encouraged, inter alia, by the block of the Obamacare public option in the US in the first 2 years of the Obama admin.
The US, in spite of the continuing bureaucratization of US life and economy (to some extent one could label it, Europization), by comparison to EUrope, the US continues to be a better place for one to pursue one's business, tech, entrepreneurial, artistic, sports, etc dreams, and succeed or fail (and wind up even homeless) when doing so (hence the relative absence of safety nets compared to EUrope).
In 2013?
US best to pursue your dreams, EU best for quality of life.
In 2012, quality of life in the EU27 took a further beating and the European Social Model (with its variations) is under threat, with the "excuse" of austerity. As I have pointed out before, various private sector interests are eyeing the "filet" and other parts of the EU27 health "market"/pie, encouraged, inter alia, by the block of the Obamacare public option in the US in the first 2 years of the Obama admin.
The US, in spite of the continuing bureaucratization of US life and economy (to some extent one could label it, Europization), by comparison to EUrope, the US continues to be a better place for one to pursue one's business, tech, entrepreneurial, artistic, sports, etc dreams, and succeed or fail (and wind up even homeless) when doing so (hence the relative absence of safety nets compared to EUrope).
In 2013?
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
For global and EU systemics to work they need more than trade flows. Or less
Here are some systemics and dynamics thoughts (written and tweeted Nov 24, 2012):
What libertarians seem to forget imo is that any group of more than 1 person constitutes a "society" or polis etc. Laws are part of explicit and informal "social contract" between members of a society/group/polis (politics comes from polis). The economy is also a dimension of a social contract when families stopped self producing everything and started trading w/ each other. Intra-polis trade between families created need for prices (even in barter trade) and thus money. But in basic intra-polis/village trade no one was really left "jobless", was mostly specialization benefits.
I am sure economic theories/models (be they of 5000 BCE or 2012 CE) worked much better in 5000 BCE! In a way, extra-polis trade (see eg explorers to "new worlds") disrupted the social/econ contracts/balances of de facto closed societies. Not to mention that lack of competition rules probably had created warlords and other oligarchs inside closed systems/cities/villages.
Why do I say probably? Cos I was not there to see for myself, at 5000 or something BCE. Were you?
Opening up and allowing trade between families in a polis came as part of social and legal contracts/laws/balance. But but inter-polis (ie inter-national) trade/exchanges were not coupled by common laws and a social/econ contract! Were they? No WTO etc.
That is still in 2012 the underpinning element of trade and other inter-state exchanges of all kinds: They fall outside national scopes. Of course so many are in favor of free trade without unification, it sort of allows them to have the cake and eat it too!! Think about it!
Trade between entities not bound together the way a country is bound together is sort of having a cake and eating it too! Sort of "dumping".
That is also part why most economic models/theories have failed. They deal in principle and de facto with closed systems. Look at GATT and the WTO: It regulates basically trade but fails to deal with many other dimensions thus systemically unbalanced. What I am saying is that trade, investment, migration and other flows need to happen within a "system". Is such system compatible with any sub-global/earth sovereignties? In other words is even trade compatible with national sovereignty since separate social contracts?
Can comparative advantage really exist in a league (competition) between 200+ national economies where there is no actual "league"? Does this mean that the world needs to become a federal political entity for "fair" trade to exist? Is it otherwise an "animal farm"? Can national social contracts exist at the same time as free trade exists? Much like libertarians who want to exploit imo the benefits of a society (econ is a social activity) w/o the "costs" of a society ... Or look at how some in the UK want to free-ride Europe and the world w/o any associated social contracts or rules! Pick and choose only!
Thus no wonder that many of the arguments used against the EU are actually prompting localism/separatism in many EU member states!To use absiloute logic, either sovereign states need to become like eg Cuba or North Korea or join together in a federal entity!!
But in any case, imo trade was, back when it started in human history, the first opener for more open systems. But that was thousands of years ago. Not in 2012! The systemics to work need more than trade flows. Or less.
The idea that one can be a sovereign state (city, national, etc) and still engage even in trade with others is imo challenged in this era! It worked in 1200 BCE or 1400 CE or even 1949 (GATT era) etc but not in the systemics and dynamics of 2000s!
Thus it should come as no real surprise that European and US and world systemics and dynamics are out of control in the 2000s and 2012 and that globalization, regionalization (EU, UNASUR, ASEAN), nationalization (UK), localisation/separatist dynamics do co-exist in 2012! Because systemically speaking the system is out of whack! Freedom of trade and investment cannot work systemically for long w/o full system integration.
Note: Available for research and analysis for think tanks, NGOs, civil society orgs, firms, policy makers, media, academia anywhere in world.
What libertarians seem to forget imo is that any group of more than 1 person constitutes a "society" or polis etc. Laws are part of explicit and informal "social contract" between members of a society/group/polis (politics comes from polis). The economy is also a dimension of a social contract when families stopped self producing everything and started trading w/ each other. Intra-polis trade between families created need for prices (even in barter trade) and thus money. But in basic intra-polis/village trade no one was really left "jobless", was mostly specialization benefits.
I am sure economic theories/models (be they of 5000 BCE or 2012 CE) worked much better in 5000 BCE! In a way, extra-polis trade (see eg explorers to "new worlds") disrupted the social/econ contracts/balances of de facto closed societies. Not to mention that lack of competition rules probably had created warlords and other oligarchs inside closed systems/cities/villages.
Why do I say probably? Cos I was not there to see for myself, at 5000 or something BCE. Were you?
Opening up and allowing trade between families in a polis came as part of social and legal contracts/laws/balance. But but inter-polis (ie inter-national) trade/exchanges were not coupled by common laws and a social/econ contract! Were they? No WTO etc.
That is still in 2012 the underpinning element of trade and other inter-state exchanges of all kinds: They fall outside national scopes. Of course so many are in favor of free trade without unification, it sort of allows them to have the cake and eat it too!! Think about it!
Trade between entities not bound together the way a country is bound together is sort of having a cake and eating it too! Sort of "dumping".
That is also part why most economic models/theories have failed. They deal in principle and de facto with closed systems. Look at GATT and the WTO: It regulates basically trade but fails to deal with many other dimensions thus systemically unbalanced. What I am saying is that trade, investment, migration and other flows need to happen within a "system". Is such system compatible with any sub-global/earth sovereignties? In other words is even trade compatible with national sovereignty since separate social contracts?
Can comparative advantage really exist in a league (competition) between 200+ national economies where there is no actual "league"? Does this mean that the world needs to become a federal political entity for "fair" trade to exist? Is it otherwise an "animal farm"? Can national social contracts exist at the same time as free trade exists? Much like libertarians who want to exploit imo the benefits of a society (econ is a social activity) w/o the "costs" of a society ... Or look at how some in the UK want to free-ride Europe and the world w/o any associated social contracts or rules! Pick and choose only!
But in any case, imo trade was, back when it started in human history, the first opener for more open systems. But that was thousands of years ago. Not in 2012! The systemics to work need more than trade flows. Or less.
The idea that one can be a sovereign state (city, national, etc) and still engage even in trade with others is imo challenged in this era! It worked in 1200 BCE or 1400 CE or even 1949 (GATT era) etc but not in the systemics and dynamics of 2000s!
Thus it should come as no real surprise that European and US and world systemics and dynamics are out of control in the 2000s and 2012 and that globalization, regionalization (EU, UNASUR, ASEAN), nationalization (UK), localisation/separatist dynamics do co-exist in 2012! Because systemically speaking the system is out of whack! Freedom of trade and investment cannot work systemically for long w/o full system integration.
Note: Available for research and analysis for think tanks, NGOs, civil society orgs, firms, policy makers, media, academia anywhere in world.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
NP Live Blog - November 6: Omabaland
To follow the flow, start from the bottom and read up:
Afternoon:
Obama-Romney:
What happens if there is a tie? Extra time or penalties?
Nothing to fear but Romney being President.
America will come "roaring back"? With a Chinese engine?
Morning: EU: The euro's credibility was built on an in-credible inflation minimization dogma that pushed the euro skyhigh. Hence the resulting vertigo.
Governing Dynamics: Capital is vagabond and homeless, so are companies, services and products. Can humans do it, though?
Governing Dynamics - Competitiveness: Only the homeless will survive?
Afternoon:
Obama-Romney:
What happens if there is a tie? Extra time or penalties?
Nothing to fear but Romney being President.
America will come "roaring back"? With a Chinese engine?
Morning: EU: The euro's credibility was built on an in-credible inflation minimization dogma that pushed the euro skyhigh. Hence the resulting vertigo.
Governing Dynamics: Capital is vagabond and homeless, so are companies, services and products. Can humans do it, though?
Governing Dynamics - Competitiveness: Only the homeless will survive?
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Systemics and Dynamics Live NP Blog, October 31, 2012
Read bottom up to follow the flow:
Evening:
Euro crisis/Troika:
I thought memorandums were supposed to be brief, not as brief as executive summaries, but brief.
There seem to be 2 divergent views re the effect of Sandy on US economy: a) disruption of the recovery b) growth stimulus effect by money spend on the damages, multiplied by a greater than 1.0 factor. As per electoral effects, some think it may prove beneficial for Obama and Dems if seems presidential in his dealing with Sandy effects is deemed effective. Or could backfire. Will it also restore some faith of people in "government" and make collective esprit (eg health care) more popular. Guess we shall see.
Early morning:
EU/Euro/econ/fin crises:
Many admire the Iceland "model" of dealing with it. But they should recall it has a population of 320,000, a total area of 103,000 km2 out there in the Atlantic and a volcano!
More philosophical:
The problem with parents raising their kids with prince/princess aka noble values is that unless they also give them a Principauté, they are in for a rough ride in the "streets" of life.
Philosophical:
Hard times for "princes" and "princesses" (not the real ones, the other ones). Also hard for vagabonds, though. Unless in warmer climates.
Jobs/Career:
For decades now, searching for a job had become a job. In recent years, it has become a career.
Evening:
Euro crisis/Troika:
I thought memorandums were supposed to be brief, not as brief as executive summaries, but brief.
There seem to be 2 divergent views re the effect of Sandy on US economy: a) disruption of the recovery b) growth stimulus effect by money spend on the damages, multiplied by a greater than 1.0 factor. As per electoral effects, some think it may prove beneficial for Obama and Dems if seems presidential in his dealing with Sandy effects is deemed effective. Or could backfire. Will it also restore some faith of people in "government" and make collective esprit (eg health care) more popular. Guess we shall see.
Early morning:
EU/Euro/econ/fin crises:
Many admire the Iceland "model" of dealing with it. But they should recall it has a population of 320,000, a total area of 103,000 km2 out there in the Atlantic and a volcano!
More philosophical:
The problem with parents raising their kids with prince/princess aka noble values is that unless they also give them a Principauté, they are in for a rough ride in the "streets" of life.
Philosophical:
Hard times for "princes" and "princesses" (not the real ones, the other ones). Also hard for vagabonds, though. Unless in warmer climates.
Jobs/Career:
For decades now, searching for a job had become a job. In recent years, it has become a career.
Systemics and Dynamics Live NP Blog, October 30, 2012
Read from the bottom up to follow the flow:
USA:
Time for allegiance between people > Obama to the Rescue | The Big Dog Barks | No Time for Politics? http://t.co/bZw1okwP Nature is showing who is the real boss, and should make lots of people think about human-to-human allegiance and the role of government in the US. May thus help the Dems + Obama
Greece:
Had the Greek gov't in the 1980s established a real unemployment benefits system, like other EU, maybe Greece would be different today.
Econ:
No kidding! RT @ForexLive: Merkel/Lagarde: Global Economic Recovery Remains Uncertain http://t.co/B3yRytd6 Oct 30, 2012
Info, what info?
What unrest(s) in ATH/GRE? Most if not all events have taken place on/near 1 square. Intern media have made it seem wider.
Roesler/FDP:
Roesler "strikes" again re Greece, but will this campaign save his FDP "Empire" in next GER elections? #EuroWars #EmpireStrikesBack
Greece:
Now all Greece needs is a Tea Party. #stoicgeek
Was it a 2-way call? Mobile or landline? Roaming fees? Smartphone or not?
Merkel:
She is a politician too, But that is why she gave GR such a hard time, to make sure, she thought, no one else would ask 4 for same. So she thought,
Banking Union:
The EU or Euro or Euro+ shouldn't be banking on banking union as a facility towards political union. The road is different, political/civil
Labour Market (EU27):
Call me again when the #EU gets a labour market, instead of 27. By that time, there will be no labour, only robots and stepford workers.
For labour market reforms to have a raison-d-'etre, there has to be a labour market, dear Troika! #EU\
News vs Opinion:
Who cares what someone said about anything? That's not news, that's opinions. Cool but not real news, is it?
Sandy left death and damages, some member wants to leave EU, EU squabbles, GR is complicated, etc etc. The news? Oh c'mon, you know the news (EU, UK, US, etc). Same old, same old.
EU27:
If the 27 cannot agree on EU budget, why not make it a federal one with 26, 20, 17 or 10? Anyway, not the budget but the policies that count
Caprica:
NYSE re-opening tomorrow! Sure, finance does not need humans anymore! #Caprica #Sandy Oct 30, 2012
Troika/Greece:
I don't care what Troika says, the Greek competitiveness-growth-employment model has to be based on free lancers, and exporting micros+SMEs
For whom are the labor market reforms many in GR oppose??? Most of the "private sector" was always free lancers and even more so today!
EU Regional Policy:
EU funds diverted the attention of Objective 1 (PIIGS) from EU policies and effects. PIIGS would have been, I know it's a heretic view, better off w/o them
EU?
Let's face it. EEC/EU has not really been a union, more of a FRA-GER-UK thing with associate members the rest
Maybe EU better off w/o GER, FRA, UK, tho. A more real union.
EU and PIGS as family:
Some would even say a family is not real unless there are internal fights. Look at ancient Greeks! lol Oct 30, 2012
Greeks fight each other all the time they r still a family.The best of families do. But they unite when needed
3//3 Or Germans., Dutch, Finns, Slovaks, Austrians et al can move to the PIGS now and enjoy real life! #MoveToTheMed4RealLife
2/3 Of course they can wait 50-100 yrs, global warming will turn Euro core etc into PIGS and PIGS into Sahara
1/3 The truth is that many other EUROpeans envy the PIGS cos of their sun, sea, sand, zest, instead of rain, cold, esp Humidity.
EUROpeans want(ed) a stable currency but not the extra hard EURO-DM it turned out to be (at 1.4, 1.5 times USD etc) Oct 30, 2012
About the UK:
It's complicated: Everything is simple. So simple that it's complicated.
Not quite. "Other" economies had been spoiled by Eurozone's impors from them. RT @MStarDirect: Eurozone's troubles hurting other economies, chiefly E. Europe & Latin America. Latin America also feeling pinch fr ...
My take on Greece:
My main "take" on Greece is that no one's take, including mine, is accurate. That's Greece. Un-takeable. That's my main take on Greece.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Systemics and Dynamics Live NP Blog, October 29, 2012
Please read from the bottom up to follow the flow:
Schauble says EU needs the UK at Oxford:
Or Schauble simply playing "good cop" on the UK to Merkel's "bad cop" on the UK? The reverse roles compared to Greece, that is! lol
Maybe Schauble's call on the UK to stay in EU = sign EU getting unstuck between German exceptionalism and UK Euroscepticism?
So Schauble is playing "bad cop" on Greece and "good cop" on the UK? lol Oct 29, 2012
In reference to Schauble's EU call to the UK today, read my 2005 analysis: Britain and the heart of Europe http://t.co/P4jge3ty
Re UK in Eu read "The EU and the UK in a prisoner's dilemma!" in my: How many countries committed "economic suicide" http://t.co/5ycd7VxB
Or a desperate call for help on how to deal with a feasibly emerging ESP+ITA plus FRA (?) "alliance" in EU/Euro matters? #SchaubleNeedsUK
An admission EU doesnt speak Cauder's German? RT @ReutersWorld Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq
Seems to me GER needs UK to debate FRA ideas RT @ReutersWorld: Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq
Italy and EU:
When Italy became a country in the 1870s, the North imposed its laws + policies on the South. The effects linger. Lessons for EU - Eurozone?
Capitalism:
Matthew 19:24 and related passages directly contradict Calvinist predeternination. Imho.
On direct vs rep democracy:
So you think the concept of elected reps of the ppl and civil soc orgs with time and staff to KNOW the draft laws can be replaced? By what?
U think direct democracy, IRL or on the Net, is easy? Was it not for slaves work, u think Ancient Athenians wld have enuff time 4 politics?
Greece:
My main "take" on Greece is that no one's take, including mine, is accurate. That's Greece. Un-takeable. That's my main take on Greece.
Centrism:
When will the main parties in the US, UK, etc converge to the center in ideas + policies and compete in their ability to implement them?
On humanity in 2012:
The main disease that is turning so many of us into real zombies is greed. Oct 29, 2012
Does it take Natural disasters or will it take a comet from outer space threat for ppl to realise we all humans and shld stick together?
Why so difficult?
Why is it so difficult for so many to realise the difference between speculative and entrepreneurial risk? Even Sarkozy did!
People in at least The West know the ratrace is ravaging them. Instead of calling it off they want everyone in to suffer like they do? Why
Why is it so difficult for so many Europeans to realise that austerity and crash of GDP does not foster growth?
Why is it so difficult for so many American voters to realise the need for a public option in health insurance?
Why so difficult for many to realise a balance of individualism + collectivism, instead of 1 of the 2, is best? Not simplistic enuff 4 them?
It's ideologies tht focus on the individual or collective instead of balance of the 2 that unbalance the world
I guess Nature is reminding American voters who's the real boss and why allegiance between humans a good thing! Will they get the msg? And vote for the Dems?
Greece:
What is the worse that can happen Nov 16?
Mantra:
Rationalize, Simplify, Economize. A good mantra for 2012?
Sandy:
Who names storms and hurricanes? After ex-GFs? For revenge?
Merkel:
Merkel has been conducting Ein Experiment on 330 million. She leads the way. But remember Das Experiment movie? Did she ever watch it? Oct 29, 2012
Pop Cult:
Walking Nationless: A new TV series coming soon to a European TV station near you! 500,000,000 wandering aimlessly.
Walking Jobless. A horror drama series coming soon! Oh my, the jobless disease that taken over their minds! #media
Centrism:
I am a geek and my audience is people and decision makers (biz, pol) of moderate but progressive/innovative mentality in Europe. US, world.
Libertarianism:
Other than than, no one really bothers me, even libertarians or nationalist or anti-EUers. as long as they are not in my T/L.
Libertarianism is as unrealistic as communism. Only works when one alone on an island. Liberal Democrat: is another thing.
In short: Rand is as irrelevant as Marx. Had enough of libertarians when I ran with a libdem (I thought) party in Euro-1999.
US of E:
My support for a US of Europe is not ideological, it is practical (and constructively critical). Why? I lived in a US (of A) for 5.5 yrs! Oct 29, 2012
EU and the SMEs:
A real EU single market would have led to pan-EU niche markets for SMEs. But not a real single mkt yet, is it? #Marketing
PIGS and EU Animal Farm:
Are we on the verge of experiencing a rise of the PIGS (+FRA) in EU/Euro politics/decision making? Just askin. Reading signs?
Mark his words or not?
Rajoy: Spain, Italy Back Greece Remaining In Euro "one down will be all down.
Systemics:
The biggest "fights" people have are not with other ppl but group-think as well as systemics and dynamics. Much harder than person-on-person. And karate won't do.
From USSR to the EU to ....:
From good bye Lenin to good bye Merkel?
EU:
Athens in the Delos Allaince, Germany in the Eurozone or EU. Compare and contrast!
Memories:
Memories were meant to fade for a reason (from one of my poems)
Schauble says EU needs the UK at Oxford:
Or Schauble simply playing "good cop" on the UK to Merkel's "bad cop" on the UK? The reverse roles compared to Greece, that is! lol
Maybe Schauble's call on the UK to stay in EU = sign EU getting unstuck between German exceptionalism and UK Euroscepticism?
So Schauble is playing "bad cop" on Greece and "good cop" on the UK? lol Oct 29, 2012
In reference to Schauble's EU call to the UK today, read my 2005 analysis: Britain and the heart of Europe http://t.co/P4jge3ty
Re UK in Eu read "The EU and the UK in a prisoner's dilemma!" in my: How many countries committed "economic suicide" http://t.co/5ycd7VxB
Or a desperate call for help on how to deal with a feasibly emerging ESP+ITA plus FRA (?) "alliance" in EU/Euro matters? #SchaubleNeedsUK
An admission EU doesnt speak Cauder's German? RT @ReutersWorld Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq
Seems to me GER needs UK to debate FRA ideas RT @ReutersWorld: Germany's Schaeuble tells skeptical UK "EU needs you" http://t.co/AuqM74tq
Italy and EU:
When Italy became a country in the 1870s, the North imposed its laws + policies on the South. The effects linger. Lessons for EU - Eurozone?
Capitalism:
Matthew 19:24 and related passages directly contradict Calvinist predeternination. Imho.
On direct vs rep democracy:
So you think the concept of elected reps of the ppl and civil soc orgs with time and staff to KNOW the draft laws can be replaced? By what?
U think direct democracy, IRL or on the Net, is easy? Was it not for slaves work, u think Ancient Athenians wld have enuff time 4 politics?
Greece:
My main "take" on Greece is that no one's take, including mine, is accurate. That's Greece. Un-takeable. That's my main take on Greece.
Centrism:
When will the main parties in the US, UK, etc converge to the center in ideas + policies and compete in their ability to implement them?
On humanity in 2012:
The main disease that is turning so many of us into real zombies is greed. Oct 29, 2012
Does it take Natural disasters or will it take a comet from outer space threat for ppl to realise we all humans and shld stick together?
Why so difficult?
Why is it so difficult for so many to realise the difference between speculative and entrepreneurial risk? Even Sarkozy did!
People in at least The West know the ratrace is ravaging them. Instead of calling it off they want everyone in to suffer like they do? Why
Why is it so difficult for so many Europeans to realise that austerity and crash of GDP does not foster growth?
Why is it so difficult for so many American voters to realise the need for a public option in health insurance?
Why so difficult for many to realise a balance of individualism + collectivism, instead of 1 of the 2, is best? Not simplistic enuff 4 them?
It's ideologies tht focus on the individual or collective instead of balance of the 2 that unbalance the world
I guess Nature is reminding American voters who's the real boss and why allegiance between humans a good thing! Will they get the msg? And vote for the Dems?
What is the worse that can happen Nov 16?
Mantra:
Rationalize, Simplify, Economize. A good mantra for 2012?
Sandy:
Who names storms and hurricanes? After ex-GFs? For revenge?
Merkel:
Merkel has been conducting Ein Experiment on 330 million. She leads the way. But remember Das Experiment movie? Did she ever watch it? Oct 29, 2012
Pop Cult:
Walking Nationless: A new TV series coming soon to a European TV station near you! 500,000,000 wandering aimlessly.
Walking Jobless. A horror drama series coming soon! Oh my, the jobless disease that taken over their minds! #media
Centrism:
I am a geek and my audience is people and decision makers (biz, pol) of moderate but progressive/innovative mentality in Europe. US, world.
Libertarianism:
Other than than, no one really bothers me, even libertarians or nationalist or anti-EUers. as long as they are not in my T/L.
Libertarianism is as unrealistic as communism. Only works when one alone on an island. Liberal Democrat: is another thing.
In short: Rand is as irrelevant as Marx. Had enough of libertarians when I ran with a libdem (I thought) party in Euro-1999.
US of E:
My support for a US of Europe is not ideological, it is practical (and constructively critical). Why? I lived in a US (of A) for 5.5 yrs! Oct 29, 2012
EU and the SMEs:
A real EU single market would have led to pan-EU niche markets for SMEs. But not a real single mkt yet, is it? #Marketing
PIGS and EU Animal Farm:
Are we on the verge of experiencing a rise of the PIGS (+FRA) in EU/Euro politics/decision making? Just askin. Reading signs?
Mark his words or not?
Rajoy: Spain, Italy Back Greece Remaining In Euro "one down will be all down.
Systemics:
The biggest "fights" people have are not with other ppl but group-think as well as systemics and dynamics. Much harder than person-on-person. And karate won't do.
From USSR to the EU to ....:
From good bye Lenin to good bye Merkel?
EU:
Athens in the Delos Allaince, Germany in the Eurozone or EU. Compare and contrast!
Memories:
Memories were meant to fade for a reason (from one of my poems)
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
On the third Obama-Romney debate
So Obama won the foreign policy debate.
But how many undecided American voters really care about US foreign policy?
Just asking!
But how many undecided American voters really care about US foreign policy?
Just asking!
My take on Obama
My take on Obama:
1) His election to the Presidency was a milestone in US history.
2) But the dynamics of the US 4 years ago (including GOP+Tea+Fox) were more in need of a running game under heavy rain rather than a passing game (to borrow a US football analogy) and thus called more for a Hillary type of President. Think for example ofthe watering down of Obamacare due to Obama's efforts to bring GOP in, to no avail.
3) Overall, his presidency is maybe a victim of expectations maybe too high by his electorate.
4) Mitt Romney and his ideology and policy views, or any other less "moderate" republican (is there such a thing) do not deserve the presidency. Especially with someone like Paul Ryan, and his ideology/policy views, as VP. Only a really moderate GOP would, a GOP that is unlikely to emerge any time soon, alas.
That's why Obama still in the running, in spite of high unemployment. And why Mitt is still in the running too, in spite of being, well, Mitt!
5) Thus: Between Mitt (esp plus Ryan) and Obama, the choice is, clearly; Obama. In any case, not Romney.
1) His election to the Presidency was a milestone in US history.
2) But the dynamics of the US 4 years ago (including GOP+Tea+Fox) were more in need of a running game under heavy rain rather than a passing game (to borrow a US football analogy) and thus called more for a Hillary type of President. Think for example ofthe watering down of Obamacare due to Obama's efforts to bring GOP in, to no avail.
3) Overall, his presidency is maybe a victim of expectations maybe too high by his electorate.
4) Mitt Romney and his ideology and policy views, or any other less "moderate" republican (is there such a thing) do not deserve the presidency. Especially with someone like Paul Ryan, and his ideology/policy views, as VP. Only a really moderate GOP would, a GOP that is unlikely to emerge any time soon, alas.
That's why Obama still in the running, in spite of high unemployment. And why Mitt is still in the running too, in spite of being, well, Mitt!
5) Thus: Between Mitt (esp plus Ryan) and Obama, the choice is, clearly; Obama. In any case, not Romney.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Who will be the EU's "Romans"?
Judging by some of the arguments being used around the EU27 and the Euro17 today the EU could wind up with city-states or 500,000,000 states of one!
While the best interest of the 500,000,000 imo is ONE country of 500,000,000. (1/14th of world population) able to stand tall next to China (1,300,000,000), India (1,200,000,000) and USA (310,000,000).
Ancient Greece did not have the wisdom to unite into a political union. And paid the price. Does Europe have to wisdom to avoid same price?
Ancient Athens was acting like a primadona (in the Delos Alliance, Sparta left early). Then Sparta beat Athens and acted like an even bigger primadona-bully to the other Greek city-states. Then Thebes eliminated Sparta as a power. Then Macedonia took the lead (reminds one of the EU, with Germany, UK, France playing corresponding parts).
Then came the Romans and engulfed all Greek city states under the Roman Empire. Then others. Greece became a country 180 years ago. So: Who will be the EU's "Romans"? The Russians? China? America? All three? Someone else?
Oh Europe, wake up and see what is going on in the world!
More analysis of the above topic available to clients and close friends
While the best interest of the 500,000,000 imo is ONE country of 500,000,000. (1/14th of world population) able to stand tall next to China (1,300,000,000), India (1,200,000,000) and USA (310,000,000).
Or maybe Europe has "too much" history while not enough wisdom to survive as anything and soon may be taken over (become economic or other subsidiary or cantons) by others!
Ancient Greece did not have the wisdom to unite into a political union. And paid the price. Does Europe have to wisdom to avoid same price?
Ancient Athens was acting like a primadona (in the Delos Alliance, Sparta left early). Then Sparta beat Athens and acted like an even bigger primadona-bully to the other Greek city-states. Then Thebes eliminated Sparta as a power. Then Macedonia took the lead (reminds one of the EU, with Germany, UK, France playing corresponding parts).
Then came the Romans and engulfed all Greek city states under the Roman Empire. Then others. Greece became a country 180 years ago. So: Who will be the EU's "Romans"? The Russians? China? America? All three? Someone else?
Oh Europe, wake up and see what is going on in the world!
More analysis of the above topic available to clients and close friends
Sunday, September 30, 2012
A legacy of Bill Clinton?
Watched the Clinton documentary on BBC 2 tonight. I am always amazed how Gore managed to blow the 2000 election and gave the world Dubya!
The GOP fiercely tried and failed to bring Clinton down. But it did have effect on US and world events later.
The GOP really hated Bill Clinton. With good reason. He had the highest rating of any other outgoing President.
The GOP did not manage to bring Clinton down but to affect some of his decisions as President that later had effect on US and world.
In spite of all his scandals, Bill Clinton was so popular when his presidency ended. All Gore had to do was ride the wave, the way Bush Sr had done. But no, he had to distance himself from Clinton due to Monicagate. And got off the wave. And Dubya won.
Many in the GOP failed to grasp that Clinton had and still has charisma few politicians did/do.
Obama in 2012, Hillary in 2016 and 2020. That is in a way a legacy of Bill Clinton
.
Had Gore not messed up in 2000 (and in 2004), it could mean 32 years of Democrats in the White House (Bill, Gore, Obama, Hillary).
But I am less of a fan of the GOP, especially in the period after the Bush Sr. Presidency to date
.
I am not particularly a fan of Bill Clinton, but this is my analysis!
The GOP has the potential to do good, but it has to turn towards the center, instead of the right (tea, libertarians, austerians etc).
The GOP fiercely tried and failed to bring Clinton down. But it did have effect on US and world events later.
The GOP really hated Bill Clinton. With good reason. He had the highest rating of any other outgoing President.
The GOP did not manage to bring Clinton down but to affect some of his decisions as President that later had effect on US and world.
Many in the GOP failed to grasp that Clinton had and still has charisma few politicians did/do.
Obama in 2012, Hillary in 2016 and 2020. That is in a way a legacy of Bill Clinton
.
Had Gore not messed up in 2000 (and in 2004), it could mean 32 years of Democrats in the White House (Bill, Gore, Obama, Hillary).
But I am less of a fan of the GOP, especially in the period after the Bush Sr. Presidency to date
.
I am not particularly a fan of Bill Clinton, but this is my analysis!
The GOP has the potential to do good, but it has to turn towards the center, instead of the right (tea, libertarians, austerians etc).
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Paymasters, in the EU and the US
Why is no one talking of "paymaster" states among the 50 US states?
Because the US has a real union, unlike the EU/EZ!
Because the US has a real union, unlike the EU/EZ!
What some people don't seem to get re the hard Euro
In the years of the hard Euro, ie when the Euro was (until relatively recently) quite high compared to the USD, the Yuan and other currencies of major trade partners (and tourist origins eg USA), that suffocated much of EZ business because it not only had a hard time exporting to non-Euro markets but also faced (when eg Euro was 1.4 or 1.5 USD) more fierce competition inside the Eurozone and even their own "national" markets.
So while interest rates for Eurozome member states were lower than past thus allowing them to borrow more (via sovereign bonds) than the pre-Euro years, they were still high enough (in order to stick to the 2% inflation target of the then ECB directorate) compared to US, UK and other central bank interest rates, for the Euro to be expensive Euro vis-a-vis USA, China, etc.
So while the budgets of Euro member states benefited from cheaper money, and maybe companies too, the price competitiveness of many Eurozone businesses (including tourist ones) took a severe, IMO, beating.
So while interest rates for Eurozome member states were lower than past thus allowing them to borrow more (via sovereign bonds) than the pre-Euro years, they were still high enough (in order to stick to the 2% inflation target of the then ECB directorate) compared to US, UK and other central bank interest rates, for the Euro to be expensive Euro vis-a-vis USA, China, etc.
So while the budgets of Euro member states benefited from cheaper money, and maybe companies too, the price competitiveness of many Eurozone businesses (including tourist ones) took a severe, IMO, beating.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Is Germany a bull in the Eurozone's China Store?
Some thoughts of mine on PressEurop's very interesting report: Berlin still selling too much (14/8/2012)
1) The FAZ comments IMO, at best, show (let's call it) "non-systemic thinking".
2) Is Germany exporting too much or importing and in general consuming too little? Too little from the Eurozone?
3) In terms of trade surplus, Germany is a bull in a China Store. Funny thing is, Germany's inflation phobia makes China another bull in the Eurozone and EU's "stores"/mkts for goods.
4) Germany saves "a lot" which means it has to find outlets for its investments. No wonder Germany had invested "a lot" in the PIIGS (while selling "a lot" to them too). The rest is not "rocket science"!
5) But the strategic/systemic question is: Is Germany too big to be part of the EU/EZ but too small to be a power on its own? And if Germany is too small to be a world power on its own, what do that say for eg UK's ambitions? France, sometimes arrogant, nevertheless knows it needs "Europe". UK and Germany (and others) act as if they do not.
6) Marketing: What exactly is Germany exporting that the Eurozone (40%), EU (60%), the world, a) cannot substitute or b) always need/want?
7) So with Germany having cornered the high quality market, China the low price one & US the new tech one, what's left for (most of) the rest?
8) Problem not only that Berlin still selling too much but its policy/philosophy not selling (in many parts of Europe/EU/Eurozone)
Saturday, July 14, 2012
The row over the uniforms and the WTO factor
My comment re "Made-in-China US Olympic uniforms spark political row" (Reuters):
China joined the WTO in December 2001. Is it time the US considers leaving the WTO?
The EU?
A departure of the US (and the EU?) from the WTO would not mean no trade. It would mean reliance on bilateral rather than the multilateral (ie WTO) agreements re the "rules" of trade (and possibly other economic issues and, why not, economic immigration).
China joined the WTO in December 2001. Is it time the US considers leaving the WTO?
The EU?
A departure of the US (and the EU?) from the WTO would not mean no trade. It would mean reliance on bilateral rather than the multilateral (ie WTO) agreements re the "rules" of trade (and possibly other economic issues and, why not, economic immigration).
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Single Market: How single is single?
A labyrinth of federal, state and local laws make life difficult for average citizens & SMEs even in the USA.
A "single market" that works for ave people & SMEs needs single laws.
Hence a United States of Europe may not be what Europe actually needs. Maybe it's a Federal Republic of Europe? How single is the German single/internal market?
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Capitalism: My definition
Capitalism is the system where people make money out of money, by lending or investing it and where te most crucial resource for starting and operating a business is financial (monetary) capital.
The transition from manufacturing and other industry to services as well as intellectual (largely non-tangible, non-material) products was supposed to gradually decrease the importance of financial capital in starting and operating a business (services or intellectual products such as music, books/ideas etc) and increase the importance of labour-human capital and the grey matter.
For many reasons, this has not happened. I have and will continue to tweet and blog on the reasons (eg here). In this post I want to emphasize that the extra-time that Capitalism as I defined it has got has produced some really weird dynamics. Is the strategic option for the US and the EU to save and even regain manufacturing from Japan, China et al, or to learn how to live in a post-industrial era (at least for the "West")?
The transition from manufacturing and other industry to services as well as intellectual (largely non-tangible, non-material) products was supposed to gradually decrease the importance of financial capital in starting and operating a business (services or intellectual products such as music, books/ideas etc) and increase the importance of labour-human capital and the grey matter.
For many reasons, this has not happened. I have and will continue to tweet and blog on the reasons (eg here). In this post I want to emphasize that the extra-time that Capitalism as I defined it has got has produced some really weird dynamics. Is the strategic option for the US and the EU to save and even regain manufacturing from Japan, China et al, or to learn how to live in a post-industrial era (at least for the "West")?
Monday, April 30, 2012
Which is more important for Europe's anti-austerity dynamics?
Both are important factors, but which is more important for Europe's anti-austerity dynamcs?
a) Hoillande win on May 6
or
b) Obama re-election?
a) Hoillande win on May 6
or
b) Obama re-election?
Monday, April 16, 2012
From Mar del Plata to Cartagena.
George W. Bush Jr. had his, in Mar del Plata, in 2005. Now Obama has his, in Cartagena.
What?
Failure to create consensus in the Americas.
What?
Failure to create consensus in the Americas.
Monday, April 9, 2012
EU's Fringe?
Given Germany's stance in EU and Eurozone matters in recent years, how many EUropeans would rather their states were members of the United States of America instead of a Germany dominated EU - Eurozone?
Maybe in a parallel universe they are?
Maybe in a parallel universe they are?
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