Like in the movies

The latest piece of biz news from Hollywood, Disney film boss Rich Ross resigns after John Carter flop, reminds me of a report I must have read or heard, I think it was BBC Worldservice, some 10 years ago but has resided in my mind ever since.

Only one out of 10 films a Hollywood studio produces makes it bog.

Maybe 3-4 others make a profiit

The rest lose money, one of them a lot.

The 1 out of ten though makes or has to make enough money to also cover for all the losing ones!

I like the movie business, when a kid I wanted to study film at UCLA and go to Hollywood. Was not meant to be, because I considered the odds of success vs the cost of college to my parents, Anyway

It's about risk and return, both expected (risk and return) and real, the ex past facto.

That type of risk the average .man, woman or household does not fancy taking. Wants an as stable as possible life,, an environment to have and bring up kids.

Some, the "knights" are willing to live lives of more risk. For the expectation of extra return or some, for the thrills. Some because of the nature of many times of business, venturing or even trying. But those who take the risks should be the ones who incur the costs when the project turns sour, not the average people.

Knights in suits. Once upon a time, wearing a suit meant something. Especially a dark grey one. For years now that is not the case. That is why I have not worn one in years.

My point is: Should more (employees, managers, stakeholders, media, et al) realise that doing business in many sectors nowadays is like in the movies (ie they are like film studios)?

The effect of US and European polynomy on growth and jobs

US & European polynomy (ie too many laws, regulations and red tape) has suffocated the real economy and especially the micros & SMEs.

Unless fixed, don't expect growth & jobs in the US & EU

The recipe for growth and jobs

If politicians, governments and policy makers want growth and jobs then they must reduce the quantity and improve the quality of legislation, new and existing; so simple and yet so hard to do.

Wotk in the present and future

Do not ask people what they do for a living.

Ask them how and why they do it.

The present and future of work

No work is shameful when done for the right reasons.

Every work is shameful when done for the wrong ones.

Real

Real capitalism is not about real estate based business & investing.

Real economy is elsewhere (other sectors).

The issue is:

How much "real economy" is left in the US and Europe for it to provide real growth & real jobs?

Nationalism vs Cosmopolitanism or Earth Sovereignty

"May you live in interesting times" was actually an Ancient Chinese curse! These days, since Friday, we are all Japanese (to paraphrase JFK's "Ich bin ein Berliner"). Shocking events since Friday, the earthquakes, the tsunamis and last but not least, radiation! News these days are more dramatic than most scary film scenarios.

Among many other things, they have prompted protests re the use of nuclear energy in France, stress tests of the plans in Germany demanded by Angela Merkel and an EU stress test of nuclear plants initiative.

Can the EU work as "one" on this? Or is it losing whatever community spirit it had in previous decades due to the emergence of nationalism in recent years?

National vs Natural:

"Splitting up? The re-nationalization of Europe" is the topic of a most interesting article in Eurozine based on a discussion between Andriy Shevchenko and David Van Reybrouck. A must read, IMO!

1-2 points from the article (which I fully recommend as food for thought):

1) On the 23 languages in the EU: "And it means that there is no common forum. There is no European public space"

2) Also read how France managed to create French identity in less than 64 yrs!

Via the imposition of French as the single/only language in France, in the 1850s!

IMO, Cosmopolitanism will be "enforced" in EUrope and the rest of the world by Earth's Nature & its "events", ie Nature will defeat nationalism. Because earthquakes (like the ones the Japan) and the resulting tsunamis, volcanos (eg as the one in Iceland and its recent effect on most of Europ), birds (that the flu they may carry), CO2 and radiation pollution etc do not require passports or visas, they have no "respect" for national borders, sovereignty or identities. They remind us that we all 6.9 billion live on the same vessel. These realisations will defeat nationalism and re-activate universalism or cosmopolitanism (citizenship of the world).

Plus what good is one country's no nukes policy if a few miles across the water or land, its neighbour has located one of its own nuclear energy plants?

Plus IMO the issue of use of nuclear energy in the EU could be the topic of the first ever EU citizens initiative. The kind of topic that will unite the EUropean public opinion or Society. Energy: The answer is in the wind and under the sun!

Real catastrophes:

On Monday, FN President Marine Le Pen toured a centter for illegal migrants on Italy's Lampedusa island. "I have come to express my real concern on the ground. The European Union does not have any solution. We are going to see a real catastrophe and the EU is impotent" she said, inter alia (Yahoo! xtra news, AAP).

My comment re "real catastrophe": The ageing EU has capacity & wealth enough for citizens & immigrants. Real catastrophes are earthquakes, volcanos, nuclear pollution etc!

Real internationalists:

"Euroscepticism: liberal, modern, internationalist, moderate and cross-party" is the title of Daniel Hannan's opinion piece in the Telegraph on March 15! For sure!!!!

According to tweet today by the EU Commissioner Mrs Viviane Reding, there are about 16 million international couples (13% out of 122 million couples) in the EU. Maybe they and their children are the main drivers of EUropean identity.

In the meantime, "World braces for Japan economic hit" is the title of an insightful article by Ben White in Politico (politico.com) today. Inter alia, he points out that in January Japan held nearly $886 billion in Treasury securities while China $1.2 trillion US (some 4 times the ones held by UK investors). But IMO this is no time for Economics. As humans, we must focus on Japan and the Japanese people and all others in Japan, the heroes working inside the tainted plants, and maybe also think how some technology is good for humankind whereas other is not. And how for an economy to exist, humans are needed. IMO our era is too financial. Is it also too technological?

Only one economics piece: According to RTE Business today, "The European Commission has proposed a common system of working out the tax base of businesses operating in the EU".
Plus also today, the ratings agency Noddy's downgraded Portugal's sovereign debt rating from A1 to A3.

Not very human-centered times!

Approx. 205 million of the world's population were out of work in 2010, according to recent figures from the United Nations. This means that the EU has 11% of the world's unemployed while it has 7% of the world population (0.5 vs 6.9 bn)

Recent Eurostat stats:

Eurostat 1st estimate: Q4 of 2010 Eurozone and EU employment up by 0.1% vs Q3 2010. +0.3% in both vs Q4 of 2009.

Eurostat: January 2011 compared with December 2010 Industrial production up by 0.3% in Eurozone. Up by 0.6% in EU

Industrial Relations, what Industrial Relations?

The Industrial Relations in Europe Conference. The conference, 17-18 March in Brussels, aims to present and discuss the issues raised in the 2010 Industrial Relations in Europe report with an audience of social partners, academics and representatives of the Member States.

Every two years the European Commission produces an Industrial Relations in Europe report, which provides an overview of industrial relations developments in Europe for the previous two-year period. The 2010 edition is the sixth report in the series.

Around 150 participants will be invited to the event, which will consist of four panel sessions each devoted to one aspect of the report:

Session I - Industrial Relations in Europe in the 21st century's first decade
Session II – Negotiating the crisis: the actors of social dialogue
Session III – Industrial relations outcomes: overcoming the crisis
Session IV – The possible contribution of social partners to the Europe 2020 strategy

The conference, as the report itself, will focus on a review of industrial relations in times of economic crisis and on the role of social dialogue in achieving the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.

IMO, with a conservative majority in the European Parliament (EPP plus the ECR (Tories etc)) & the EU Commissioners' College and the various deficit and inflation hawks around Europe (not least in Germany), industrial relations are bound to be suffering in the EU and many national levels these days. See also the Eurozone "competitiveness pact".

Doha, special rels, jobless and inflation, Marx, Lenin and the liberals

1) When will EUrope finally get it together? The (rest of the) world is turning!

2) Many politicians in many countries like to loosely use terms such as national interest and sovereignty, are they catchphrases of the political era?

3) IATA has cut its airline profits forecast due to high oil costs (BBC News)

4) Policy: What many forget (or choose to forget) is that competition law is the cornerstone of genuine "free market"

Most ideologies stand on good ideas. It is their application/practice that makes the difference.

Marxism was meant for industrially mature countries eg UK, Germany etc, instead it was practiced in agri/rural Russia et al & China!

IMO Marxism is an irrelevant in 2011 as Rand-ism. And a centrist mix of capitalism & social democracy seems best in practice.

On the other hand, it can IMO be said that China is extracting communism's revenge on capitalism nowadays, via its capitalocommunist (Frankenstein-like) model and its 2001 WTO membership (a major US & European mistake).

American & European greed led to China's 2001 WTO membership that has backfired on the US & EU! Maintenant c'est trop tard pour eux

By the way: What do the liberals and the Leninists have in common, in iterms of ideology? Their distaste for private monopolies & cartels. But whereas liberals think that they can be avoided via competition, anti-monopoly and antitrust legislation, Leninists prefer the state ownership model, for monopolies and business in general!

5) By the way, since I mentioned the WTO, according to BBC News:

"Doha Round: US presses China, India and Brazil"

It seems that the USTR is pushing the BRICs for more concessions on their part, in lower tariffs and better market access, for the ever lasting (since 2001) Doha Round of WTO trade talks to come,, at last, to a successful end. Let us be reminded that WTO rules based international trade is not tariff-free but that via GATT and since the mid 1990s its successor, the WTO, tariffs have been lowered considerably, globally, to to different degrees (less the developed the economy, the less the pressure to cut tariffs, generally speaking).

I should also note that as far as I know President Obama has not (yet?) been given by Congress the "fast track" powers that a Democrat-dominated Congress had given to GWB Jr. Fast track means that an WTO agreement among 170+ countries will then have to be either approved as is or rejected by the US Congress, ie there can be no proposals for amendments (which would render an agreement among 170+ virtually impossible).

Reminds one of the Sovereignty Bill that Cameron recently passed in the UK! If an EU regulation or directive that has been deliberated by the Council of the EU and the European Parliament (in co-decision) can then be amended by the UK Parliament or any national Parliament, then does that render EU lawmaking a joke or not?

6) On that special ... relationship:

Back on Monday 28/2, The Telegraph's Gardiner wrote: "The King’s Speech scores an Oscar triumph for the Special Relationship"

My comments:

1) The ceremony gave awards did not crown anyone!

2) Does the EU need its own Hollywood (movie industry cluster) or not? And where (location)? Of course a Euro-Hollywood cluster should be a private sector matter, not a "Brussels" one (matter/funding)
3) A film's language (21+ languages in the EU) seems to be key factor in intra-EU & international success (esp US box office results)
4) The trans-national, even intra-EU view seems lacking, eg in topics & scripts. What is needed are more multi-lingual/national (intra-EUropean) stories & themes to attract EU-wide audiences. IMO "EU funds" should go to "multi/cross-national/lingual" film productions (ie from many EU states)

5) Sport is not affected significantly by languages. But music & film (& TV series) are highly dependent on language (in how many countries do foreign language films and TV programs play in VO btw?)

6) There is a special UK-US relationship but it is between Hollywood & royal film themes (Kings's Speech, The Queen, Elisabeth I & II, etc)

7) The European Commission's DG ECO & FIN's EU interim forecast: Recovery gaining grouund makes for interesting reading.

8) Eurostat: Inflation: Flash estimate for February 2011 for Eurozone: 2.4% vs 2.3% in Jan 2011

My comments:

1) Inflation hawks alert then?

2) IMO w/o a better Single Market. esp for SMEs and jobs, unemployment will remain high & structural in EU & Eurozone

9) Eurostat: Unemployment stats (seasonally-adjusted):

a) Eurozone unemployment 9.9% in January 2011 (vs 10.0% in Dec 2010 & 10.0% in Jan 2010)

b) EU27 unemployment 9.5% in January 2011 (vs 9.6% in Dec 2010 & 9.5% in Jan 2010

10) On a humorous note: Britain has no Euro vision! (see EU) That's why it cannot win the ESC either? Plus: Lots of "special relationships" (UK-US style) among the participating countries though! (sorry couldn't help the pun)

11) And finally, in case you missed it: According to Reuters, the head of the FDIC calls for big bank restructuring.

My comments:

1) While there was reportedly less pressure on Wall St firms et al at Davos (WEF) this year, the issue seems to remain hot in the public opinion domain

2) Seems that Hollywood did not buy into the "party line" either, it gave an Oscar to the telling Inside Job documentary! A huge global message!

thinking has to become more global, for jobs to remain local!

I wrote this post in my old blog 35 months ago (October 27, 2007). Read it and see to what extent it remains current. IMO, it's even more current and relevant today than in October 2007!

Who is thinking global?

America is not thinking global. That is the problem. What I mean is that the American people, in spite of the US's globalization power since after WWII, have not followed the global "thinking" of the US. Thus the US remained at heart, a "local" mentality based society and economy and these days, it shows.

It used to be Europeans and citizens of South American, Central American, African and Asian countries who complained about globalization!

Now it is the North Americans who are!! Sign of a new phase in globalization?
Food for thought for all!

I always thought that the anti-globalization movement would start where globalization started: USA and UK. Globalization and Anti-globalization: Both "Made in USA" (or "Made in Britain")!

How is that for "monopoly" (or at best duopoly in the world of marketable ideas!) But can a country make a living on selling ideas only (or mainly)? Or dreams (well, one did, for a long time and still does: The American Dream)! Remains to be seen!

Times are hard for you North Americans. I sympathise, but thinking has to become more global, for jobs to remain local!

Competitiveness. growth and employment in 2010

How many countries nowadays have a competitiveness model that is "working" and takes into account the global systemics? Are global systemics too complex and/or volatile for any country to develop a competitiveness, growth and employment model that works?

Is the present and future type of new jobs in the USA United States mostly low skill - low pay ones? In the EU? Can any model avert that? IMO, yes.

The Local, National, Regional, Global confusion! (systemics)

a) Local (a2) for US, Germany, etc: state) b) National c) Regional d) Global (or WTO - 153 countries?)

Which is the above is the so called Optimal level for an individual or a household to "operate on" in the following types of "activities"?

1) Buy 2) Work (including seek work) 3) Be aware (via news etc) and Think 4) Invest/Save 5) Feel 6) Study 7) take Vacations 8) Date 9) Live (the "experience" of life in general)?

Posted via web from nickpthinking

Eurostat releases EU unemployment stats for February

According to the Eurostat (March 31)

The Eurozone's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 10.0% in February 2010, compared with 9.9% in January 2010 and 8.8% in February 2009. This is the highest rate since August 1998 and for the EU27 since the start of the series in January 2000.

The EU unemployment rate was 9.6% in February 2010, compared with 9.5% in January 2010 and 8.3% in February 2009. This is the highest rate for the EU since the start of the series in January 2000.


Eurostat estimates that 23.019 million men and women in the EU27, of whom 15.749 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in February 2010. Compared with January 2010, the number of persons unemployed increased by 131 000 in the EU27 and by 61 000 in the euro area. Compared with February 2009, unemployment went up by 3.139 million in the EU27 and by 1.844 million in the euro area.

Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in the Netherlands (4.0%) and Austria (5.0%), and the highest rates in Latvia (21.7%) and Spain (19.0%).

Compared with a year ago, all Member States recorded an increase in their unemployment rate.

The smallest increases were observed in Luxembourg (5.4% to 5.5%), Germany (7.3% to 7.5%), and Belgium (7.7% to 8.0%). The highest increases were registered in Latvia (13.2% to 21.7%), Estonia (7.6% to 15.5% between the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009) and Lithuania (8.1% to 15.8% between the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009).

In February 2010, the youth unemployment rate (under-25s) was 20.0% in the euro area and 20.6% in the EU27. In February 2009 it was 18.4% in both zones. The lowest rate was observed in the Netherlands (7.3%), and the highest rates in Latvia (41.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009) and Spain (40.7%).

In the USA, the unemployment rate was 9.7% in February 2010. In Japan it was 4.9% in January 2010.

policy - philosophy: Are some jobs more/less worth saving, protecting or promoting ..

than others? If so, is the "value" or "ranking" based on their nationality (of the jobs), on their skill level and/or their wage level, on their friendliness to the environment, on ethical standards, on labour standards, on their positive and negative externalities (effects) on the economy, the rest of the jobs marker, etc?

Complicated and tough questions for complicated and tough times.

Posted via web from nickpthinking

Were/are NYC and London over-depending on the financial services industry ...

.. for economic activity and for jobs?

Posted via web from nickpthinking

on the "X jobs for X nationals only" type of slogan

Do jobs have a "nationality"?
Are the rights of a person to employment a function of his/her nationality - national birth right?

The future of "work"

By 2050, will most work be done by freelancers?

It is the industrial revolution that turned artisans & other free lancers into employees

ILO says global unemployed reached 212 million in 2009

According to the ILO's (International Labor Organization) Global Employment Trends report, the total number jobless people worldwide reached 212 million in 2009, up 34 million compared to the 2007 eve of the global crisis.

US economy lost 85,000 jobs in December

Accoeding to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Jan. 8):

Summary:

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%

Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.


Household Survey Data:

In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.7 million, and the unemployment rate was 5.0%.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from
-111,000 to -127,000, and the change for November was revised from -11,000 to
+4,000.


Unemployment rates for the major worker groups:
adult men (10.2 percent), adult women (8.2 percent), teenagers (27.1 percent), whites (9.0 percent), blacks (16.2 percent), and Hispanics (12.9 percent), showed little change in December. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up, reaching 6.1 million. In December, 4 in 10 unemployed workers were jobless for 27 weeks or longer.

The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 64.6 percent in December. The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged at 9.2 million in December and has been relatively flat since March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, an increase of 578,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 929,000 discouraged workers in December, up from 642,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.


Establishment Survey Data:

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down in December (-85,000).

Job losses continued in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary
help services and health care continued to add jobs.

During 2009, monthly job losses moderated substantially. Employment losses in the first quarter of 2009 averaged 691,000 per month, compared with an average loss of 69,000 per month in the fourth quarter.

Construction employment declined by 53,000 in December, with job losses throughout the industry. Employment in construction has fallen by 1.6 million since the recession began.

In December, employment in manufacturing decreased by 27,000. The average
monthly decline for the last 6 months of 2009 (-41,000) was much lower than the average monthly decline for the first half of the year (-171,000). Since the recession began, manufacturing employment has fallen by 2.1 million; three-fourths of this drop occurred in the durable goods component (-1.6 million).

Wholesale trade employment declined by 18,000 in December, with the majority of
the decline occurring among durable goods wholesalers.

Employment in retail trade was little changed over the month, although general merchandise stores lost 15,000 jobs.

Temporary help services added 47,000 jobs in December. Since reaching a low point in July, temporary help services employment has risen by 166,000.

Health care employment continued to increase in December (22,000), with notable gains in offices of physicians (9,000) and home health care services (8,000). The health care industry has added 631,000 jobs since the recession began.

Pay:
In December, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.2 hours. The manufacturing work-week, at 40.4 hours, and factory overtime, at 3.4 hours, were unchanged over the month. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.0 hour.

In December, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.80. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent.


The BLS states that the Employment Situation for January is scheduled to be released on Friday, February 5, 2010, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).


Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data

At the end of each calendar year, BLS routinely updates the seasonal adjustment factors for the labor force series derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), or household survey. As a result of this process, seasonally adjusted data for January 2005 through November 2009 were subject to revision.

The full BLS release

November unemployment rates up in EU and Eurozone!

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.(Jan. 8):

The Eurozone seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate3 was 10.0% in November 2009, compared with 9.9% in October 2009.
It was 8.0% in November 2008.

In the EU as a whole (27 member states) the unemployment rate was 9.5% in November 2009, compared with 9.4% in October 2009.
It was 7.5% in November 2008.

For the Eurozone this is the highest rate since August 1998 and for the EU since the start of the series (January 2000).

Eurostat notes that in November 2009, the unemployment rate was 10.0% in the USA and 5.2% in Japan.


Eurostat estimates that 22,899,000 men and women in the EU27, of whom 15,712,000 were in the Eurozone, were unemployed in November 2009.

Compared with October 2009, the number of persons unemployed increased by 185 000 in the EU and by 102 000 in the Eurozone.

Compared with November 2008, unemployment went up by 4.978 million in the EU27 and by 3.041 million in the euro area.


Member States:

The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in the Netherlands (3.9%) and Austria (5.5%), and the highest rates in Latvia (22.3%) and Spain (19.4%).

Compared with a year ago, all Member States recorded an increase in their unemployment rate.

The smallest increases were observed in Germany (7.1% to 7.6%), Luxemburg (5.2% to 6.0%) and Malta (6.2% to 7.0%).

The highest increases were registered in Latvia (10.2% to 22.3%), Estonia (6.5% to 15.2% between the third quarters of 2008 and 2009) and Lithuania (6.4% to 14.6% between the third quarters of 2008 and 2009).


Between November 2008 and November 2009, the unemployment rate for males rose from 7.5% to 9.9% in the Eurozone and from 7.2% to 9.7% in the EU. The female unemployment rate increased from 8.6% to 10.0% in the Eurozone and from 7.8% to 9.2% in the EU.

In November 2009, the youth unemployment rate (under-25s) was 21.0% in the Eurozone and 21.4% in the EU. In November 2008 it was 16.6% in both zones.
The lowest rate was observed in the Netherlands (7.5%), and the highest rates in Spain (43.8%) and Latvia (36.3% in the third quarter of 2009).

More

Part of the $636 billion military spending bill that the US Senate just approved are

Extended through February 28, 2010, of the following:

* Jobless benefits and health-insurance subsidies for the jobless

* Current reimbursement rates for doctors under the national Medicare health insurance program for the elderly, thus averting a 21% pay cut

* Loosening of regulations to encourage small business lending. so that The Small Business Administration will continue to waive or reduce its loan fees and back 90% of the loans it oversees

Plus:

* A law that allows satellite television providers to retransmit broadcast-TV signals


It took strong words by Dan Pfeiffer, White House Communications Director, posted a post titled "The Time for Political Games is Over" at The White House Blog. December 18, 2009 at 12:10 PM EST, to get the Senate moving on the military spending bill per se.