Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Cut wages or curb over-legislation?

With a fortress EU or Eurozone many wages will be pushed to converge to the EU/Eurozone lowest. Without a fortress EU or Eurozone, to the global lowest.

A way the PIIGS can gain some competitiveness is via radical curbing of over-legislation ("polynomia"), which can improve productivity.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Economic immigration in the era of WTO free trade

Economic immigration should be at least as free as WTO trade (among WTO members).

Another option is for economic immigration terms to be included in bilateral trade/economic agreements

Sunday, July 15, 2012

One way for the EU to move forward is ...

The main mistake of Maastricht Treaty was using EMU as step towards Political Union whereas full Political Union was/is actually a prerequisite for EMU (aka the Euro).

So how does one repair the mistakes of the Treaty of Maastricht? 

Well, not Merkel's (bull in a china shop) way, that's for sure!

I disagree with Westerwelle et al. The EU needs a new Treaty ASAP (amend EMU, steps towards political union, etc).

To avoid a UK veto to such move, the UK (and others?) could be offered the opportunity to leave the EU as the majority seems to want in Britain, but with a "good" (for the UK) special relationship of UK-EU as part of the "deal".

Just thinkin!

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Ancient Greek lessons for 2012 Europe

What would the history of the world be like if the Greek city-states had formed a "united states" type of entity? Lessons for 2012 Europe.

The row over the uniforms and the WTO factor

My comment re "Made-in-China US Olympic uniforms spark political row" (Reuters):

China joined the WTO in December 2001. Is it time the US considers leaving the WTO? 

The EU? 

A departure of the US (and the EU?) from the WTO would not mean no trade. It would mean reliance on bilateral rather than the multilateral (ie WTO) agreements re the "rules" of trade (and possibly other economic issues and, why not, economic immigration). 

From the systemics Eurozone perspective

My comments on "Deutsche Maschinenbauer für Rauswurf Griechenlands aus dem Euro" in Deutsche Mittelstands Nachrichten :

If 1.8% of the Eurozone economy (Greece) creates structural instability, what does that say re the whole structure (of the Eurozone)?

Would the Eurozone be better off (systemically) w/o

a) Greece
b) the PIIGS or
c) the Euro or
d) Germany?

If the Euro had remained within a 1.0 and 1.2 USD range in the last 10 years, ...

If the Euro had remained within a 1.0 and 1.2 USD range in the last 10 years, what would the situation in the Eurozone today be?
(food for thought, contact me to discuss)

PS. It was supposed to be a Euro not a EuroDM (see eg inflation policy)

50+ yrs since the EEC and ...

50+ yrs since the EEC and a real "common mkt" for goods, services, jobs still not achieved!

Thursday, July 12, 2012

If the whole of the Eurozone adopted the German manufacturing model, ...

If the whole of the Eurozone adopted the German manufacturing model, what would that do to the world price of quality manufactured goods?

Monday, July 2, 2012

And the winner of last week's EUCO is ....

I have been silent (in terms of blog posts, not in terms of tweets) for the last 2+ weeks, watching developments in the EU and the Eurozone, observing, thinking, pondering, on the road to last Thursday's and Friday's session of the European Council (EUCO).

Those included ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings, comments from many of the capitals of the member states of the EU and the Eurozone (btw CDU MPs do need to learn how to make much more proper comments re other member states etc), the Rome meeting of Merkel, Rajoy, Hollande and Monti, the football externalities of EU and Eurozone affairs etc.

Some claim Europe won, because Merkel bowed (they think) to pressure from Italy and Spain (Hollande adopted a middle ground approach for which I hear that he was criticised at home (France, see also the drop in his approval ratings). She is said to have been criticised at home for giving up too much at the EUCO. She passed the Fiscal Compact in the first vote but CDU and FDP MPs broke ranks. And the ESM vote.

Some even claim that she "won" at the EUCO.

Some claim that "Europe" won, because Merkel bowed to other leaders' views "for once", and the decisions are a step forward for Europe.

In my opinion, Spain and Italy may have won, but maybe not as convincingly as it appears. Merkel did back a bit, but that is compared to her initial negotiating stance.

So, I insist. The last EUCO may have been a victory for Spain+Italy but not for the whole EU or the anti-Merkel/anti-austerity camp as a whole.

For Europe (EU), the gain was better than nothing but maybe too little compared to the task, late if not too late. A leap forward or sideways maybe be necessary soon. How soon? In EU years, not soon enough.

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