Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Friday, September 23, 2011
The recipe for growth and jobs
If politicians, governments and policy makers want growth and jobs then they must reduce the quantity and improve the quality of legislation, new and existing; so simple and yet so hard to do.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Eurozone systemics: GIIPSB 44% of pop 39% of GDP!
Recent ECB Pres & some BoD members' comments re rate hike potential raise IMO the issue of what kind of economic governance the EA17 need & by whom!
Country ... % pop .... % GDP (1) ...... Q4 growth (2) .. Inflation (3)
Eg. see "ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo: April rate hike possible" and note the argumentation:
"... Asked about the impact of a rate hike for Spain, whose economy is recovering at a slower pace than others in the euro zone, Gonzalez-Paramo said the ECB must think about the euro zone as a whole rather than individual countries. ..."
The Eurozone as a whole? This prompted me to table some insightful Eurozone statistics & systemics.
Today, I present the first part, that covers Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal as well as Belgium:
Country ... % pop .... % GDP (1) ...... Q4 growth (2) .. Inflation (3)
Italy ......... 18.21% .... 16.94% .......... +1.3% ............... 1.9%
Spain ...... 14.25% ..... 11.71% ......... +0.6% ............. 3.0%
Spain ...... 14.25% ..... 11.71% ......... +0.6% ............. 3.0%
Greece .... 3.41% ........ 2.64% ......... -6.6% ............... 4.9%
Portugal ..3.22% ....... 1.83% .......... +1.2% ............... 3.6%Ireland .... 1.37% ........ 1.82% ........... N/A ................. 0.2%
Sum
% of Eurozone population: 40.46%
% of Eurozone GDP: 34.84%
plus:
Belgium .... 3.25% .......... 3,76% ................. +1.8% ............... 3.7%
So BPIIGS
% of Eurozone population: 43.71%
% of Eurozone GDP: 38.60%
So PIIGS + BEL: 43.71% of the Eurozone population, 38.6% of nominal 2009 GDP! Quite larger than most would expect or think off hand!
Thus the strategic policy question: Do economic conditions in Spain + Portugal + Italy + Greece + Ireland + Belgium (6 Euro members, 43.71% of the Eurozone population and 38.6% of Eurozone's nominal 2009 GDP) justify Euro rate hike "thoughts" recently expressed by some central bankers in the EZ?
3 of the PIIGS plus Belgium have a January inflation rate above the 2% ECB target: Greece 4.9%, Belgium 3.7%, Portugal 3.6% and Spain 3%. The Greek rate that comes in spite a 6.6% reduction in nominal GDP in Q4 of 2010, is probably driven by new taxes (raises in VAT, etc) part of its budget consolidation effort.
Tomorrow: The full picture of the Eurozone 17 and more insightful data and syllogisms!
Footnotes
(1) Nominal GDP (2009), Source World Bank
(2) Q4 2010 GDP compared to Q4 GDP 2009. Source: Eurostat. Estonia and NL based on not seasonally adjusted data
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Why a 2% inflation target for the Eurozone and other myths & realities!
1) With February Eurozone inflation at 2.4% (Eurostat flash estimate & 2.3% in Jan 2011), above the traditional 2% fixed (ie permanent) target of central banks, the potential for a rise in the ECB interest rate in April exists (with many side-effects for EZ economies & firms).
But is a fixed inflation target the best policy?
a) See "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy", by Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro, Feb. 12., 2010.
b) What really bothers me about all that can be described in the following (part of which I mentioned before recently):
How many policy makers at the EU and the 27 national levels really care about what happens to the micros & SMEs? Especially, the Eurozone ones?
If the EU or the Eurozone has a higher propensity than the UK & US for inflation then consider that maybe that is because of its incomplete single market & union! Then rather than monetary policy, the solution, albeit not of immediate application should be more focused towards making the single market more real and in deciding to move to political union (at EU or EZ level)!
But who has the "nerve" to propose that and tear down many myths?
So why this monolithic fear/phobia of inflation? (1A) should shed some light into that!
Note that for a long time now the ECB rate is 1%, the UK 0.5%, the US 0.0-0.25%! To my MBA and policy mind that means that the Eurozone needs (?) to maintain a higher interest rate than the US and the UK in order to be in equilibrium. Or is it something else? Eg the result of economic dogma? Who's dogma?
I would urge policy makers in Brussels and acroos the Eurozone and the rest of the EU to consider the effect on Eurzone firms' ability to a) export b) defend their markets since the Euro will rise vs USD, Yuan, Pound etc. And the effect on jobs.
PLus: If the ECB interest rate goes up next time (because of what I dare call "inflation-phobia" by some) what will be the effect on financing cost & access to funding of SMEs & of the GIIPS?
Who realises that the EU;s micros & SMEs (and ppl) need EU-wide single laws in everything for the EU to work and provide jobs? I do think that a key part of the EU and EZ problems in insuffcient integration. Another reason why sovereignty IMO can only be achieved at EU level instead of UK, French, German, etc levels. The other has to do with systemics and dynamics outside the EU (see developments in China, USA, SE Asia, Russia, South America, Africa, etc).
Finally, for now, there is a way for the German taxpayer (some like to call Germany the "paymaster of Europe", yikes) to bear less burden in the financing of the EU - Eurozone:
A US-style EU or Eurozone "federal" income tax!
Then instead of Germany or the German taxpayer being the "paymaster" of the EU/EZ, the high income earner in the EU or EZ will! Only fair! Right> So, who is in favor of an EU/EZ federal income tax?
A Catch 22? A Gordian Cord? Who will be/prove Europe's Alexander the Great?
2) German-French Competitiveness Pact: EPP & Socialist summits in Helsinki and Athens
It is Saturday morning and news from Helsinki from Friday's intra-EPP discussion (see Bloomberg's "Merkel Rebuffs Bid by Ireland's Kenny to Cut EU Bailout Costs") show that A. Merkel has the choice: a) Win next fed election or b) Make European history but of course there exists the possibility A Merkel, via her tactics, will lose next German fed election as well as "destroy" EUrope!
3) More on the inflation issue and the apparent willingness of some EZ central bankers to raise interest rates. All we know re February is a flash inflation estimate from Eurostat that puts Eurozone inflation at 2.4%. How about January? Back on Feb 28, Eurostat had published the inflation stats for January 2011. These do not show a significant impact of staple foods.
Read for yourselves:
Euro area annual inflation up to 2.3% , EU stable at 2.7%
Euro area annual inflation was 2.3% in January 2011, up from 2.2% in December 2010. A year earlier the rate was 0.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.7% in January 2011.
EU annual inflation was 2.7% in January 2011, unchanged compared to December 2010. A year earlier the rate was 1.7%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in January 2011.
Inflation in the EU Member States (Jan 2011)
In January 2011, the lowest annual rates were observed in Ireland (0.2%) and Sweden (1.4%), and the highest in Romania (7.0%), Estonia (5.1%) and Greece (4.9%). Compared with December 2010, annual inflation rose in fifteen and fell in twelve Member States.
The lowest 12-month averages up to January 2011 were registered in Ireland (-1.4%), Latvia (-0.7%) and Slovakia (1.0%) and the highest in Romania (6.2%), Greece (4.9%) and Hungary (4.5%).
Euro area annual inflation was 2.3% in January 2011, up from 2.2% in December 2010. A year earlier the rate was 0.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.7% in January 2011.
EU annual inflation was 2.7% in January 2011, unchanged compared to December 2010. A year earlier the rate was 1.7%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in January 2011.
Inflation in the EU Member States (Jan 2011)
In January 2011, the lowest annual rates were observed in Ireland (0.2%) and Sweden (1.4%), and the highest in Romania (7.0%), Estonia (5.1%) and Greece (4.9%). Compared with December 2010, annual inflation rose in fifteen and fell in twelve Member States.
The lowest 12-month averages up to January 2011 were registered in Ireland (-1.4%), Latvia (-0.7%) and Slovakia (1.0%) and the highest in Romania (6.2%), Greece (4.9%) and Hungary (4.5%).
Eurozone
The main components with the highest annual rates in January 2011 were transport (5.1%), housing (4.5%) and alcohol & tobacco (3.7%), while the lowest annual rates were observed for clothing (-0.6%), communications (-0.2%) and recreation & culture (0.1%). Concerning the detailed sub-indices, fuels for transport (+0.58 percentage points), heating oil (+0.19) and electricity (+0.11) had the largest upward impacts on the headline rate, while garments (-0.14), telecommunications (-0.08) and rents (-0.07) had the biggest downward impacts.
The main components with the highest monthly rates were housing (1.2%), transport (1.0%) and health (0.6%), while the lowest were clothing (-13.3%), recreation & culture (-2.1%), household equipment and hotels & restaurants (-0.5% each). In particular, fuels for transport (+0.18 percentage points), electricity (+0.12) and restaurants & cafés (+0.07) had the largest upward impacts, while garments (-0.71), package holidays and footwear (-0.16 each) had the biggest downward impacts.
A BBC News - Q&A (Feb 3): "Why food prices and fuel costs are going up" is insightful!
Note: According to the BBC "the FAO says speculators who trade commodities on the financial markets are not to blame for the huge rise in prices, but they have made matters worse".
5) Some more recent Eurozone and EU stats (from Eurostat), to get a better picture on dynamics & systemics:
5a) On March 3, Eurostat, published EU and Eurozone volume of retail trade stats (1st estimates):
In January 2011, compared with December 2010, the volume of retail trade was +0.4% in the Eurozone and +0.6% in the EU27
In December 2010, retail trade fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
In January 2011, compared with January 2010, the retail sales index increased by 0.7% in the Eurozone and 1.9% in the EU27.
In January 2011, compared with January 2010, the retail sales index increased by 0.7% in the Eurozone and 1.9% in the EU27.
Food, Drinks, Tobacco:
In January 2011, compared with December 2010, “Food, drinks and tobacco” gained 0.1% in the euro area, but fell by 0.3% in the EU27.
In January 2011, compared with January 2010, “Food, drinks and tobacco” fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU27.
5b) One day before, on March 2, Eurostat had published industrial producer price stats
In January 2011 compared with December 2010, the industrial producer price index rose by 1.5% in the Eurozone and by 1.4% in the EU27
In December 2010, prices increased by 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.
In January 2011 compared with January 2010, industrial producer prices gained 6.1% in the Eurozone and 6.5% in the EU27. Why?
Monthly changes
In January 2011, compared with the previous month, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased by 0.8% in both the Eurozone and the EU27.
In January 2011 compared with January 2010, industrial producer prices gained 6.1% in the Eurozone and 6.5% in the EU27. Why?
Monthly changes
In January 2011, compared with the previous month, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased by 0.8% in both the Eurozone and the EU27.
Prices in the energy sector rose by 3.2% and 2.5% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total index were recorded in Spain (+2.4%), the Netherlands (+2.1%), Belgium and Portugal (both +1.9%). Decreases were observed in Sweden (-1.3%), Denmark (-0.5%) and Cyprus (-0.1%).
Annual changes
In January 2011 compared with January 2010, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased by 3.9% in the Eurozone and by 4.0% in the EU27. Prices in the energy sector gained 12.5% and 12.7% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total index were observed in Bulgaria (+11.1%), Lithuania and the Netherlands (both +10.3%), and the smallest in Malta (+0.8%), Slovakia (+1.9%) and Sweden (+2.5%).
Among the Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total index were recorded in Spain (+2.4%), the Netherlands (+2.1%), Belgium and Portugal (both +1.9%). Decreases were observed in Sweden (-1.3%), Denmark (-0.5%) and Cyprus (-0.1%).
Annual changes
In January 2011 compared with January 2010, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased by 3.9% in the Eurozone and by 4.0% in the EU27. Prices in the energy sector gained 12.5% and 12.7% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total index were observed in Bulgaria (+11.1%), Lithuania and the Netherlands (both +10.3%), and the smallest in Malta (+0.8%), Slovakia (+1.9%) and Sweden (+2.5%).
6) To what extent though is growth in some of the EU and Eurozone member states is pushing prices up?
+0.3% from Q3 2010 and +2.0% from Q3 of 2009
Let's see what the Q4 2010 GDP compared to Q4 GDP 2009 stats look like, ie how fast Eurozone and other economies are growing (source Eurostat data):
Eurozone 16 (whole) and Eurozone 17 (whole): both 2.0%
EU27 as a whole: 2.1%
Belgium 1.8%
Germany 4.0% (!)
Estonia 6.6%
Ireland N/A
Greece -6.6%
Spain 0.6%
France 1.5%
Italy 1.3%
Cyprus 2.2%
Lux N/A
Malta N/A
NL 2.4%
Austria 2.7%
Portugal 1.2%
Slovenia 1.9%
Slovakia 3.4%
Finland 5.0%
Estonia and NL based on not seasonally adjusted data
Thus only Estonia, Germany, Finland and Slovakia are growing (Q4 2010) at rates that are above 3%, a threshold many claim is needed for employment creation.
So is the Eurozone overheating with a 2.1% GDP growth rate (Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009)? To the extent that a 2.3% inflation in January and a flash estimate of 2.4% in February (against a traditional and somewhat "dogmatic" target of 2.0%) aided by global issues in the prices of some staple foods and oil justifies serious consideration by "some" central bankers in the Eurozone to raise the interest rate in the near future?
8) On Monday 7 March at 12.00 CET, the European Commission will issue a decision and press release concerning the historical aviation emissions
9) Antitrust: The European Commission closes probe into Hollywood studios after they change terms of contracts for digitisation of European cinemas.
10) Scottish parliament elections May 5. According to the Guardian, the LibDems are trailing very badly in the polls, as low as 8%!
11) Finally: BBC News reports that China says it will boost its defence budget in 2011.
11) Finally: BBC News reports that China says it will boost its defence budget in 2011.
Let me remind you that according to the CIA World Factbook (estimate) in 2006 China tied with Greece at No21 in military spending/capita, way above USA & all EU except Greece!
PS. So, what it is gonna be: pact or reform? EU27 or Eurozone17+? Schengen style or not?
Friday, July 23, 2010
Is the "party" over for the developed economies?
Can world GDP grow enough to accommodate deserved growth in the rest of the world while maintaining even current GDP levels in the G7? One could be tempted to predict that the "party" is over for the developed economies and now it's others' turn to prosper! Eg what effect will a 50% rise in GDP/capita of 2.5 bn ppl (China & India) in the near future have on the GDP/capita in US and EU?
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
EU and Eurozone GDP in Q4 of 2009 (Eurostat 2nd estimate)
According to Eurostat's second estimate for Q4 of 2009, released today
Eurozone: Zero (0%) GDP growth in Q4 of 2009 (+0.1% in 1st estimate) compared to Q3 of 2009.
EU: GDP growth in Q4 of 2009 +0.1% (same as in 1st estimate) compared to Q3, -2.3% compared to Q4 2008
Compared to Q4 of 2008, only Poland (+2.8%) and Lux (+1.4%) saw positive #GDP change in Q4 of 2009 in the EU
Eurozone: Zero (0%) GDP growth in Q4 of 2009 (+0.1% in 1st estimate) compared to Q3 of 2009.
EU: GDP growth in Q4 of 2009 +0.1% (same as in 1st estimate) compared to Q3, -2.3% compared to Q4 2008
Compared to Q4 of 2008, only Poland (+2.8%) and Lux (+1.4%) saw positive #GDP change in Q4 of 2009 in the EU
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Q4 09 GDP data for EU, Eurozone, Germany, etc
According to Flash estimates for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2009 released by Eurostat on February 12, GDP in the EU grew by 0.1%, the same in the Eurozone (+0.1%) compared to the previous quarter. That means a slowding down of the growth rates compared in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2009, when rates were +0.3% in the EU and +0.4% in the Eurozone.
Compared to the Q4 of 2008, Q4 09 GDP in the Eurozone was -2.1% and in the EU -2.3%, which is an improvement over Q3 0f 09.
So while EU and its Eurozone grew 0.1%, the US economy grew 1.4% compared with the previous quarter.
Over the whole year in 2009, Eurozone GDP fell by 4.0% and EU GDP fell by 4.1%.
According to the same Eurostat release in the Q4 compared to Q3 the GDP rate was:
Germany 0%
France +0.6%
UK 0.1%
Spain -0.1%
Italy -0.2%
Compared to Q4 of 2008:
Germany -2.4%
UK -3.2%
France -0.3%
Italy -2.8%
Spain -3.1%
Compared to the Q4 of 2008, Q4 09 GDP in the Eurozone was -2.1% and in the EU -2.3%, which is an improvement over Q3 0f 09.
So while EU and its Eurozone grew 0.1%, the US economy grew 1.4% compared with the previous quarter.
Over the whole year in 2009, Eurozone GDP fell by 4.0% and EU GDP fell by 4.1%.
According to the same Eurostat release in the Q4 compared to Q3 the GDP rate was:
Germany 0%
France +0.6%
UK 0.1%
Spain -0.1%
Italy -0.2%
Compared to Q4 of 2008:
Germany -2.4%
UK -3.2%
France -0.3%
Italy -2.8%
Spain -3.1%
Friday, January 29, 2010
US Q4 2009 GDP rose a lot but ....
According to the "advance" estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Real gross domestic product, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States, increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter),
In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
But note that:
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2010.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.
Motor vehicle output added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.
Real exports of goods and services increased 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.5 percent, compared with an increase of 21.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent
in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the third. National defense decreased 3.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.4 percent. Non-defense increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
2009 GDP
Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.
full text
Real gross domestic product, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States, increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter),
In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
But note that:
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2010.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.
Motor vehicle output added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.
Real exports of goods and services increased 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.5 percent, compared with an increase of 21.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent
in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the third. National defense decreased 3.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.4 percent. Non-defense increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
2009 GDP
Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.
full text
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
IMF ups its expectation for 2010 global growth to +4%
In its new edition of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) WEO: expected a +4% increase in the 2010 world output expected.
This figure is up 0.75 from IMF's October 2009 World Economic Outlook expectation re 2010.
This figure is up 0.75 from IMF's October 2009 World Economic Outlook expectation re 2010.
UK out of recession in Q4 2009 but just barely (+0.1%)
According to preliminary data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics today:
The chained volume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The increase in output was due mainly to increases in distribution, hotels and restaurants and government and other services.
Contributions to growth
Distribution, hotels and restaurants was the largest contributor to the positive growth this quarter. Government and other services and total production also had significant contributions to the increase. This was partially offset by a small decrease in business
services and finance. Construction and transport, storage and communication were flat over the quarter.
Index of Production
The production industries increased 0.1 per cent compared with a decrease of 0.9 per cent in the
previous quarter. Manufacturing increased 0.4 per cent. Mining and quarrying increased 1.0 per cent and Electricity, gas and water supply decreased 3.3 per cent. The production industries decreased 6.3 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Construction
Construction growth was flat compared with an increase of 1.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
Construction decreased 4.9 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
Distribution, hotels and restaurants increased 0.4 per cent compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. Motor trades and retail made the largest contribution to the increase. Distribution, hotels and restaurants decreased 0.5 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Transport, storage and communication
Transport, storage and communication growth was flat compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from post and telecommunications. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from transport support. Transport, storage and communication decreased 4.1 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Business services and finance
Business services and finance growth was flat compared with a decrease of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from real estate. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from banking. Business services and finance decreased 4.8 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4.
Government and other services
Government and other services increased 0.2 per cent, compared with a decrease of 0.2 in Q3 2009. Health made the largest contribution to the increase. Government and other services decreased 0.7 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
The ONS release today includes this Background Note (excerpt):
Release policy
1. This release includes information available up to 20 January 2010.
Estimates of UK output, income and expenditure will be published on 26 February 2010.
A full set of quarterly national accounts will be published on 30 March 2010.
The preliminary estimate ofGDP for the first quarter of 2010 will be published on 23 April 2010.
2. Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. Tables 1 and 2 show summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. The result of the test is that the average revision is not statistically different from zero. The data used are consistent with that used in more detailed analysis that have been published in Economic Trends. The most recent article was published on the National Statistics website on
11 December 2006 and can be found at:
http://www/statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1694
The chained volume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The increase in output was due mainly to increases in distribution, hotels and restaurants and government and other services.
- Output of the service industries increased 0.1 per cent.
- Output in the production industries increased 0.1 per cent.
- GDP decreased 3.2 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Contributions to growth
Distribution, hotels and restaurants was the largest contributor to the positive growth this quarter. Government and other services and total production also had significant contributions to the increase. This was partially offset by a small decrease in business
services and finance. Construction and transport, storage and communication were flat over the quarter.
Index of Production
The production industries increased 0.1 per cent compared with a decrease of 0.9 per cent in the
previous quarter. Manufacturing increased 0.4 per cent. Mining and quarrying increased 1.0 per cent and Electricity, gas and water supply decreased 3.3 per cent. The production industries decreased 6.3 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Construction
Construction growth was flat compared with an increase of 1.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
Construction decreased 4.9 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
Distribution, hotels and restaurants increased 0.4 per cent compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. Motor trades and retail made the largest contribution to the increase. Distribution, hotels and restaurants decreased 0.5 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Transport, storage and communication
Transport, storage and communication growth was flat compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from post and telecommunications. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from transport support. Transport, storage and communication decreased 4.1 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
Business services and finance
Business services and finance growth was flat compared with a decrease of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from real estate. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from banking. Business services and finance decreased 4.8 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4.
Government and other services
Government and other services increased 0.2 per cent, compared with a decrease of 0.2 in Q3 2009. Health made the largest contribution to the increase. Government and other services decreased 0.7 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .
The ONS release today includes this Background Note (excerpt):
Release policy
1. This release includes information available up to 20 January 2010.
Estimates of UK output, income and expenditure will be published on 26 February 2010.
A full set of quarterly national accounts will be published on 30 March 2010.
The preliminary estimate ofGDP for the first quarter of 2010 will be published on 23 April 2010.
2. Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. Tables 1 and 2 show summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. The result of the test is that the average revision is not statistically different from zero. The data used are consistent with that used in more detailed analysis that have been published in Economic Trends. The most recent article was published on the National Statistics website on
11 December 2006 and can be found at:
http://www/statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1694
Friday, January 8, 2010
Q3 GDP up in the EU and its Eurozone
Eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% and EU GDP by 0.3% during the third quarter (Q3) of 2009, compared with the previous quarter (Q2/2009), according to second estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
In the second quarter of 2009, growth rates were -0.1% in the Eurozone and -0.3% in the EU.
In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year (Q3/2008), seasonally adjusted GDP declined in the third quarter of 2009 by 4.0% in the Eurozone and by 4.3% in the EU27, after -4.8% and -5.0% respectively in the previous quarter.
In the third quarter of 2009, among Member States for which seasonally adjusted GDP data are available, Lithuania (6.1%) recorded the highest growth rate compared with the previous quarter, followed by Luxembourg (4.2%) and Slovakia (1.6%).
Components of GDP:
In the third quarter of 2009:
Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the Eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU (after +0.1% and -0.2% respectively in the previous quarter).
Investments fell by 0.8% in the Eurozone and by 0.6% in the EU (after -1.6% and -2.5% in Q2).
Exports increased by 3.1% in the Eurozone and by 2.7% in the EU (after -1.2% and -1.4%). Imports increased by 3.0% in the Eurozone and by 2.9% in the EU (after -2.8% and -2.9%).
Comparisons with the US and Japan:
Among the main partners of the EU, GDP increased by 0.6% in the US in the third quarter of 2009 (-0.2% in the previous quarter). In Japan GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2009 (+0.7% in the previous quarter).
Compared with the third quarter of 2008, GDP declined by 2.6% in the US (-3.8% in the previous quarter) and decreased by 4.7% in Japan (-6.0% in the previous quarter)
In the second quarter of 2009, growth rates were -0.1% in the Eurozone and -0.3% in the EU.
In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year (Q3/2008), seasonally adjusted GDP declined in the third quarter of 2009 by 4.0% in the Eurozone and by 4.3% in the EU27, after -4.8% and -5.0% respectively in the previous quarter.
In the third quarter of 2009, among Member States for which seasonally adjusted GDP data are available, Lithuania (6.1%) recorded the highest growth rate compared with the previous quarter, followed by Luxembourg (4.2%) and Slovakia (1.6%).
Components of GDP:
In the third quarter of 2009:
Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the Eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU (after +0.1% and -0.2% respectively in the previous quarter).
Investments fell by 0.8% in the Eurozone and by 0.6% in the EU (after -1.6% and -2.5% in Q2).
Exports increased by 3.1% in the Eurozone and by 2.7% in the EU (after -1.2% and -1.4%). Imports increased by 3.0% in the Eurozone and by 2.9% in the EU (after -2.8% and -2.9%).
Comparisons with the US and Japan:
Among the main partners of the EU, GDP increased by 0.6% in the US in the third quarter of 2009 (-0.2% in the previous quarter). In Japan GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2009 (+0.7% in the previous quarter).
Compared with the third quarter of 2008, GDP declined by 2.6% in the US (-3.8% in the previous quarter) and decreased by 4.7% in Japan (-6.0% in the previous quarter)
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Q3 US growth rate revised downwards again, to 2.2%
Statistics is not by its nature a natural science, it tries to account with socio-economic behavior, at least in the case of Gross Domestic Product and related statistics (some economists, eg Stiglitz, even question the utility of GDP/GNP as a prosperity measure/index). Thus the statistics agencies that collect, calculate and publish GDP and related economic and social data (eg ONS in the UK, Eurostat in the EU, the agencies under the Dept of Commerce in the US, the Economics and Statistics Administration, and specifically the "Bureau of Economic Analysis" etc) usually do it in 3 steps: initial, advance or flash, plus 2 revisions.
It was only yesterday that the UK's ONS published its second revision of Q3 UK GDP. Initially estimated at -0.4% compared to Q2, then it was revised to -0.3% and yesterday to -0.2%, ie upwards.
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the second revision of the US Q3 GDP compared to Q2. From the initial 3.5%, and after a first revision down to 2.8%, this revision brings the Q3 GDP growth to 2.2%!
The press release states: "Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent."
It goes on to say that the "GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3)"
Note that Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
Real exports of goods and services increased 17.8% in the third quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 4.1% in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 21.3%, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7% in Q2.
Gross domestic purchases: Real gross domestic purchases - purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced - increased 3.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.3% in the second.
Gross national product: Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 3.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0% in the second.
GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter after decreasing $7.4 billion in the second; in
the third quarter, receipts increased $15.7 billion, and payments decreased $10.0 billion.
Revisions:
The "third" estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.6 percentage point, or $17.3 billion, lower than the second estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, and to personal consumption expenditures.
Advance Estimate to Second Estimate to Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP....................................................... 3.5 2.8 2.2
Current-dollar GDP..................................... 4.3 3.3 2.6
Gross domestic purchases price index...... 1.6 1.4 1.3
Note that the next release is scheduled for January 29, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (the "Advance Estimate") and that release dates in 2010 are:
Gross Domestic Product
2009: Q4 and 2009 annual 2010: I 2010: II 2010: III
Advance…… January 29 April 30 July 30 October 29
Second…….. February 26 May 27 August 27 November 23
Third………. March 26 June 25 September 30 December 22
It was only yesterday that the UK's ONS published its second revision of Q3 UK GDP. Initially estimated at -0.4% compared to Q2, then it was revised to -0.3% and yesterday to -0.2%, ie upwards.
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the second revision of the US Q3 GDP compared to Q2. From the initial 3.5%, and after a first revision down to 2.8%, this revision brings the Q3 GDP growth to 2.2%!
The press release states: "Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent."
It goes on to say that the "GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3)"
Note that Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
Real exports of goods and services increased 17.8% in the third quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 4.1% in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 21.3%, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7% in Q2.
Gross domestic purchases: Real gross domestic purchases - purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced - increased 3.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.3% in the second.
Gross national product: Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 3.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0% in the second.
GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter after decreasing $7.4 billion in the second; in
the third quarter, receipts increased $15.7 billion, and payments decreased $10.0 billion.
Revisions:
The "third" estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.6 percentage point, or $17.3 billion, lower than the second estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, and to personal consumption expenditures.
Advance Estimate to Second Estimate to Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP....................................................... 3.5 2.8 2.2
Current-dollar GDP..................................... 4.3 3.3 2.6
Gross domestic purchases price index...... 1.6 1.4 1.3
Note that the next release is scheduled for January 29, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (the "Advance Estimate") and that release dates in 2010 are:
Gross Domestic Product
2009: Q4 and 2009 annual 2010: I 2010: II 2010: III
Advance…… January 29 April 30 July 30 October 29
Second…….. February 26 May 27 August 27 November 23
Third………. March 26 June 25 September 30 December 22
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
UK Q3 2009 GDP revised upwards
According to the Office of National Statistics (December 22), the Gross Domestic Product for Q3 has been revised upwards to -0.2%.
The previous estimate was -0.3%, whereas the initial estimate had been -0.4%. In spite this improvement, which is due to better than previously measured growth in the construction sector (partly offset by downward revisions to production and services), this means that the UK economy remained in recession in Q3 after all. It has been in recession (negative GDP growth), since Q2 of 2008.
Q3 2009 GDP remains at -5.1% compared to Q3 2008.
According to the ONS, construction output rose by 1.9% over the quarter, revised up from a fall of 1.1% reported in the previous estimate.
Output of the production industries fell by 0.9% compared with a fall of 0.6% in the previous quarter, with output of mining, oil and gas falling by 5.7%. GVA excluding oil and gas extraction was flat over the quarter.
Output in the service industries fell by 0.2% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.8% in Q2.
Household expenditure growth rose 0.1%, although remains 3.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.
General government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.3% and is now 2.1% higher than the third quarter of 2008.
Gross fixed capital formation rose by 2.2% although it remains 13.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.
Inventories continued to be reduced, down £4.6 billion on the quarter.
The trade deficit in real terms rose to £7.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009. Exports of goods and services rose 0.8% while imports rose 1.5 per cent.
The GDP expenditure deflator rose by 2.1% compared with the third quarter of 2008, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter.
Compensation of employees at current prices fell by 0.1% and is now 1.0% below the level seen a year ago.
Total gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 2.7% and is now 2.7% lower than a year ago.
The previous estimate was -0.3%, whereas the initial estimate had been -0.4%. In spite this improvement, which is due to better than previously measured growth in the construction sector (partly offset by downward revisions to production and services), this means that the UK economy remained in recession in Q3 after all. It has been in recession (negative GDP growth), since Q2 of 2008.
Q3 2009 GDP remains at -5.1% compared to Q3 2008.
According to the ONS, construction output rose by 1.9% over the quarter, revised up from a fall of 1.1% reported in the previous estimate.
Output of the production industries fell by 0.9% compared with a fall of 0.6% in the previous quarter, with output of mining, oil and gas falling by 5.7%. GVA excluding oil and gas extraction was flat over the quarter.
Output in the service industries fell by 0.2% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.8% in Q2.
Household expenditure growth rose 0.1%, although remains 3.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.
General government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.3% and is now 2.1% higher than the third quarter of 2008.
Gross fixed capital formation rose by 2.2% although it remains 13.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.
Inventories continued to be reduced, down £4.6 billion on the quarter.
The trade deficit in real terms rose to £7.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009. Exports of goods and services rose 0.8% while imports rose 1.5 per cent.
The GDP expenditure deflator rose by 2.1% compared with the third quarter of 2008, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter.
Compensation of employees at current prices fell by 0.1% and is now 1.0% below the level seen a year ago.
Total gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 2.7% and is now 2.7% lower than a year ago.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Irish economy +0.3% in Q3 2009
Ireland's GDP (gross domestic product) +0.3% in Q3 compared to Q2 (but -7.4% compared to Q3 2008).
This means that the Irish economy, until recently considered a "tiger" due to its dynamism in recent years, is now technically out of recession.
This means that the Irish economy, until recently considered a "tiger" due to its dynamism in recent years, is now technically out of recession.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Q3 GDP in the Eurozone and the EU
According to first estimates released today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, in the third quarter (Q3) GDP increased by 0.4% in the Eurozone and by 0.3% in the EU when compared with the previous quarter. In Q2 of 2009, growth rates were -0.2% in the Eurozone and -0.3% in the EU (compared with Q1 2009).
When compared with Q3 of 2008, seasonally adjusted GDP declined by 4.1% in the Eurozone and by 4.3% in the EU (the figures were -4.8% for the Eurozone and -5.0% for the EU for Q2 2009 compared with Q2 2008).
Components of the Q3 2009 GDP
Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% in both the Eurozone and the EU27 (after 0.0% and -0.1% respectively in Q2 2009).
Investments fell by 0.4% in the Eurozone and by 0.5% in the EU (after -1.7% and -2.5%).
Exports increased by 2.9% in the Eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU (after -1.3% and -1.4%).
Imports increased by 2.6% in the Eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU (after -2.9% in both zones).
When compared with Q3 of 2008, seasonally adjusted GDP declined by 4.1% in the Eurozone and by 4.3% in the EU (the figures were -4.8% for the Eurozone and -5.0% for the EU for Q2 2009 compared with Q2 2008).
Components of the Q3 2009 GDP
Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% in both the Eurozone and the EU27 (after 0.0% and -0.1% respectively in Q2 2009).
Investments fell by 0.4% in the Eurozone and by 0.5% in the EU (after -1.7% and -2.5%).
Exports increased by 2.9% in the Eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU (after -1.3% and -1.4%).
Imports increased by 2.6% in the Eurozone and by 2.4% in the EU (after -2.9% in both zones).
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
UK Q3 GDP declined 0.3% (instead of 0.4%)
According to the latest ONS data (November 25), in Q3 of 2009 (July-September) the UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms fell by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, revised from a fall of 0.4 per% published in the initial estimates for Q3 last month. Growth was last positive in 2008 Q1 (0.6%).
(Meanwhile in the US, Q3 annualised GDP growth was also revised, yesterday, downwards, from 3.5% to 2.8% see http://npthinkingus.blogspot.com/2009/11/us-q3-gdp-28-instead-of-initial-35.html)
Compared with the same quarter (Q3) of 2008, GDP now shows a fall of 5.1% from a fall of 5.2% published last month.
Growth in the volume of output in the production industries in Q3 of 2009 has been revised down to show a fall of 0.8% from a fall of 0.7% published in October.
Manufacturing output was revised up to show a fall of 0.1% from a fall of 0.2%
published last month.
Growth in the volume of output in the service industries in quarter three of 2009 has been revised up to show a fall of 0.1%, from a fall of 0.2% published in October.
There were upward revisions to output of distribution and transport services since the preliminary release as a result of more complete survey returns.
A full set of quarterly national accounts for Q3 of 2009 will be published on 22
December 2009, while the preliminary estimate of GDP for Q4 of 2009 will be
published on 26 January 2010.
In more detail (source: ONS):
Production, Manufacturing, etc: The volume of output in the production industries fell by 0.8%, within which manufacturing fell by 0.1% (prelim estimate had been -0.2%). Gross value added excluding oil and gas fell by 0.2 per cent over the quarter.
Production output fell by 0.8 per cent in 2009 Q3, in comparison with the fall of 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter and is down 10.5 per cent compared with 2008 Q3.
Mining and quarrying output fell by 4.7 per cent, driven by a decline in oil and gas extraction. This compares with a decline of 0.6 per cent in 2009 Q2. This component contributed 0.1 per cent to the decline in GDP in the latest quarter.
Manufacturing output fell by 0.1 per cent in 2009 Q3. Substantial increases in production of motor vehicles were offset by continued declines in paper and publishing, and manufacturing of machinery and equipment.
Electricity, gas and water continued to decline with output falling by 0.8 per cent over the quarter.
Services: Output of the service industries decreased by 0.1% compared with the
decline of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
The output of the distribution, hotels and catering industries rose by 0.3 per cent over the quarter compared with a decline of 0.4 per cent in 2009 Q2. There was a recovery in motor trades which was supported by additional registrations as a result of the Government’s
car scrappage scheme. There was continued growth in retail trade, although activity in hotels and restaurants continued to decline.
The transport, storage and communication industries rose by 0.5 per cent, compared with a decline of 1.8 per cent in 2009 Q2. The rise was driven by a recovery in land and water transport, while air transport continued to show increasing activity.
The business services and finance industries declined by 0.3 per cent, compared with a fall of 0.7 per cent in 2009 Q2. While there was a continued decline in output of financial services, this was partly offset by increases in computer services, management consultancy, legal and
architectural services.
Government and other services fell by 0.2 per cent over the quarter. Health and social services increased by 0.8 per cent. Education services output was down by 0.6 per cent as a result of a decline in private sector education and training. Other services fell by 1.1 per cent largely as
a result of a reduction in output of recreational services.
Construction: Output is estimated to have fallen by 1.1% compared with a fall of 0.8% in the previous quarter.
Household expenditure: In real terms, in Q3 it was broadly unchanged from the level of Q2, while gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.3%
Nominal GDP: GDP at current market prices rose by 1.0% compared with a fall of 0.6% in 2009 Q2.
Growth in household expenditure remained flat over the quarter, compared with a fall of 0.6 per cent in 2009 Q2.
There was a strong increase in expenditure on motor vehicles and higher spending on recreational goods and services. These increases were offset by reductions in
spending on clothing and footwear, energy, and restaurants and hotels.
Government expenditure rose by 0.2 per cent and the volume of spending is now 1.9 per cent higher than in the same quarter of 2008.
Trade
The deficit in net trade increased to £7.2 billion from £6.5 billion in 2009 Q2, trimming GDP growth by 0.2 per cent as imports rose faster than exports.
Exports of goods rose by 2.4 per cent. The main contributors to this rise were motor vehicles and chemicals.
Imports of goods rose by 3.2 per cent, due mainly to motor vehicles, fuels, intermediate goods, and capital goods.
Exports of services fell by 2.1 per cent on the quarter due largely to reductions in travel to the UK and reduced earnings from royalties and license fees.
Imports of services decreased by 3.7 per cent; driven by reductions in spending abroad.
Salaries: Compensation of employees decreased by 0.4 per cent in 2009 Q3, compared with an increase of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. This reflects flat earnings growth and declining employment over the quarter. Compensation of employees was 0.9 per cent below the
same quarter of 2008, the biggest decline on record.
Note re statistics and their revisions:
Common pitfalls in interpreting series: Expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high. Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. Early estimates are based on incomplete data. Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of ‘errors’ in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical ‘error’ but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques, or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable ‘errors’ such as human or system failures, and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
OECD projections for Eurozone GDP
In its Economic Outlook No.86, the OECD (oecd.org) makes the following projections re real GDP growth for the Eurozone:
2009 -4.0%
2010: +0.9%
2011: +1.7%
Read the Editorial and summary of projections, especially the risks associated with these projections in: http://bit.ly/3cSOQl
2009 -4.0%
2010: +0.9%
2011: +1.7%
Read the Editorial and summary of projections, especially the risks associated with these projections in: http://bit.ly/3cSOQl
Friday, November 13, 2009
EU and Eurozone out of recession in Q3
According to flash estimates of the Eurostat re the third quarter of 2009
Q3 2009 compared to Q2 2009:
Eurozone: GDP increased by 0.4%
EU: GDP increased by 0.2%
In Q2 2009, growth rates were -0.2% in the Eurozone and -0.3% in the EU.
Q3 2009 compared to Q3 2008:
Eurozone: seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.1% (was -4.8% in Q2 2009 vs. Q2 2008)
EU: seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.3% (was -4.9% in Q2 2009 vs. Q2 2008)
These are flash estimates by Eurostat and are subject to revision with the two regular estimates of GDP for Q3 of 2009 scheduled for 3 December 2009 and 8 January 2010.
Q3 2009 compared to Q2 2009:
Eurozone: GDP increased by 0.4%
EU: GDP increased by 0.2%
In Q2 2009, growth rates were -0.2% in the Eurozone and -0.3% in the EU.
Q3 2009 compared to Q3 2008:
Eurozone: seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.1% (was -4.8% in Q2 2009 vs. Q2 2008)
EU: seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.3% (was -4.9% in Q2 2009 vs. Q2 2008)
These are flash estimates by Eurostat and are subject to revision with the two regular estimates of GDP for Q3 of 2009 scheduled for 3 December 2009 and 8 January 2010.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
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