The Germans have a problem with the direction of ECB (see "Juergen Stark in surprise resignation from ECB" on bbcnews.com)? If so, then what should the PIIGS say re ECB's Bundesbankish inflation phobia?
Rigid, antiquated, dogmatic economic thinking is putting European integration in peril (along with populist politicking)
Has the ECB inflation policy 2002-present reflected an equilibrium of the needs of all parts of the Eurozone or just a few of its members?
More Operations Research techniques and POV have to be applied to policy making. Europe needs more decision scientists in policy making (has more than enough politics, economics and finance)
Use of multivariate and Regression analysis in policy making can help Europe avoid a new recession and adopt a uniform economic policy that is an equilibrium of the need of the parts of the whole. That is what happens at national levels already, not a rocket science!
Plus since policy is a bundle of measures, it can it calibrated so as to maximise the benefits for the parts of the whole as well as the whole.
That is why I say, bring in the decision scientists in the policy making "room".
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
PPE or PLB? Philosophy plus Politics and Economics or Law and Business?
The following thoughts were prompted during/after reading "Economists, it’s time for the lawyers" by Alan Beattie in The Financial Times, June 17 2011
Since we live in societies where it's the laws that rule (although there tend to be too many laws, conflicting and ovelapping ones, to the point that the statement that a citizen must be aware of all laws is rendered utopian), a law degree is one of the qualifications needed for a CEO or other senior manager or decision maker (and has been for decades, for CEOs, in the US and internationally).
On the other hand, economics, in spite of its fancy math formulae, was and remains a social science, ie it has no "laws", as eg Physics does, so its theories tend to evolve into dogmae, hence explaining the often dogmatic disagreements between economic schools of thought (dogmae).
Maybe it is also time for the MBAs and in general for people who have experience of life, the economics of daily life and of running a biz (even a micro one) or being an executive, to assume jobs in places like the IMF, World Bank, etc.
In the UK, many political leaders etc have the well known "PPE" (Philosophy, Politics, Economics) degree. Maybe a Philosophy, Law and Business degree would be more suited in this era!
PS. One of the issues is to what extent knowledge or even a degree in Finance is needed today not only for the top exec of a place like the IMF, ie does one need to understand bond convexity to be the head of the IMF or even a citizen who can understand the Greek or the Eurozone crisis? IMO, No.
PS2. Which of course begs the question, is Finance a section of Economics or a science of its own? One could also argue whether Economics is (after all, still) a section of Sociology.
PS3. Our times, it could be said, are too financial, in addition to being too "legal", maybe too economic, not philosophical enough, too just-in-time, in other words too complex, too volatile and inter-disciplinary. Thus maybe a university degree programme in "Understanding the multi-facet world we live in and in making Decisions" in it could be the best qualification not only for leaders as well as all kinds of decision makers, even the average citizen (and voter).
Since we live in societies where it's the laws that rule (although there tend to be too many laws, conflicting and ovelapping ones, to the point that the statement that a citizen must be aware of all laws is rendered utopian), a law degree is one of the qualifications needed for a CEO or other senior manager or decision maker (and has been for decades, for CEOs, in the US and internationally).
On the other hand, economics, in spite of its fancy math formulae, was and remains a social science, ie it has no "laws", as eg Physics does, so its theories tend to evolve into dogmae, hence explaining the often dogmatic disagreements between economic schools of thought (dogmae).
Maybe it is also time for the MBAs and in general for people who have experience of life, the economics of daily life and of running a biz (even a micro one) or being an executive, to assume jobs in places like the IMF, World Bank, etc.
In the UK, many political leaders etc have the well known "PPE" (Philosophy, Politics, Economics) degree. Maybe a Philosophy, Law and Business degree would be more suited in this era!
PS. One of the issues is to what extent knowledge or even a degree in Finance is needed today not only for the top exec of a place like the IMF, ie does one need to understand bond convexity to be the head of the IMF or even a citizen who can understand the Greek or the Eurozone crisis? IMO, No.
PS2. Which of course begs the question, is Finance a section of Economics or a science of its own? One could also argue whether Economics is (after all, still) a section of Sociology.
PS3. Our times, it could be said, are too financial, in addition to being too "legal", maybe too economic, not philosophical enough, too just-in-time, in other words too complex, too volatile and inter-disciplinary. Thus maybe a university degree programme in "Understanding the multi-facet world we live in and in making Decisions" in it could be the best qualification not only for leaders as well as all kinds of decision makers, even the average citizen (and voter).
Friday, March 26, 2010
decision making: People do not have computer minds in order to formulate every problem ..
... into a mathematical function to be maximised under constraints (like a linear or non-linear regression (Operations Research, OR) model). Some problems can, due to size of parameters. But most do not. Eg for my MS thesis I used a combination of optimisation and "heuristic" technique/approach to find as optimal as possible solution to an aircraft assignment problem.
Plus most problems, be they personal, family/household, policy or business, do not have full data available to plug them in a get a solution. Usually logic, esp. deductive reasoning, trade-off analysis, as well as a philosophical mentality or even wisdom are the necessary ingredients.
As one of my professors in Forecasting used to say, if the world could be "represented" by a model, then that model would become the world.
Any lessons re the "financial world" and its certainties?
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