According to US Commerce Department stats, sales of new homes in the US were -11.3% in November (seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 355,000 homes, 45,000 down from a revised stat of 400,000 for October).
Note: The +7.4% rise is home sales published yesterday refers to existing-home sales and most of the November sales reported by the Realtors are based on decisions buyers made in September or October (before the government incentives were extended to April 2010).
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
US existing home sales in November
According to the US National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales were +7.4% in November to an annual rate of 6.5 million.
Most of the November sales reported by the Realtors are based on decisions buyers made in September or October, when many buyers were rushing to buy homes in time to qualify for a tax credit that was due to expire November 30 (but was later extended to April 2010.)
That is the highest figure in more than two years.
Most of the November sales reported by the Realtors are based on decisions buyers made in September or October, when many buyers were rushing to buy homes in time to qualify for a tax credit that was due to expire November 30 (but was later extended to April 2010.)
That is the highest figure in more than two years.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
UK house prices to end the year approx. +7% compared to January 2009
In 2008, UK house prices fell 15%. According to the Nationwide Index they reached their low point in February 2009. Yet, due to positive developments, prices have been rising since then, and according to a Daily Mail (Mail Online) article, they are expected to end 2009 around 7% higher than January 2009.
As per 2010 and beyond, the article contains some pessimistic as well as other, less pessimistic, analyses and predictions by market analysts and experts. But, IMO, predictions are ... predictions, so I am not mentioning them or commenting on them.
"On other news" Prince William slept a night in -4C temps near Blackfriars Bridge in the City in homeless person's gear in order to gain even a little, after only 1 night, understanding of the POV of a homeless person as well as raise awareness. He did so after an idea of the chief executive of Centerpoint, a charity that helps the young homeless. The Prince did not sleep in the open alone, of course, for security purposes, he was accompanied by the chief exec of the charity, which celebrates its 40th year, as well as 2 men responsible for is security. IMO this was a worthy project.
On a more philosophical note regarding home ownership, home, mobility, homelessness, etc, read my post from 14 December 2009 "Home ownership - The core of our stability?"
As per 2010 and beyond, the article contains some pessimistic as well as other, less pessimistic, analyses and predictions by market analysts and experts. But, IMO, predictions are ... predictions, so I am not mentioning them or commenting on them.
"On other news" Prince William slept a night in -4C temps near Blackfriars Bridge in the City in homeless person's gear in order to gain even a little, after only 1 night, understanding of the POV of a homeless person as well as raise awareness. He did so after an idea of the chief executive of Centerpoint, a charity that helps the young homeless. The Prince did not sleep in the open alone, of course, for security purposes, he was accompanied by the chief exec of the charity, which celebrates its 40th year, as well as 2 men responsible for is security. IMO this was a worthy project.
On a more philosophical note regarding home ownership, home, mobility, homelessness, etc, read my post from 14 December 2009 "Home ownership - The core of our stability?"
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Construction output in the EU and its Eurozone in October 2009
These are first estimates released on December 17 by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities re output in the construction sector in the EU and the Eurozone,
1) Seasonally adjusted production decreased by 0.6% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the EU in October 2009, compared with September 2009. In September 2009, production had fallen by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.
2) Compared with a year ago, ie October 2008, output in October 2009 dropped by 7.7% in the Eurozone and by 6.9% in the EU.
Member States:
1) Monthly comparison
Among the Member States for which data are available for October 2009, construction output fell in nine, rose in Slovenia (+3.7%) and Sweden (+0.4%), and remained stable in France. The largest decreases were recorded in Slovakia (-7.3%), Bulgaria and Romania (both -4.4%).
Building construction dropped by 1.0% in the Eurozone and by 0.7% in the EU, after -0.7% and -0.6% respectively in September.
Civil engineering increased by 0.8% in the Eurozne and by 1.4% in the EU, after -2.2% and -0.8% respectively in the previous month.
2) Annual comparison
Among the Member States for which data are available for October 2009, construction output fell in nine and rose in Poland (+3.3%), the Czech Republic (+1.5%) and Germany (+0.2%). The largest decreases were registered in Slovenia (-28.2%), Bulgaria (-25.1%), Romania (-24.7%) and Slovakia (-21.2%).
Building construction fell by 10.1% in the Eurozone and by 9.9% in the EU, after -10.3% in both zones in September.
Civil engineering increased by 1.0% in the Eurozone and by 5.5% in the EU, after -0.9% and +2.5% respectively in the previous month.
(The EU has 27 member states, 16 of which are in the Eurozone)
1) Seasonally adjusted production decreased by 0.6% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the EU in October 2009, compared with September 2009. In September 2009, production had fallen by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.
2) Compared with a year ago, ie October 2008, output in October 2009 dropped by 7.7% in the Eurozone and by 6.9% in the EU.
Member States:
1) Monthly comparison
Among the Member States for which data are available for October 2009, construction output fell in nine, rose in Slovenia (+3.7%) and Sweden (+0.4%), and remained stable in France. The largest decreases were recorded in Slovakia (-7.3%), Bulgaria and Romania (both -4.4%).
Building construction dropped by 1.0% in the Eurozone and by 0.7% in the EU, after -0.7% and -0.6% respectively in September.
Civil engineering increased by 0.8% in the Eurozne and by 1.4% in the EU, after -2.2% and -0.8% respectively in the previous month.
2) Annual comparison
Among the Member States for which data are available for October 2009, construction output fell in nine and rose in Poland (+3.3%), the Czech Republic (+1.5%) and Germany (+0.2%). The largest decreases were registered in Slovenia (-28.2%), Bulgaria (-25.1%), Romania (-24.7%) and Slovakia (-21.2%).
Building construction fell by 10.1% in the Eurozone and by 9.9% in the EU, after -10.3% in both zones in September.
Civil engineering increased by 1.0% in the Eurozone and by 5.5% in the EU, after -0.9% and +2.5% respectively in the previous month.
(The EU has 27 member states, 16 of which are in the Eurozone)
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
US building permits, housing starts and completions up in November
In the US, November building permits, housing starts and housing completions all up compared to October (+6%, +8.9%, +8.7% respectively)
According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development new residential construction statistics for November 2009 are as follows:
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. This is 6.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 551,000, but is 7.3 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 473,000; this is 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 449,000.
b) Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 86,000 in November.
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 8.9 percent (±10.2%) above the revised October estimate of 527,000, but is 12.4 percent (±9.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 655,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 482,000; this is 2.1 percent (±9.2%)* above the revised October figure of 472,000.
b) The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 83,000.
Housing Completions:
Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000. This is 8.7 percent (±13.7%) above the revised October estimate of 745,000, but is 25.3 percent (±10.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 1,084,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 524,000; this is unchanged (±11.7%) compared with the revised October figure.
b) The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000.
Note: New Residential Construction data for December 2009 will be released on Wednesday, January
According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development new residential construction statistics for November 2009 are as follows:
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. This is 6.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 551,000, but is 7.3 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 473,000; this is 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 449,000.
b) Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 86,000 in November.
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 8.9 percent (±10.2%) above the revised October estimate of 527,000, but is 12.4 percent (±9.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 655,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 482,000; this is 2.1 percent (±9.2%)* above the revised October figure of 472,000.
b) The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 83,000.
Housing Completions:
Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000. This is 8.7 percent (±13.7%) above the revised October estimate of 745,000, but is 25.3 percent (±10.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 1,084,000.
Of which:
a) Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 524,000; this is unchanged (±11.7%) compared with the revised October figure.
b) The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000.
Note: New Residential Construction data for December 2009 will be released on Wednesday, January
Thursday, October 29, 2009
House prices in England and Wales in September
House prices in England + Wales rose by 0.9% in September compared to August according to the Land Registry; -5.6% from Sept 2008
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Revised UK GDP and other data for Q2 2009
Q2 2009 Gross UK domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, instead of the previous ONS estimate of a -0.7% and an original estimate of -0.8%.
.
The Office for National Statistics stats show a manufacturing fell of 0.1% in Q2, instead of a previous estimate of -0.2%.
The new estimate of decline in construction in Q2 is 0.8%, quite lower than the previous ONS estimate of 2.2%!
.
The Office for National Statistics stats show a manufacturing fell of 0.1% in Q2, instead of a previous estimate of -0.2%.
The new estimate of decline in construction in Q2 is 0.8%, quite lower than the previous ONS estimate of 2.2%!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
UK house prices
House prices in the UK rose by 0.8% in August 2009 compared with July 2009, according to the Halifax. That is the second month in a row of higher prices.
Yet in the June-August period they still were 10.1% lower compared with the same period in 2008.
Yet in the June-August period they still were 10.1% lower compared with the same period in 2008.
Friday, August 28, 2009
sales of new and existing US homes in July
The annual rate of sales of new US homes rose 9.6% July, beating analysts' expectations.
This constitutes the biggest rise in sales of new houses since September 2008.
Other data showed a 7.2% rise in the sales of existing home sales in July.
This constitutes the biggest rise in sales of new houses since September 2008.
Other data showed a 7.2% rise in the sales of existing home sales in July.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
US real estate
US sales of existing homes were up by 7.2% in July, at an annual rate of 5.24 million units.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
US homes sales in June
According to the US National Association of Realtors, in June, sales of previously-owned homes rose rose 3.6% to an annual rate of 4.89 million, up from 4.77 million in May. This is third month of rising sales a row.
On the othe hand, house prices were still down 15.4% compared to a year ago and the average sale price now is $181,000.
On the othe hand, house prices were still down 15.4% compared to a year ago and the average sale price now is $181,000.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
US real estate, stocks and optimism
A better-than-expected report on the housing market in June that was issued by the US Commerce Dept. today (Friday) dampened demand for safe investments.
Construction of homes and apartments jumped 3.6% in June, to the highest level in seven months, beating economists’ estimates while building permits climbed 8.7%, also beating forecasts.
Yet note: Builders are trying to complete homes before a November deadline that gives first-time buyers a special tax break.
This week, the Dow Jones industrials and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index posted their best weekly performance since the week ending March 13, when the stock market’s spring surge began.
Construction of homes and apartments jumped 3.6% in June, to the highest level in seven months, beating economists’ estimates while building permits climbed 8.7%, also beating forecasts.
Yet note: Builders are trying to complete homes before a November deadline that gives first-time buyers a special tax break.
This week, the Dow Jones industrials and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index posted their best weekly performance since the week ending March 13, when the stock market’s spring surge began.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
US real estate: new homes' sales declined in May
Real estate: The sales of new homes declined in May, defying expectations; it seems that many buyers opted for cheaper previously owned homes that are on discount.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
new US homes in May: modest rise
According to the National Association of Realtors, in May, sales of previously owned homes rose 2.4% to an annual rate of 4.77 million, up from 4.66 million in April. This means that sales have risen for a second month in a row in but at a slower pace than expected pace.
House prices in May were down 16.8% compared with May 2008 and the average sale price was $173,000 ($207,900 in May 2008).
House prices in May were down 16.8% compared with May 2008 and the average sale price was $173,000 ($207,900 in May 2008).
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
new US homes in April
While the number of new houses being built in the US in May bounced back from record lows in April, industrial production in the same month fell by more than the analysts' expectations.
On the other hand, the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association expects economic activity to increase by 0.5% between July and September (Q3/2009), thus providing growth (ie positive growth of the real Gross Domestic Product), albeit not necessarily a stable/steady one, at least not yet, thus not preventing at 10% unemployment rate by early 2010.
The key "link" is the US economy's over-reliance on private consumption (2/3 of GNP) and the correlation between the state of the housing market and its mortgages and jobs. If unemployment comes down, that will affect the housing market in a positive way as well as consumer spending, if the housing market continues to be in bad shape, that will continue to affect consumer spending and jobs. Can a third factor, eg the stimulus spending or something else (what?) "break" this "vicious circle"?
Reminder: In Q1 of this year, the US economy shrank by an annual rate of 5.7%
On the other hand, the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association expects economic activity to increase by 0.5% between July and September (Q3/2009), thus providing growth (ie positive growth of the real Gross Domestic Product), albeit not necessarily a stable/steady one, at least not yet, thus not preventing at 10% unemployment rate by early 2010.
The key "link" is the US economy's over-reliance on private consumption (2/3 of GNP) and the correlation between the state of the housing market and its mortgages and jobs. If unemployment comes down, that will affect the housing market in a positive way as well as consumer spending, if the housing market continues to be in bad shape, that will continue to affect consumer spending and jobs. Can a third factor, eg the stimulus spending or something else (what?) "break" this "vicious circle"?
Reminder: In Q1 of this year, the US economy shrank by an annual rate of 5.7%
Thursday, June 11, 2009
US real estate stats and forecasts
RealtyTrac forecasts that approximately 4 million foreclosure filings will be made in 2009 on approx. 3.1 million households with loans, while in 2008 there were 3.1 million filings on approximately 2.4 million households. Compare these numbers with 800,000 filings on 550,000 households that take place in a "typical year"!
Based on RealtyTrac's estimates and statistics:
* Foreclosure filings declined 6% in May compared with the record high in April, but they were still 18% up compared with May 2008.
* There were almost 1 million foreclosure filings in the March-May three-month period, a record
* Failures of many seriously delinquent loans that had been put on hold during the moratoria promoted by the government have been thrown back into the foreclosure "market".
* On the other hand, the government's plans to ease loan modifications and refinancing have not been implemented long enough to affect foreclosures.
* 10% states accounted for about 77% of the total number of foreclosure actions in May. These are the states where sales and prices increased the most in the five-year housing boom in early 2000s
The latest "beige book" - report by the Fed, for the period from mid-April to mid-May, says that the New York, Philadelphia , Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco districts are reporting more home sales.
So, if unemployment continues to soar, this will prevent a rebounding of the real estate market.
A vicious circle that can or cannot be broken by the US government's measures?
Thus, less than a decade after the dotcom bubble bursting, the effects of the bursting of a housing bubble that was led by over construction in 10 states and the invention of those flaky "subprime loans" (based on disregard for systemic risks to the real estate market) have led to an economic and employment crisis (6 mil jobs lost in 18 months) that is rocking the US and global economy. O tempora!
Monday, June 1, 2009
US real estate situation
Partly driven by high unemployment, and in spite of various government measures to cut home loan rates etc, 12.07% of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage were either late paying or foreclosed at the end of Q1/2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association!
The economic and jobs situation has driven up foreclosures of the so called "prime fixed-rate loans". What is worth noting is that these loans are the loans made to the most credit-worthy borrowers and they make up 65% of the $9.9 trillion in outstanding first mortgages!
In Q1/2009, foreclosure actions were initiated on 1.37% of first mortgages, a record number!
All that in spite of the fact that the average rate on 30-year mortgages was 5.05% percent in January, 5.13%in February and 5.00% in March according to Freddie Mac, whereas a year earlier the average monthly rates were near 6%.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Q1 2009 GDP in Germany, France, Spain
The GDP stats for the first quarter of 2009 (Q1/2009) are in for Germany, France as well as Spain.
a) France. The fall/shrinking of the GDP was 1.2% (which is in line with expectations) compared to the previous quarter. Since in Q4/2008 the stat was -1.5%, this has given rise to views that the recession in France "may" be easing. No comment! By the way, the French Economy Ministry expects the French economy to contract by 3% in 2009.
b) Germany: Driven by lagging exports and investment, the GDP drop in Q1/2009 was a record 3.8% (!!), ie the worst GDP performance since re-unification (compared to the previous quarter), yielding a year-on-year drop of 6.7%, against a 6% prediction for the whole year 2009 made by the German government! The Q4/2008 drop, 2.2%, was the previous record low until the stats for Q1/2009 came in!
Is Germany (along with other traditional exports - trade surplus world "champions" economies) paying a price for their over-reliance on exports?
c) Spain: In Q1/2009. GDP fell 1.8% compared to Q4/2008 and shrank 2.9% on a year-on-year basis, based on preliminary data, making this the worst GDP performance since 1959! The Spanish government has predicted a GDP drop of 1.6% for 2009
Spain, which joined the EEC/EU in 1986, enjoyed 14 years of consecutive growth until it entered into recession Q4/2008. It seems that many experts think that Spain has major "economic imbalances" and that this will delay its rebounding. It also seems that the construction industry's major perils are a core driver of the Spanish economic recession.
a) France. The fall/shrinking of the GDP was 1.2% (which is in line with expectations) compared to the previous quarter. Since in Q4/2008 the stat was -1.5%, this has given rise to views that the recession in France "may" be easing. No comment! By the way, the French Economy Ministry expects the French economy to contract by 3% in 2009.
b) Germany: Driven by lagging exports and investment, the GDP drop in Q1/2009 was a record 3.8% (!!), ie the worst GDP performance since re-unification (compared to the previous quarter), yielding a year-on-year drop of 6.7%, against a 6% prediction for the whole year 2009 made by the German government! The Q4/2008 drop, 2.2%, was the previous record low until the stats for Q1/2009 came in!
Is Germany (along with other traditional exports - trade surplus world "champions" economies) paying a price for their over-reliance on exports?
c) Spain: In Q1/2009. GDP fell 1.8% compared to Q4/2008 and shrank 2.9% on a year-on-year basis, based on preliminary data, making this the worst GDP performance since 1959! The Spanish government has predicted a GDP drop of 1.6% for 2009
Spain, which joined the EEC/EU in 1986, enjoyed 14 years of consecutive growth until it entered into recession Q4/2008. It seems that many experts think that Spain has major "economic imbalances" and that this will delay its rebounding. It also seems that the construction industry's major perils are a core driver of the Spanish economic recession.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)