In today's over-complicated systemics+dynamics one has to either beef up the analysis or give it up altogether.
Over-analysis is not a symptom of too much analysis but of faulty analysis, usually with faulty tools.
Plus if your analysis is often off, take another look at your information sources. Time to try new ones maybe?
Trial and error and celebrating failure are OK but not excuses for under-valuing analysis and strategy.
If you are not comfy with analysis, then go with gut feeling. But best of luck then. You are out there on your own, no support equipment!
Thinking is not boring, merely some people's way of thinking is.
So, John Lennon was right: Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans.
But that is why strategy instead of mere planning or having plans or a plan is the key.
Because strategic thinking is not about a prediction and a plan based on it but based on many alternative scenarios.
Do not mistake over-thinking for too much thinking, it actually is faulty thinking that's the real problem.
In this complex and uncertain era, analysis and strategic thinking are after all is said and done also a matter of philosophy.
So in this zany era, you can either throw strategy out of the window or do it properly.