Tuesday, December 22, 2009

UK Q3 2009 GDP revised upwards

According to the Office of National Statistics (December 22), the Gross Domestic Product for Q3 has been revised upwards to -0.2%.

The previous estimate was -0.3%, whereas the initial estimate had been -0.4%. In spite this improvement, which is due to better than previously measured growth in the construction sector (partly offset by downward revisions to production and services), this means that the UK economy remained in recession in Q3 after all. It has been in recession (negative GDP growth), since Q2 of 2008.

Q3 2009 GDP remains at -5.1% compared to Q3 2008.

According to the ONS, construction output rose by 1.9% over the quarter, revised up from a fall of 1.1% reported in the previous estimate.

Output of the production industries fell by 0.9% compared with a fall of 0.6% in the previous quarter, with output of mining, oil and gas falling by 5.7%. GVA excluding oil and gas extraction was flat over the quarter.

Output in the service industries fell by 0.2% in the third quarter, compared with a fall of 0.8% in Q2.

Household expenditure growth rose 0.1%, although remains 3.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.

General government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.3% and is now 2.1% higher than the third quarter of 2008.

Gross fixed capital formation rose by 2.2% although it remains 13.3% lower than the third quarter of 2008.

Inventories continued to be reduced, down £4.6 billion on the quarter.

The trade deficit in real terms rose to £7.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009. Exports of goods and services rose 0.8% while imports rose 1.5 per cent.

The GDP expenditure deflator rose by 2.1% compared with the third quarter of 2008, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter.

Compensation of employees at current prices fell by 0.1% and is now 1.0% below the level seen a year ago.

Total gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 2.7% and is now 2.7% lower than a year ago.

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