US orders for durable manufactured goods fell in June by 2.5%, the largest amount in the last five months.
Lower demand for air travel led to commercial aircraft orders down 38.5%, while orders for motor vehicles and parts fell by 1%.
Note: If one excludes transportation related goods, orders for durable goods were up by 1.1% in June.
Václav Klaus, the Eurosceptic libertarian president of the Czech Republic, is threatening to delay the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, assuming the new Irish ref. is a "Yes" one, before the end of the year. As President of the Czech Rep., his signature is needed.
That may also delay the assumption of duty by the new group of Commissioners, and the existing team may have to assume a caretaker role after its official mandate expires on October 31, 2009.
The UK economy contracted 0.8% in Q2 (the April - June trimester).
This is more than double the rate that many economists expected (-0.3%), but much less than the 2.4% contraction in Q1.
The effect of the stimulus on jobs will peak at the end of 2010 according to top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers.
According to Mr Summers, rising joblessness does not prove that the stimulus "is falling short".
Well, IMO, if the effects of the stimulus on jobs take until the end of 2010 to materialise, the stimulus package is not falling short but long!
The US's central bank (the US Federal Reserve Bank) in its revised predictions says that the US economy will contract by 1%-1.5% this year. That is a better forecast that the May one (-1.3% - -2%).
For 2010, it now forecasts growth by 2.1% to 3.3% (May forecasts: 2% to 3%).
But the Fed now warns that US unemployment could rise above 10%, as high as 10.1%! In June, unemployment climbed to 9.5%, the highest rate in 26 years (1983)!
In its analysis of the US economy, the Fed points out that: consumer spending appeared to have stabilized since the start of the year, sales and starts of new homes were flattening out, and the recent declines in capital spending did not look as severe as those that had occurred around the turn of the year. Moreover, it seemed likely that economic activity was in the process of leveling out, and the considerable improvements in financial markets over recent months were likely to lend further support to aggregate demand.
Driven by a 17,5% rise in petrol prices, the US Consumer Price Index rose by 0.7% in June. May's rise of 0.1%.
Since energy costs were in crisis in 2008, when compared to 2008, the 2009 prices index is down 1.4%.
This 1.4% decline is the largest year-on-year decline in CPI in the US in nearly 60 years!
Unemployment in the UK reached 2.38 million in May 2008, after a 281,000 rise in the March to May period, leading to an unemployment rate of 7.6% that the highest in the UK in more than 10 years.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefit increased by 23,800 in June, reaching 1.56 million.
In June, US retail sales rose in June by 0.6% (May: 0.5%), driven by petrol, cars and auto parts.
But when these 3 are excluded, sales dropped 0.2%, for the 4th month in a row.
The June Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.8%.in June, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to an annual rate of 1.8% (2.2% in May), the lowest since more than 2 years and below the government's target rate of 2.0%.
The Retail Prices Index (RPI), another inflation measure, one that includes mortgage interest payments and housing costs, fell to -1.6% in June (-1.1% in May), lowest rate since ONS statistics started being kept in 1948!
1) Eurozone inflation was -0.1% in June (0% in May), first time since the establishment of the Euro currency.
Analyses differ at to whether this an isolated occurence or it will continue in the coming months.
2) The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1% at its monthly meeting (July 2)
Hence, 15 million people in the Eurozone were out of work in May 2009!
In the EU27, the rate in May was 8.9% (21.5 million jobless in the EU in May)
Spain tops the list of 27 with 18.7% and NL has the lowest, only 3.2%.
Exports are a significant factor for the economy of India, 15% of GDP.
Thus the news that India's exports fell in May for the 8th consecutive month is crucial.
Exports in May were down 29.2% from May 2008 and imports 39.2% (valued in India's national currency) and the trade deficit was about 50% that of May 2008.
Which begs the economic, social and philosophical question: Is reduction of countries' trade deficit due to the global recession a "good" or a "bad" thing? Food for thought.
