Tuesday, 14 August 2012
Is Germany a bull in the Eurozone's China Store?
Some thoughts of mine on PressEurop's very interesting report: Berlin still selling too much (14/8/2012)
1) The FAZ comments IMO, at best, show (let's call it) "non-systemic thinking".
2) Is Germany exporting too much or importing and in general consuming too little? Too little from the Eurozone?
3) In terms of trade surplus, Germany is a bull in a China Store. Funny thing is, Germany's inflation phobia makes China another bull in the Eurozone and EU's "stores"/mkts for goods.
4) Germany saves "a lot" which means it has to find outlets for its investments. No wonder Germany had invested "a lot" in the PIIGS (while selling "a lot" to them too). The rest is not "rocket science"!
5) But the strategic/systemic question is: Is Germany too big to be part of the EU/EZ but too small to be a power on its own? And if Germany is too small to be a world power on its own, what do that say for eg UK's ambitions? France, sometimes arrogant, nevertheless knows it needs "Europe". UK and Germany (and others) act as if they do not.
6) Marketing: What exactly is Germany exporting that the Eurozone (40%), EU (60%), the world, a) cannot substitute or b) always need/want?
7) So with Germany having cornered the high quality market, China the low price one & US the new tech one, what's left for (most of) the rest?
8) Problem not only that Berlin still selling too much but its policy/philosophy not selling (in many parts of Europe/EU/Eurozone)