Saturday, December 19, 2009

Trying to put together the pieces of the Climate Change "Accord" 4:20 am CET Dec. 19

Below is my attempt to compile as many of the elements and parameters of the so called "Copenhagen Accord" (sic), approved by about 20+ countries out of the 193 present in the COP15 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. None of the elements are necessarily accurate, alas.

* 120 countries leaders attended the COP15 (a record for COPs) even for a few hours (eg Obama)
* It appears that Pres. Obama reached a deal, initially, with China, India, South Africa and Brazil. It is not legally binding.
* The EU is not satisfied with the "accord", not sure whether it was present when it was drafted. It seems that after the initial agreement between Obama and the other 4, a group of 20+ countries, including the EU, worked on it.
* It seems that the EU is going to go for its existing target (I think -20% compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 w/o an accord, and is willing to go deeper (I think to -30% of 1990 levels) by 2020 provided there is an agreement.
* The "accord" sets an upper temperature limit of 2 degrees Celsius.
* A +2 degrees over pre-industrial era limit does not solve the problem for the small island country of Tuvalu and some more such countries which are said to sink below sea level should temperature reach +1.5 degrees.
* The US pledges 100 bn USD by developing countries to others but starting from 2020.

* The fast start aid, 30 bn for 3 years, 2010-12, has so far contribution pldges from:
1) The EU, around 10 billion (athough I have read a report that the European Parliament in adopting the EU budget for 2010 noticed that European Commission and Council have not budgeted this money and it may have to come from extra contributions by EU member states)
2) China about 11 billion
3) The US only 3-4 billion (!!)

* China broke with its allies in the developing nations' group of "77 and China" by embracing the accord with the US.
* Obama's ability to commit is said to be partly blocked by the fact that carbon capping US legislation is "stalled" in the US Senate
* A target that mentioned in some draft texts of reducing world greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050 seemed not to be in the accord.
* Many of the delegations that were not part of the drafting of the "accord" are crying "foul".

* Another meeting is planned for 6 months from now in Bonn, Germany.
* It seems that the "accord" envisages countries submitting targets next month
* It seems that there is an end-2010 date for turning this non legally binding "accord" into a legally binding one and, if I understood N. Sarkozy's statements correctly, the President of Mexico has been mandated to try to draft such a document.

This for now, 4:40 am CET, Dec. 19, 2009.

5 am CET/Copenhagen time (11 pm EST), the Plenary seems back in session.

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BRs
Nick

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