Reminder: The Euro was created to promote intra-EU (intra EU Single Market) commerce & activity in general, not to become a tool for power games.
Reminder (2): The Euro was not created to make Euro members' exports and services like tourism less competitive & Japanese, US, Chinese etc imports more competitive.
Yet the obsessive pursuit by the ECB of the 2% inflation target led to high central interest rates that led a Euro that spent much of the decade at exchange rates that suffocated most if not all of the Eurozone economies.
So some members did benefit from lower rates in their sovereign bonds etc but the effect of the expensive Euro on Eurozone firms, exporters and services such as tourism was a heavy price to pay.
So are "internal devaluations" or even exit the solution?
IMO, No!
The solutions package should include:
a) Immediate: Banning of CDSs (Credit Default Swaps) on sovereigns and of any other speculative tools on sovereign debt (bonds etc). Requires political will by the EU 27 as well as the G20, or the kind of will that is also required for dealing with the issue of tax heavens in Europe and globally.
b) Immediate: An ECB inflation policy that takes into account the effects of the central ECB rate to the Euro exchange rate vis-a-vis the USD, the Yuan, the Yen and other currencies of the EU's main trade competitors.
Inflation curbing in the Eurozone and the EU can be achieved via more dynamic implementation of EU competition law and a much more effective approach towards a real EU Single Market (too many barriers still exist).
c) ASAP: A move to not just fiscal but full political union, that will include inter alia single laws in most if not all areas of policy, to facilitate the micros and SMEs as well as the average citizen.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Friday, November 11, 2011
I am not impressed by alleged 2 speed Euro "theories"
The alleged Merkel-Sarkozy plans for 2-speed Europe or Euro do not impress me.
Why?
They cannot change the EMU part of the existing EU Treaty (via a so called IGC - Inter-Governmental Conference) w/o giving in to Cameron's demands for "repatriation" of certain competencies from EU back to national (or just UK) level!
1) If they offer Cameron what he wants, then other EU members, eg one of the other 9 outside the Euro, but not anti-EU, may raise a veto, ie veto the whole IGC agenda.
2) If they plan a Treaty that works outside the EU Treaties (in a format similar to the original Schengen way/model), then the contents of such Core EU/Euro Treaty can it seems to me can only add, not amend, articles of the existing EU Treaty.
Hence there is a Catch22 of sorts.
So what on Earth are (allegedly) Merkel and Sarkozy talking about?
In an IGC, be it EU or Euro one (see above), all will have to agree, not only Merkozy & "German thinking" others!
Bottom line: Euro membership was/is irreversible, those who do not get that are the ones in denial of legal, technical and other factors!
In speech in Strasbourg, Sarkozy called such plans a mere "intellectual exercise". IMHO they are not a trick. They are just that. Nothing feasible about them.
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