Monday, November 21, 2011

Euro reminders and solutions

Reminder: The Euro was created to promote intra-EU (intra EU Single Market) commerce & activity in general, not to become a tool for power games.

Reminder (2): The Euro was not created to make Euro members' exports and services like tourism less competitive & Japanese, US, Chinese etc imports more competitive.

Yet the obsessive pursuit by the ECB of the 2% inflation target led to high central interest rates that led a Euro that spent much of the decade at exchange rates that suffocated most if not all of the Eurozone economies.

So some members did benefit from lower rates in their sovereign bonds etc but the effect of the expensive Euro on Eurozone firms, exporters and services such as tourism was a heavy price to pay.

So are "internal devaluations" or even exit the solution?

IMO, No!

The solutions package should include:

a) Immediate: Banning of CDSs (Credit Default Swaps) on sovereigns and of any other speculative tools on sovereign debt (bonds etc). Requires political will by the EU 27 as well as the G20, or the kind of will that is also required for dealing with the issue of tax heavens in Europe and globally.

b) Immediate: An ECB inflation policy that takes into account the effects of the central ECB rate to the Euro exchange rate vis-a-vis the USD, the Yuan, the Yen and other currencies of the EU's main trade competitors.

Inflation curbing in the Eurozone and the EU can be achieved via more dynamic implementation of EU competition law and a much more effective approach towards a real EU Single Market (too many barriers still exist).

c) ASAP: A move to not just fiscal but full political union, that will include inter alia single laws in most if not all areas of policy, to facilitate the micros and SMEs as well as the average citizen.

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