Thursday, August 18, 2011

The real reality of the realities re the Eurozone

For quite some time now one can read or watch analyses, commentary, predictions about the Eurozone.

Here are some excerpts from my tweets today on the subject of all the doom and other jazz about the Euro or re exit of country X or Y or Z or XYZ or s splut in two Euros (!!), etc etc etc.:

The only realistic solution, albeit "controversial" is move to political union. That is the reality. All other solutions are not realistic.

The Euro is, by design and nature, like "Hotel California" (see Eagles' song). Ij other words, once there, there us no exit. It is technically impossible inter alia plus there is no provision is the EU Treaty for Euro exit, only EU exit.

Hence, the only solution left is political union.

Now, break up of the EZ or EU could be a realistic option only if WTO world trade was advancing. The opposite is the case. Thus no break up.

Thus: The reality, albeit hardcore, is that the EU or EZ have only one direction to move: Political Union. C'est la vie! Denial won't change it.

Exit of any country from the EZ is neither feasible nor technically & Treaty-wise possible. Thus discussing these options is a waste of time and energy.

It is high time the EU and the EZ face the real reality & not the one fabricated by financial market makers, populism, ad hungry media & sci-fi!

The Euro is not a straight jacket. And monetary, interest rate and currency policy that accommodates all members the best way possible is feasible. The only "straight-jacket" is ECB's unrealistic inflation target leading to overpriced Euro

In addition: There is no need for any exit (but which, remember, is technically infeasible & not in EU Treaties) eg if the ECB/Bundesbank adopt an interest rate that leads to a Euro below 1.2 USD.

PS1. Does anyone think that the German exporters like a Euro at 1.4 or more USD? See what the Swiss ones are saying about theirs.

PS2. The (financial) markets may or may not view a move to political union as a more stable "state". But reality is based on total systemics for what the financial markets think.


See also my vlog (10 minutes):
Euro: Reality and realities and other global dynamics

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Nick

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