Thursday, June 2, 2011

Is Trichet's EU Minister of Finance proposal paving the way for a Merkel-Sarko plan for move to federal political union?

"Would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the union?" asked (proposed) today the ECB's President Jean-Claude Trichet (read Bloomberg's news coverage here)

IMO, yes it would be too bold, unless this EU Minister of Finance was part of a EU federal government cabinet (including Ministers for Transport, Employment & Social Policy, Environment, etc), led by an EU Prime Minister, on the basis of the number of seats of political parties in the European Parliament. In other words, as part of a move to federal political union in the EU with a number of the 27 states (maybe the 17 of the Eurozone, maybe the 23 of the Europlus, maybe 26 but that last one not that likely).

So why is Mr. Trichet making this bold (and IMO incomplete) proposal and why now?

a) Maybe he is expressing his view on the portfolio (Finance or ECO/FIN) that is related to his role of (near end of term) President of the ECB.

or

b) Is he paving the way for one or two national leaders, let's say Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to propose what is within their own scope, ie the EU government and political union I referred to above! Who knows, maybe at this very minute, their advisers are working on a proposal that could be brought up even as early as the next European Council, later this month! The same way they introduced the Pact a few months ago! Sci-fi, you say? We shall see! The scenario makes sense in many ways.


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Nick

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