Wednesday, February 24, 2010

a few thoughts on decisions and the governing dynamics

Can a company, government, even household or person afford to make decisions 2day leaving the dynamics (world, etc) out of the equation?

Do the complexity of the financial system and bad public policies dominate the rest of the dynamics (social, etc) in play nowadays?

The problem with data (or lack thereof) in decision making

IME data over-dependent analyses and decision making face many de facto problems in the real world, esp. in the last few decades. On the other hand, decision sciences are not over-dependent on data.

A key lesson I took away from b-school management accounting is that joint costs cannot be allocated (via ABC etc) because if they are, that can lead to very faulty decisions in business or public policy

Real life decision making is never made with full data or fully reliable data available, that is the difficulty & beauty of decision making. Plus the "full" or perfect information assumption in Finance Theory does not bode well with the daily reality

World Trade in 2009

World trade down 12% in 2009!

Monday, February 22, 2010

Capitalism Global version needed?

Does market economy capitalism have a 1) "flu" 2) "pneumonia" or a more serious problem?

Does "Anglo-American" capitalism need to incorporate cultural elements from other countries - parts of the world and become multi-culti?

Thursday, February 18, 2010

A European Social or Societal Model?

I am not sure that a European social model exists, but IMO a European Societal model does, it is one of secularism and rule of law!

But problem is, IMO, that there are too many laws (national & now EU) for a citizen to be aware of, thus the European Societal model kinda fails doesn't it?

Saturday, February 13, 2010

EU and Eurozone industrial production in Dec 09

According to a Eurostat release (February 12) industrial production was down by 1.7% in Eurozone and down by 1.9% in EU (compared to November).

Compared to December 2008, industrial production declined by 5.0% in the Eurozone and by 4.9% in the EU.

Compared with 2008, the average production index for 2009 fell by 14.9% in the euro area and by 13.9% in the EU27.

The full Eurostat release

Q4 09 GDP data for EU, Eurozone, Germany, etc

According to Flash estimates for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2009 released by Eurostat on February 12, GDP in the EU grew by 0.1%, the same in the Eurozone (+0.1%) compared to the previous quarter. That means a slowding down of the growth rates compared in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2009, when rates were +0.3% in the EU and +0.4% in the Eurozone.

Compared to the Q4 of 2008, Q4 09 GDP in the Eurozone was -2.1% and in the EU -2.3%, which is an improvement over Q3 0f 09.

So while EU and its Eurozone grew 0.1%, the US economy grew 1.4% compared with the previous quarter.

Over the whole year in 2009, Eurozone GDP fell by 4.0% and EU GDP fell by 4.1%.

According to the same Eurostat release in the Q4 compared to Q3 the GDP rate was:

Germany 0%
France +0.6%
UK 0.1%
Spain -0.1%
Italy -0.2%

Compared to Q4 of 2008:

Germany -2.4%
UK -3.2%
France -0.3%
Italy -2.8%
Spain -3.1%

US January retail sales up!

The US Dept of Commerce announced that January 2010 US retail sales were up +0.5% over Dec 09, and + 4.7% over Jan 09.

That is a positive sign for the US economy after the disappointment of negative growth of retail sales recorded in Dec 09 (over Nov 09): Yet the figure has been revised from the initial -0.3% -0.1% (December 09 sales compared to November 09 sales).

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Economic Dynamics: Catch 22 or ....?

Philosophical, logical or faulty?

The recent analyses and concerns re the public finances in certain Southern European countries, as well as the UK and the United States, prompted me to consider the following sequence of syllogisms:

So let me see if I got that straight or not:

A) There was "systemic" trouble in the financial/banking world, originally caused to a large extent by subprimes (right or wrong so far? )

B) Then most governments/states spent loads of money to bail out or help institutions stay out of potential trouble, and

C) "now" the financial world is ...... (trying to find a proper word for it here) some of the states that either overspent on bailouts or preventive measures or whose finances are in large deficit ("imbalance") due to the fall in revenues (which is due to the economic recession that resulted from the subprime then financial then economic crisis)?

Is the preceding sequence of thoughts (algorithm)

a) on the mark or
b) missing the point?

What mark and what point though?

"too financial"?

(food for thought for policy makers)

Based on various events of the last 2-3 years in the US, Europe and the rest of the world, could one say that "the times we live in" are "too financial"?

a) Yes
b) No

And what are the implications for policy making ?

Monday, February 8, 2010

on the "X jobs for X nationals only" type of slogan

Do jobs have a "nationality"?
Are the rights of a person to employment a function of his/her nationality - national birth right?

Imperialisms version 2010

There are many types of Imperialism around, some old, some new:

Examples (of both):
a) economic (in general)
b) trade
c) financial
d) cultural,
e) intellectual

A la carte sovereignty?

Funny (?) how sovereignty is being used as basis for views on such a pick and choose way in many issues in UK, the EU - Europe, the US and other countries these days!

IMO genuine #sovereignty means not only "no immigration" and "jobs for citizens" but also NO to foreign: investors, debt, products, services, SWFs + NO to international agreements (eg WTO) or memberships of any bonding nature (UN, ECHR, COP, etc). Not a la carte!

And of course, No to exports as well!

the drawbacks of skills based immigration policy

Skills based immigration policy is, IMO, faulty because:

1) Skills needs are not easy to map. Plus some skills aren't certifiable.

2) It is not consistent with policy on trade ie offering products (imports) more rights than to humans is not that OK, is it?

Friday, February 5, 2010

Success needs no such symbols and there are no proxies in attraction!

Do you really need that expensive car to sexually attract or to feel successful? Success needs no such symbols and there are no proxies in attraction!

IMO, too many people spend too much energy in the rat race "wars" and have little energy left for making love! Which kinda misses the point or defeats the purpose!!!

An attractive personality (male/female) IMO does not need material status symbols in order to attract. So instead of working your .. off to make the money to buy material status symbols, develop your intellect and your interests, IMO

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Key Questions: How much "de-coupled" ....? 22 months later!

I wrote this post in my old blog, 22 months ago, on Thursday, March 27, 2008. When experts where posing the question how subprime led the US economic crisis was going to affect other economies, ie how dependent or "coupled" they were with the US economy.

22 months later, let's use the following as food for thought:

How much de-coupled from the US economy is .....?

It is said that in recent decades, many economies depend on the US economy for their own growth (eg via exports to the US, etc). In view of the recent troubles of the US economy and the advent of globalisation, it seems that certain economies are now less dependent ("coupled") on the US economy. So:

How much de-coupled from the US economy is your national economy? Your continent?
How much de-coupled from the US economy is your company, your employer, their sectors, your job?
How much de-coupled from the US economy are your family/personal investments/finances?
How much de-coupled from the US economy is your life?