Monday, June 8, 2009

Who will have the majority in the new European Parliament?

After the EP June 4-7 elections, this is te initial break down per group:

There are 91 MEPs who are not yet part of any group. Some of them may join existing groups or seek to form new political groups. That includes the 25 Tory MEPs who used to be part of the EPP but have declared their intention to form a new group. The rules for forming a group in the EP becomes stricter as of this, 2009-2014 term. This July, all political groups must include MEPs from at least seven Member States. The minimum number of Members required establishing a political group is 25. Thus the new group the Tories will form will have to include at least one MEP from 6 other countries, thus the group will have at leasr 25 + 6 = 31 members.

Why am I focusing on this? Read below.

The EPP (Group of the European People's Party) has now 265 seats (from 288).

That is the largest group, but does not have enough members to form a majority.

With 736 members in the 2009-2014 term, the majority in the EP is 50% +1 = 369 members.

ALDE (The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) is now be composed of 80 MEPs (100 last term), kaing it the 3th largest group.

Thus can the EPP + ALDE form a majority?

Well 265 EPP + 80 ALDE = 345!

That is 369 - 345 = 24 short of a majority.

Well, add at least 31 members the new group that the Tories will form, and one has 345 + 31 = 376 members, ie a majority of (at least) 7!

But where are the allies of the Tories come from? I guess from the 66 other MEPs who are not yet members of a group!

The other groups:

The Socialist Group (PES) has 162 seats (from 215 seats)

The Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance has 51 members (from 43), forming the fourth largest group.

The Union for Europe of the Nations Group (UEN) has now 35 (from 44)

The Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) has 33 seats (from 41)

The Independence/Democracy Group led by Nigel Farage has 19 (from 22 seats).

The exact make-up of the groups will not become clear until the first sitting of the new Plenary on July 14, when a new President and the Chairs of Committees will be elected. Based on the above, it looks like the EPP with ALDE and the group of the Tories will have the majority.

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