Thursday, June 11, 2009

US real estate stats and forecasts

RealtyTrac forecasts that approximately 4 million foreclosure filings will be made in 2009 on approx. 3.1 million households with loans, while in 2008 there were 3.1 million filings on approximately 2.4 million households. Compare these numbers with 800,000 filings on 550,000 households that take place in a "typical year"!

Based on RealtyTrac's estimates and statistics:

* Foreclosure filings declined 6% in May compared with the record high in April, but they were still 18% up compared with May 2008.
* There were almost 1 million foreclosure filings in the March-May three-month period, a record

* Failures of many seriously delinquent loans that had been put on hold during the moratoria promoted by the government have been thrown back into the foreclosure "market".

* On the other hand, the government's plans to ease loan modifications and refinancing have not been implemented long enough to affect foreclosures.
* 10% states accounted for about 77% of the total number of foreclosure actions in May. These are the states where sales and prices increased the most in the five-year housing boom in early 2000s

The latest "beige book" - report by the Fed, for the period from mid-April to mid-May, says that the New York, Philadelphia , Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco districts are reporting more home sales.

So, if unemployment continues to soar, this will prevent a rebounding of the real estate market.

A vicious circle that can or cannot be broken by the US government's measures?

Thus, less than a decade after the dotcom bubble bursting, the effects of the bursting of a housing bubble that was led by over construction in 10 states and the invention of those flaky "subprime loans" (based on disregard for systemic risks to the real estate market) have led to an economic and employment crisis (6 mil jobs lost in 18 months) that is rocking the US and global economy. O tempora!

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