Thursday, May 14, 2009

thinking: There is no certainty in Nature, is there? (part 1)

Last year, in the Spring, American drivers recorded a record fall in miles/km driven in the US, thus "showing the market" (and the speculators) that the demand for gasoline is not inelastic. At that time, I had commented that the US drivers did the whole world of energy or especially gasoline/petrol consumer a great favor by this move and its effect on/message to "the market" and while the world price of oil remained high for a few more months to come in 2008 (causing along with the global price hikes of staple foods a global crisis, before the "subprime driven" one came along), in my opinion, that decline and its message were crucial and remain so.

In general, while some socio-economic groups in Europe were protesting and going on strike asking some kind of special treatment from the governments, American drivers "showed" us - reminded us that in a market, it is not only the supply side that "makes" the market, but the demand side as well. In short, a major "lesson" in the so called "market economics".

But the idea of adaptability goes beyond markets and economics, it is in my opinion, nowadays, relevant in all aspects of life, each aspect and comprehensively/systemically as well!

Being flexible, able to adapt to changes, not only is economic conditions (see the above example) but also job, social, regulatory/legal, personal/family, etc etc etc, seems to be a key "survival and prosperity tool" of our times. In my opinion, it has always been (in the history of humankind).

That, along with the realisation that nothing in Nature is risk-free and that uncertainty is the way of Nature and that our tendency, many of us, as humans, to seek "risk-free" situations or "certainty" (in anything from job, clientele, relationships, place of residency, investments, etc etc) is noy only counter-Natural but also un-realistic - a myth which we "pay" a huge "cost" for.


  1. Nick, is uncertainty really Nature's way or is it that humans project their expectations into the way they perceive Nature to react? Seriously, as I reflect back over my life and compare how Nature has reacted to human impact I think it is quite certain how Nature reacts. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction - it is a law of physics and as such, a law of Nature. Hence, the more humans impact Nature, the more violent the reaction. Look at the intensities of natural phenomenon (typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, tides, etc.) - the changes in the intensities have been predictable in direct relation to human impact on Nature.

  2. Tami, thanks for your thought provoking comment. I am addressing the issues you raise in part 2 of "There is no certainty in Nature, is there?". Nick


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