Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Marketing analysis for the npthinking tweeting and blogging






Based on the programme twocation.com which calculates where the followers of a Twitter account are located, I received (16/8/2011, followers 1069) the following raw data which I then compiled as follows:

(%)

USA 29.50 (No. 1 overall)
Canada 3.20
Mexico 0.50
-----------
Total NAFTA 33.20%

Eurozone17:
11 of 17 reported followers:

Greece 12.30 (native) (No 3 overall)
Belgium 11.00 (No. 4 overall)

Ireland 4.00
Spain 3.20
NL 2.10
France 2.10
Portugal 1.60
Germany 1.30
Italy 0.80
Austria 0.80
Finland 0.50
------------
Total Eurozone 39.70%

EU27 - Eurozone17:
5 of 10 reported followers:
UK 14.20 (No. 2 overall)
Sweden 0.80
Denmark 0.50
Latvia 0.30
Hungary 0.30
------------
Total EU-EZ 16.10%

Total EU (16 of 27) = 39.70 + 16.10 = 55.80%

Other Europe (7):
Serbia 0.50
Jersey 0.50
Switzerland 0.50
Holy See 0.30
Russia 0.30
Turkey 0.30
Armenia 0.30
------------
Total Other Europe 2.70%
Total Europe (26 countries >0): 55.80 + 2.70 = 58.50%


Other countries:
18 more countries:
Australia 1.90
China 0.80
India 0.50
Japan 0.50
Pakistan 0.30
Singapore 0.30
Costa Rica 0.30
Panama 0.30
Paraguay 0.30
Argentina 0.30
Brazil 0.30
South Africa 0.50
Indonesia 0.50
Taiwan 0.30
Thailand 0.30
Tunisia 0.30
Greenland 0.30
New Caledonia 0.30
--------------------
Total 8.30%

The total is 97.30%, which leads me to assume that only 2.70% was not attributable to a country/location. 23 European plus 21 more countries (3 NAFTA plus 18 other) show followers of @npthinking.

Note also:
BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) = 0.30 + 0.30 + 0.50 + 0.80 = 1.9%
PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) = 1.60 + 4.00 + 0.80 + 12.30 + 3.20 = 21.90%
To adjust for native country effect, let's use for Greece the same as of Portugal (same population), then PIIGS(2) = 11.20%

EU Big 5 (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain) = 1.30 + 2.10 + 14.20 + 0.80 + 3.20 = 21.60%
1 of 5 followers are from the Big 5 EU member states, but 2/3 of that is from the UK.

Top 10 (excluding native country):
1. USA 29.5%
2. UK 14.20%
3. Belgium 11.00%
4. Ireland 4.00%
5. Spain 3.20%
5. Canada 3.20%
7. France
7. Netherlands 2.10
9. Australia 1.90
9. BRICs 1.90

Since 95% of the posts is all in English, let's see the native EN speaking share of the whole:
USA 29.50% + UK 14.20% + Ireland 4.00% + Canada 3.20% + Australia 1.90 = 52.80%

G7 (to be calculated)
G20 (to be calculated)
UNASUR (to be calculated)


Notably, these follower stats for @npthinking vary considerably from the page views stats of the npthinking blog (provided by blogger.com to each blog account for free).

Thus: To be continued!

Update 24/8 (+8 days)
1117 followers from 1069

Updated stats:
USA 31.10% up
UK 14.20% stable
Greece 14.20% up
Belgium 8.40% down
Canada 4.20% up
Ireland 3.90% down 0.10
Spain 2.40% down
Australia 1.80% down 0.10
Portugal 1.60% stable
Netherlands 1.60 down
France 1.60% down
Germany 1.30% stable
Mexico 1.10% up

---------------------------------------------------------

Update No 2 > 28/8 (+12 days, 4 since last)
1182 followers +65 since 24/8, +114 since 16/8 (+10.7%)
13 countries (same as 24.8) with shares >1% but most are down (as %) compared to 24/8.

Updated stats:
USA 33.90% up x 1182 = 400,6 followers
UK 13.70% down x 1182 = 161.9 followers
Greece 13.40% down
Belgium 7.80% down X 1182 = 92.1 followers
Canada 3.80% down
Ireland 3.20% down x 1182 = 37.8 followers
Spain 2.60% down
Australia 1.90% up 0.10
Portugal 1.60% stable
Netherlands 1.60 stable
France 1.10% down
Germany 1.60% up
Mexico 1.10% stable

Reminder, on 16/8, with 1069 followers, the % where:
12 countries had market shares higher than 1%
USA 29.50 x 1069 = 315,3
UK 14.20 x 1069 = 151,7
Greece 12.30
Belgium 11.00 x 1069 = 117.6
Ireland 4.00 x 1069 = 42.8
Spain 3.20
Canada 3.20
NL 2.10
France 2.10
Australia 1.90
Portugal 1.60
Germany 1.30
(Mexico 0.50)

That means
+114 followers from 16/8 to 28/8
+86 US followers, from 315 to 401
+10 UK followers from 152 to 162
-26 followers from Belgium based followed from 118 to 92.
- 5 Ireland followers, from 43 to 38.

I love maths, stats, the full monty. I miss it (used to do a lot of that number crunching in the old days). So I am going to input some of the data so far into a spreadsheet and take the marketing analysis 1 level up from this very basic one. Will be fun!

OK then, bottom line today, +10.7% followers in 12 days, the ranking of the top 12 has been the same in spite of changes in the market shares (Mexico went from 0.5% to 1.10 by 24/8, that making the number of countries with market shares above 1% 13)

In absolute numbers, USA+UK account for 96 of the 114 net gain in followers (on Twitter).
22% of the Belgium based followers have been lost in those 12 days. Potential causes? Could be the wider content of @npthinking since the revamping, approximately 1 month ago, that now includes not only EU and other policy but applied philosophy, music, poetry, etc. which was also communicated via the @change of the username from the old @nppolicyanalyst. In the 30 days since these changes, the pageviews for the npthinking blog have gone up (more stats on that in the coming days) and the volume of followers of npthinking on Twitter has jumped from approx. 820 to 1182, ie 362 (+44.1%!!). As you can see from the graph at the top of this post, this jump improved on an always significant rate of increase in the last 3 months. Eg from 665 on May 27.
In effect @mpthinking following has "naturally" (no "fertilisers") grown 77.7% in 3 months (May 27 to August 28)!

To some extent, the growth of @npthinking followers in the last 30 days is due to the attempted merger of two accounts which was not executed as well as planned and which led initially to a 20% or less move of the followers of the second account to @npthinking (note: there was though a significant number of overlaps in the followers of the two accounts). One week after the merger (via deletion of the second account and notices to followers to move to the other one), from Aug 24 to Aug 31 the following of @npthinking had increased by a less than 25% of volume of followers of the other account, ie from 825 to 964. A gain of 139 "only" (considering the merger). Now, a month after the merger, the gaiu stands at +362 (+139 + 223). And on non-systematic inspection of the usernames of the new followers, it seems that most did not come from the other account).

The US was and remains the No1 market not only for my tweets but my blog posts as well.
US has 34.9% of the pageviews in the last 30 days (according to free blogger.com stats that come with the blog). That share is close to the US share in Twitter followers (both around 1 on 3).
No2 share of pageviews comes from the UK, but with 4.6%. The spread in npthinking blog pageviews in the last 30 days is wider across countries than thar of @npthinking tweets.


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BRs
Nick

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