Tuesday, January 26, 2010

UK out of recession in Q4 2009 but just barely (+0.1%)

According to preliminary data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics today:

The chained volume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The increase in output was due mainly to increases in distribution, hotels and restaurants and government and other services.

  • Output of the service industries increased 0.1 per cent.
  • Output in the production industries increased 0.1 per cent.
  • GDP decreased 3.2 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .

Contributions to growth

Distribution, hotels and restaurants was the largest contributor to the positive growth this quarter. Government and other services and total production also had significant contributions to the increase. This was partially offset by a small decrease in business
services and finance. Construction and transport, storage and communication were flat over the quarter.


Index of Production

The production industries increased 0.1 per cent compared with a decrease of 0.9 per cent in the
previous quarter. Manufacturing increased 0.4 per cent. Mining and quarrying increased 1.0 per cent and Electricity, gas and water supply decreased 3.3 per cent. The production industries decreased 6.3 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .

Construction

Construction growth was flat compared with an increase of 1.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
Construction decreased 4.9 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .


Distribution, hotels and restaurants

Distribution, hotels and restaurants increased 0.4 per cent compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. Motor trades and retail made the largest contribution to the increase. Distribution, hotels and restaurants decreased 0.5 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .

Transport, storage and communication

Transport, storage and communication growth was flat compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from post and telecommunications. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from transport support. Transport, storage and communication decreased 4.1 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .

Business services and finance

Business services and finance growth was flat compared with a decrease of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The most significant positive contribution was from real estate. This was offset by a significant negative contribution from banking. Business services and finance decreased 4.8 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4.

Government and other services

Government and other services increased 0.2 per cent, compared with a decrease of 0.2 in Q3 2009. Health made the largest contribution to the increase. Government and other services decreased 0.7 per cent between 2009 Q4 and 2008 Q4 .



The ONS release today includes this Background Note (excerpt):

Release policy

1. This release includes information available up to 20 January 2010.
Estimates of UK output, income and expenditure will be published on 26 February 2010.
A full set of quarterly national accounts will be published on 30 March 2010.
The preliminary estimate ofGDP for the first quarter of 2010 will be published on 23 April 2010.

2. Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. Tables 1 and 2 show summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. The result of the test is that the average revision is not statistically different from zero. The data used are consistent with that used in more detailed analysis that have been published in Economic Trends. The most recent article was published on the National Statistics website on
11 December 2006 and can be found at:
http://www/statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1694

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